EPAC: OTIS - Aftermath - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Recon thus far supports 95-100 knots but haven't sampled NE quad yet.

[Astromanía]

Zihuatanejo is on the track

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow 125kt FL winds. This has gotta be a major now

[Astromanía]

[aspen]

Wow 125kt FL winds. This has gotta be a major now

Probably a Cat 4 now with 125 kt FL and 115 kt SFMR. I didn’t expect it to take off this fast. Remember when this was supposed to die off as a weak TS?

[MarioProtVI]

It sucks though this is the last recon of the day. It’s literally going nuclear right now and seems like it wants to make a run for Cat 5.

[Astromanía]

Imagine if it makes landfall stronger than Lidia, two majors landfall in a season? Have this happened before?

[Iceresistance]

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S82R5.png

[ElectricStorm]

Might make a run for strongest EPAC Mexico landfall on record. Not to long after Lidia almost got there

[Astromanía]

The worst thing is that south Mexico is prone to mudslides

[Yellow Evan]

Imagine if it makes landfall stronger than Lidia, two majors landfall in a season? Have this happened before?

1976 had Liza and Madeline.

[Yellow Evan]

FL reductions support 110-115. Highest reliable SFMR is 106. Would probably set at 110 kt maybe 105.

[aspen]

962/17 eye drop. So that’s a 10+ mb pressure fall between passes, only 1hr 25 min apart. Unbelievable.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...OTIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...NOW EXPECTED TO BE AT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 99.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH


...13 KM/H


MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Otis has undergone very rapid intensification today. An eye became
apparent on visible satellite images only a few hours ago, embedded
in very deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
penetrated the eye around 1900 UTC and again around 2000 UTC, and
found that the maximum sustained winds had increased to near 110 kt
over a very small area near the center, while the central pressure
remarkably dropped around 10 mb from the first to the second center
fix. The intensity of Otis is well above the Dvorak satellite
estimates, and again underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance
in monitoring hurricanes.

Otis should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment
that will be conducive for further strengthening later today and
tonight. Vertical wind shear should not be too strong, with SSTs
near 30 deg C. Based on the observed changes, the short-term
official intensity forecast remains above the model guidance. The
system is now forecast to be at extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane status by the time it reaches the coast of southern Mexico
late tonight or tomorrow morning. After landfall, the system
should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The hurricane continues on about the same heading, or around 330/7
kt. For the next couple of days, Otis should move between a
mid-level ridge to the east and northeast and a trough to its
northwest. The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and is a little faster than the dynamical consensus.
On this track, the center of the hurricane will make landfall
within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Otis is forecast to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight
or early Wednesday, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.3N 99.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[zzzh]

Just for comparison, Wilma's deepening rate was 9.9mb/hr (sampled 4 hours apart).

[Astromanía]

So it has like 12hr-18hr over eater still

[Yellow Evan]

Looks kinda shear on IR with an eye struggling to clear out even if globals are diagnosing only about 10 knots of shear.

[Astromanía]

Looks kinda shear on IR with an eye struggling to clear out even if globals are diagnosing only about 10 knots of shear.

Mid level shear?

[Hurricane2022]

[KirbyDude25]

:lol:
https://imageshack.com/i/poqEJovkj

That's definitely getting changed in the TCR post-season, but for now, it definitely shows just how rapid Otis's intensification has been. Even after it's smoothed out to account for inaccuracies in pre-recon estimates, it still likely strengthened about 65 knots in 24 hours.