ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenCohenTC/status/1696244093980954818

[Iceresistance]

Here it is!

AF300 Mission #16 into FRANKLIN
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

[REDHurricane]

Eye is almost perfectly circular, very nice

[cycloneye]

Here it departs for a possible historic mission to find cat 5 winds.

[kevin]

Do we have an estimate for how long it'll take recon to reach Franklin? Recon missions like these are like the hurricane Super Bowl.

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

Recon was scheduled to depart at 2030Z, and they left around 1940Z

[kevin]

Recon was scheduled to depart at 2030Z, and they left around 1940Z

Not sure if they made the decision because of how impressive Franklin is rn, but either way I'm glad. Franklin is looking textbook-level perfect right now and every hour is another one for the EWRC roulette.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Recon was scheduled to depart at 2030Z, and they left around 1940Z

Not sure if they made the decision because of how impressive Franklin is rn, but either way I'm glad. Franklin is looking textbook-level perfect right now and every hour is another one for the EWRC roulette.

They were probably chomping at the bit to get on this storm . My guess is 135kts/933mb

Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

Do we have an estimate for how long it'll take recon to reach Franklin? Recon missions like these are like the hurricane Super Bowl.

If my math is right I think it’ll get there around 6pm EST or so. Add another 20 minutes between arrival and making it into the eye, and we might have our first center pass between 6:20-6:40. So like 2 more hours before we know how strong Franklin is.

Imagine it’s another Dorian lol.

[Iceresistance]

Stadium effect on Franklin, he's a beast.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggfV.gif

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really curious to see what the recon will find. Visible satellite imagery reminds me a lot of Dorian, but thankfully in a far more remote spot.

[Hurricane2022]

I think that recon will find Franklin at 150 kt/917 mb.

[WiscoWx02]

Do we have an estimate for how long it'll take recon to reach Franklin? Recon missions like these are like the hurricane Super Bowl.

If my math is right I think it’ll get there around 6pm EST or so. Add another 20 minutes between arrival and making it into the eye, and we might have our first center pass between 6:20-6:40. So like 2 more hours before we know how strong Franklin is.

Imagine it’s another Dorian lol.

I doubt it to be honest. Highly doubt it's a category 5. Either they find 155 mph winds or they find it undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Usually how it goes with systems like these.

[Iceresistance]

Do we have an estimate for how long it'll take recon to reach Franklin? Recon missions like these are like the hurricane Super Bowl.

If my math is right I think it’ll get there around 6pm EST or so. Add another 20 minutes between arrival and making it into the eye, and we might have our first center pass between 6:20-6:40. So like 2 more hours before we know how strong Franklin is.

Imagine it’s another Dorian lol.

I doubt it to be honest. Highly doubt it's a category 5. Either they find 155 mph winds or they find it undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Usually how it goes with systems like these.

ADT didn't accept the fact that Dorian was a Category 5 when Recon confirmed over 160 mph winds, and Franklin looks like Dorian based on structure.
Dorian 2019:

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggYx.jpg
Franklin 2023:

https://i.ibb.co/9tZ0kNt/frank.jpg
(Bottom Image from REDHurricane)

[zzzh]

ADT is trash for hurricanes in the open Atlantic, where tropopause height is generally low.

[aspen]

Recon should arrive around 6:30-6:40. Assuming an EWRC has not started by then, I expect Franklin to be in the 920s.

[Iceresistance]

Recon should arrive around 6:30-6:40. Assuming an EWRC has not started by then, I expect Franklin to be in the 920s.

Franklin just made a west wobble on satellite, is that a sign of an EWRC or characteristic of its intensity?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggrC.gif

[Sciencerocks]

I'll predict 925mb for first past...Probably 142knt flight level and 128-130knt smrf.

[FireRat]

Recon should arrive around 6:30-6:40. Assuming an EWRC has not started by then, I expect Franklin to be in the 920s.

Franklin just made a west wobble on satellite, is that a sign of an EWRC or characteristic of its intensity?
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggrC.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SggrC.gif

That is a perfect circle, no sign of ewrc yet imo, likely just a wobble,.and he looks to be peaking right now