ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

another reason for an eastward shift

 https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/1695779731415675379

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 10, 2023082712, , BEST, 0, 198N, 863W, 30, 1001, TD

[tolakram]

saved loop


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is just passing the Cayman Islands. Should be there soon

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A very tricky forecast. In many ways, similar to Ian although the intensity cap doesn't appear to be nearly as high. Cedar Key looks like a good bet for landfall IMHO

[GCANE]

12z Best Track:

AL, 10, 2023082712, , BEST, 0, 198N, 863W, 30, 1001, TD

https://i.imgur.com/PaBwdc2.png

Coincides with ASCAT and a quick warm-core feature on IR

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy at 700mb

[USTropics]

Busy day for recon, currently 2 flights in the air with AF getting ready to depart from LA (fingers crossed):

[Blown Away]

@19.7N/86W you can see the low level clouds of the COC moving ESE?

[GCANE]

Already 33 knts SFMR outside of some heavy convection.
IMHO, a good shot Miss Piggy will tag a TS later.

[IsabelaWeather]

My 30 years of watching these storms as a Florida west coast resident, has taught me a few things. Wherever they say it's going on the first few advisories, is never where it actually goes.

THIS!

NHC is very transparent about error and as good as nhc is, ian wasnt long ago so be on alert...the angle of approach makes it even more difficult

I would like to point out the first advisory track for Ian.

[chris_fit]

THIS!

NHC is very transparent about error and as good as nhc is, ian wasnt long ago so be on alert...the angle of approach makes it even more difficult

I would like to point out the first advisory track for Ian.
https://i.imgur.com/Ntdj0lx.png

Many advisories later on were way W of that pointing towards the pan handle.

[Blown Away]

Already 33 knts SFMR outside of some heavy convection.
IMHO, a good shot Miss Piggy will tag a TS later.

Please let us know where they tag the COC.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

You can see on the visible loops light shear impacting 10L right now from the north... likely from Franklin's inflow. Could also be impacting the track by driving it more south than expected?

[jlauderdal]

NHC is very transparent about error and as good as nhc is, ian wasnt long ago so be on alert...the angle of approach makes it even more difficult

I would like to point out the first advisory track for Ian.
https://i.imgur.com/Ntdj0lx.png

Many advisories later on were way W of that pointing towards the pan handle.

All the way up to the last 24 hours, that was 2022 so the forecasting level is about the same, beware folks, especially tampa south and dont focus on the line, a couple of wobbles and its your storm in a big way

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/1695781556168868195

[IsabelaWeather]

NHC is very transparent about error and as good as nhc is, ian wasnt long ago so be on alert...the angle of approach makes it even more difficult

I would like to point out the first advisory track for Ian.
https://i.imgur.com/Ntdj0lx.png

Many advisories later on were way W of that pointing towards the pan handle.

Ok? I am aware. Posters were saying being the landfall point in the first advisories means they don't get hit. That is not true, and not necessarily true with this storm. If you are in Pensacola to Naples I would prepare for the storm.

[Frank P]

Using the MSFC VIS SAT LOOPS, this certainly looks like the center of TD10.

https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-abi

[TallyTracker]

Using the MSFC VIS SAT LOOPS, this certainly looks like the center of TD10.

https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-abi

https://i.ibb.co/82jjZrw/IMG-3650.jpg

I agree that looks like the center. Not sure if it’s THE center or one of several. It appears to be moving NE at a good clip.

[GCANE]

Very strong surface winds in the MCS's
Largest so far is 67 knts