ATL: IDALIA - Models

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

18z suites seem to imply E trends have to stopped.

[tigerz3030]

https://i.imgur.com/KsKqMtO.png

Is this moving N or NE??

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

HMON, same general direction

[FLLurker32]

18z suites seem to imply E trends have to stopped.

Need to see 00z runs with atmospheric data first.

[chris_fit]

18z trending more W through 30hrs

[IcyTundra]

I would like to see a few more model runs with consistency but I feel that by the 12Z model runs tomorrow the track will be pretty locked in.

[tolakram]

18Z Euro (fast) running

[tolakram]

[chris_fit]

18z Euro pretty decent shift W! Good news for TB.

[IcyTundra]

Most models are starting to hone in on the Big Bend....

[LandoWill]

Always expected it to shift back west or panhandle based on the models, it just doesn't make sense, it's why tampa hasn't seen a hurricane in 100 years, it's not just luck. GFC has stayed west this entire time.

[tolakram]

Always expected it to shift back west or panhandle based on the models, it just doesn't make sense, it's why tampa hasn't seen a hurricane in 100 years, it's not just luck. GFC has stayed west this entire time.

Just luck, and someday it will end, possibly with this storm. Hoping we have good model solutions now, but the overnight runs will, again hopefully, give us the final answer.

[cheezyWXguy]

Always expected it to shift back west or panhandle based on the models, it just doesn't make sense, it's why tampa hasn't seen a hurricane in 100 years, it's not just luck. GFC has stayed west this entire time.

What about it doesn’t make sense or isn’t just luck? Can you elaborate?

[Jr0d]

18z suites seem to imply E trends have to stopped.

Need to see 00z runs with atmospheric data first.

This is crucial. Without it the models have a major blind spot they are currently guessing. As always the timing of the trough is crucial.

If Idalia's northward movement is slower than expected the next 48 hours, it will turn NE further south and make landfall further south than the current model consensus, consequencely if Idalia moves north faster and/or the trough is slower to develop, Idalia will make landfall further north/east of the forecast.

All the models show the trough enhancing the outflow so we will most likely have a strengthening hurricane at landfall.

With Charlie and Ian both turning making landfall further south of 48 to 72 hour projection, that makes me bias towards the storm being on the far right of the forecast envelope.

[LandoWill]

Always expected it to shift back west or panhandle based on the models, it just doesn't make sense, it's why tampa hasn't seen a hurricane in 100 years, it's not just luck. GFC has stayed west this entire time.

What about it doesn’t make sense or isn’t just luck? Can you elaborate?

Sure, what didn't make sense was the shift east by models, but once they got actual science input in them, they corrected themselves. The luck part was based on data, it seems like based on tampa's geographic location, cold fronts etc.. don't come far enough south to force it east, which is why the panhandle always gets them, same with louisanna and texas, Just the lucky tampa has, that being said. i am sure the once-in-a-century situation could present itself.

[CronkPSU]

Always expected it to shift back west or panhandle based on the models, it just doesn't make sense, it's why tampa hasn't seen a hurricane in 100 years, it's not just luck. GFC has stayed west this entire time.

What about it doesn’t make sense or isn’t just luck? Can you elaborate?

Sure, what didn't make sense was the shift east by models, but once they got actual science input in them, they corrected themselves. The luck part was based on data, it seems like based on tampa's geographic location, cold fronts etc.. don't come far enough south to force it east, which is why the panhandle always gets them, same with louisanna and texas, Just the lucky tampa has, that being said. i am sure the once-in-a-century situation could present itself.

Charley and Ian would like a word with you...

[hurricane2025]

Cst 3 or 4 coming

[Ianswfl]

18z suites seem to imply E trends have to stopped.

Need to see 00z runs with atmospheric data first.

This is crucial. Without it the models have a major blind spot they are currently guessing. As always the timing of the trough is crucial.

If Idalia's northward movement is slower than expected the next 48 hours, it will turn NE further south and make landfall further south than the current model consensus, consequencely if Idalia moves north faster and/or the trough is slower to develop, Idalia will make landfall further north/east of the forecast.

All the models show the trough enhancing the outflow so we will most likely have a strengthening hurricane at landfall.

With Charlie and Ian both turning making landfall further south of 48 to 72 hour projection, that makes me bias towards the storm being on the far right of the forecast envelope.

Thats what worries me from Tampa on down to Sarasota. This is moving slow and when it finally does move faster in the gulf a few wobbles make huge changes like in charley.

No time to evacuate.