WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

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aspen
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby aspen » Sat May 20, 2023 6:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TXPQ22 KNES 201813
TCSWNP

A. 02W (MAWAR)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 6.5N

D. 149.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GRDLY
IMPROVING ALQDS. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING/IRREG
CORE CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON


https://i.imgur.com/sCwjZkN.jpg

Pretty good microwave structure for such a young system, but the HWRF has been consistent with a scenario where Mawar takes like 2-3 days to sort out a rather messy and potentially broad inner core, so I don’t think we’ll see RI start for a few days.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 20, 2023 7:45 pm

JMA up to STS.

T2302(Mawar)
Issued at 2023/05/21 00:45 UTC
Analysis at 05/21 00 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°05′ (7.1°)
E148°55′ (148.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 440 km (240 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#63 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 20, 2023 8:10 pm

18z GFS more south and west, stalls east of the R.O.Taiwan then makes a loop and tracking the northern tip of it
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#64 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 20, 2023 8:12 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 210059
TCSWNP

A. 02W (MAWAR)

B. 20/2330Z

C. 6.9N

D. 148.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) WHICH
DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 4.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO A DT THAT DOES NOT EXIST.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#65 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 20, 2023 8:19 pm

18Z EPS
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 20, 2023 8:33 pm

Up to 50kt.

WP, 02, 2023052100, , BEST, 0, 68N, 1492E, 50, 993, TS
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#67 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 20, 2023 9:32 pm

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1660091846830477315


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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#68 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun May 21, 2023 3:34 am

02W MAWAR 230521 0600 7.6N 148.7E WPAC 60 989


JTWC's 60kts for 06Z is probably too high. Mawar is still sheared and not vertically stacked.

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#69 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 21, 2023 4:05 am

00Z EPS adjusted south again goes into Southern Taiwan
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#70 Postby aspen » Sun May 21, 2023 5:53 am


Agreed. It’s probably still around 50 kt or so. Like the HWRF has been showing for a while, Mawar will probably only slowly intensify and organize over the next few days. RI will probably wait until later this week when it starts moving WNW and passes over a bit of higher OHC west of the Marianas.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 21, 2023 6:24 am

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1660242758131494914


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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#72 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 21, 2023 6:44 am

Not the best look right now.

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#73 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun May 21, 2023 8:13 am

02W MAWAR 230521 1200 8.3N 148.1E WPAC 65 986
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#74 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 21, 2023 8:21 am

06Z
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#75 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 21, 2023 8:21 am

JTWC upgrades but JMA is still at STS.
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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#76 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun May 21, 2023 8:28 am

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1660275037977313280


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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#77 Postby GCANE » Sun May 21, 2023 9:28 am

 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1660120648218456065


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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#78 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun May 21, 2023 9:35 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:
02W MAWAR 230521 1200 8.3N 148.1E WPAC 65 986

02W MAWAR 230521 1200 8.0N 148.3E WPAC 70 986

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#79 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun May 21, 2023 11:17 am

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Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm

#80 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 21, 2023 12:02 pm

:uarrow:
Shear out of the east could aid development if it can get moving.
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