WPAC: KHANUN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 133.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A DEFINED CENTROID. MSI ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN
EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID AND IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 290455Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH INTENSE SPIRAL BANDING,
PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 290330Z BULLSEYE
SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALIGNING VERY
WELL WITH THE CENTROID LOCATION. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA,
THE 290000Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED 65NM SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. A PREVIOUS 282117Z
SMAP IMAGE DEPICTED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-50 KNOT
(1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA: 34KT WIND RADII WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE SMAP
DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SE OF TOKYO
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 290454Z
CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 290530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SHIFTED FORECAST TRACK WEST DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WILL TRACK NNW THROUGH
TAU 24 ALONG THE SW BOUNDARY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
34N 143E. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT EXPERIENCES
THE EFFECTS OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
NORTHERLY SHEAR, ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN THE NW QUADRANT. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE NW-WNW DUE TO THE STRONG
INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 85KT WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD RANGING FROM 117NM AT TAU 48 TO 135NM AT
TAU 60. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (AEMN),
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. GFS AND AEMN
INDICATE A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER OKINAWA WITH A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN
ALONG THE EASTERN CHINA COAST BUT GFS APPEARS TO BE TRACKING THE
SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS)
INDICATES A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FROM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
INLAND TO A SHARP POLEWARD TURN. THE 290000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS)
INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (80 PERCENT) OF A WNW TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A
POLEWARD TRACK. THE 290000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
84 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 132.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 637 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND PROXYVIS IMAGERY
DEPICT A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A CENTROID.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A RECENT SMOS IMAGE WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, A 291200Z ASCAT-C IMAGE RECEIVED LATE IN
THE WARNING CYCLE INDICATED THE CENTER IS LIKELY ABOUT 15 TO 20NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE INITIAL POSITION BUT WELL WITHIN THE 45NM POSITION
CONFIDENCE. A 290936Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A
BROAD AND DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATES BASED ON A 290905Z SMOS IMAGE SHOWING EVIDENCE OF 45 TO 55
KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA: ADJUSTED WIND RADII BASED ON A
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT SMOS IMAGE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SE OF TOKYO
EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 291130Z
D-PRINT: 46 KTS AT 291400Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: NORTHERLY FLOW (SHEAR INDUCING) IN NW QUADRANT
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WILL TRACK NNW THROUGH
TAU 24 ALONG THE SW BOUNDARY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
34N 143E. NORTHERLY FLOW CAUSING SHEAR IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN, ALLOWING TS 05W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE NW-WNW DUE TO THE STRONG
INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH FROM TAU 24 THROUGH 72. THE
TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 95
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM EAST OF TRACK,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
RANGING FROM 62NM AT TAU 48 TO 84NM AT TAU 60, WITH SIMILAR
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 40NM AND 43NM, RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE
290600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE IS ONLY INDICATING A LOW PROBABILITY (10 TO
20 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), RI GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED
FOR THE FIRST TIME INDICATING SOME INCREASED RI POTENTIAL THROUGH TAU
48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1685301287498186753

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

TXPQ26 KNES 291803
TCSWNP

A. 06W (KHANUN)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 17.7N

D. 132.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS JUST OVER .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

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WDPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.6N 133.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 592 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BECAME MORE ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRICAL. A DRY
SLOT WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST REMAINS; HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS,
ALBEIT FRAGMENTED AND TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD ARE FEEDING PERSISTENTLY
INTO THE CDO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
USING CLOUD MINIMUM WEDGE - CLOUD COMMA INTERPOLATIONS FROM THE
291800 EIR IMAGE AND FROM RECENT ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, SATCON, AND D-PRINT DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, STRONG
COMBINED OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST TEMPERED BY THE DRY AIR INTRUSION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
WITH N-S AXIS LINED OVER GUAM.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 291635Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 53 KTS AT 291900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTH.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS KHANUN WILL CONTINUE ON A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER.
AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL ASSUME
STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
TOWARD OKINAWA, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND
JUST AFTER TAU 48 PRIOR TO DRIFTING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AND
MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AROUND TAU 96. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AIDED BY
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SWITCHES TO THE
STR TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY
A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN 06W TO 65 KTS
AT LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE
INTERIOR WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID EROSION, AND BY TAU
120, TC 06W WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KTS, POSSIBLY WEAKER, AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 113 NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 485 NM BY TAU
120. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET UKMET UP TO TAU 72 THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WP, 06, 2023073000, , BEST, 0, 185N, 1328E, 60, 985, TS

[cycloneye]

TXPQ26 KNES 300001
TCSWNP

A. 06W (KHANUN)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 18.3N

D. 132.9E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A RAGGED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
AND EMBEDDED IN MG FOR A DT=4.5 MET=4.0 PT=4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[cycloneye]

SGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.5N 132.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 554 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) BECAME MORE ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRICAL WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A
RAGGED FORMATIVE EYE. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PERSISTS; HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS, ALTHOUGH FRAGMENTED, ARE TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND FEEDING PERSISTENTLY INTO THE CDO. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE
THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 292210Z SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND THE AUTOMATED CIMSS D-
PRINT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, STRONG
COMBINED OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST TEMPERED BY THE DRY AIR INTRUSION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST
WITH N-S AXIS LINED OVER GUAM.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS D-PRINT: 58 KTS AT 291800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTH.


ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS KHANUN WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER.
AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL ASSUME
STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD
OKINAWA, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE KADENA AB
AROUND TAU 48 PRIOR TO DRIFTING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA AND MAKING
LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AROUND TAU 90. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL FUEL A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AIDED BY INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SWITCHES TO THE STR TO A PEAK OF
95KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN 06W TO 65 KTS AT TAU 96.
AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE INTERIOR WILL
MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID EROSION, AND BY TAU 120, TC 06W
WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KTS, POSSIBLY WEAKER, AS IT TRACKS FURTHER
INLAND.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 108 NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 515 NM BY TAU
120 WITH AEMN AND GFS OFFERING A SHARP RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 72 THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Drifting buoy "5102805" recorded an MSLP of 984.9 mb near the center of STS Khanun at 20Z, and the system has continued to strengthen since then, suggesting that the central pressure is much lower now than JTWC and JMA's 00Z estimate of 985mb.






Most probably a typhoon now.

[Sciencerocks]

[dexterlabio]

Another running for Cat4 super?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA and JTWC in tight agreement on a landfall south of Shanghai, yet the GFS has started to deviate --- depicting impacts to stay mostly onshore and turn to Korea due to a stronger and longer-lasting trough.

With the rate it's organizing, Khanun may go past the forecasts right now well into major strength

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.5N 132.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 499 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 06W HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH A RAGGED EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 45
KNOTS AT 290600Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS DUE PRIMARILY
TO DECREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVING RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND A MOISTENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS ALLOWED CORE CONVECTION TO CONSOLIDATE
AND SPIRAL BANDING TO IMPROVE AS DEPICTED IN A 300422Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
60-68 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH AN OBLONG WIND
FIELD ORIENTED FROM THE SSW TO THE NNE. THIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 70 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE ADJUSTED
WIND RADII. THE MOST RECENT D-PRINT AND D-MINT ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT WITH REALISTIC ESTIMATES WHILE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 90 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR2 DATA: DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD REVEALED IN THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED SE OF TOKYO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 300436Z
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 300530Z
D-PRINT: 72 KTS AT 300700Z
D-MINT: 69 KTS AT 300422Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS WITH SOME MINOR SHIFTS IN TRACK
NEAR OKINAWA ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND SHORT-TERM
TRACK CHANGES. OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS, JTWC FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED
WITHIN A 50NM ENVELOPE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OKINAWA. TY 06W WILL TURN
GRADUALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH
LANDFALL EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CHINA COAST NEAR TAU 84. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER EASTERN
CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE 300000Z ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES
INDICATE A BIFURCATION IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE WITH TWO DISTINCT
CLUSTERS. THE FIRST CLUSTER SUPPORTS A WNW TRACK INTO CENTRAL CHINA
AND DISSIPATION SCENARIO. THE SECOND CLUSTER REVEALS A POLEWARD
TRACK OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN AND THE KOREAN
PENINSULA (NOTE: THIS COVERS THE NEXT 5 DAYS ONLY). DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD NEAR OKINAWA RANGING FROM 45NM AT TAU 36 TO 70 NM AT TAU 48.
ALTHOUGH THE JTWC FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RI
GUIDANCE TRIGGERED AND THE 300000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATING A 10
TO 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RI. AFTER TAU 48, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
DIVERGES WITH GFS, AEMN AND JGSM SLOWING AND TURNING POLEWARD WHILE
ECMWF, EEMN, NAVGEM AND UKMO TRACK THE SYSTEM WNW INTO EASTERN CHINA.
THE JTWC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WNW MODEL
GROUPING AND TRACK OVERLAND. THE MAJOR PROBLEM WITH GFS IS THAT THE
MODEL IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR TO THE NORTH WITH NO
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN THE ZONAL MIDLATITUDE FLOW. IN
FACT, THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE DISPLACED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF 40N WITH A BROAD MIDLATITUDE RIDGE OVER
NORTHEAST CHINA AND MANCHURIA. GFS RAPIDLY BREAKS THIS STR DOWN AND
ENVELOPS THE SYSTEM WITHIN A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED STR, WHICH EVENTUALLY DRIVES THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THIS
SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE BUT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A LOW PROBABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TXPQ26 KNES 301206
TCSWNP

A. 06W (KHANUN)

B. 30/1130Z

C. 20.4N

D. 132.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF
5.5 AFTER ADDING A 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.5 BASED ON RAPID 24HR
DEVELOPMENT. PT IS 5.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

T2306(Khanun)
Issued at 2023/07/30 12:50 UTC
Analysis at 07/30 12 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N20°20′ (20.3°)
E132°25′ (132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 130 km (70 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E750 km (400 NM)
W650 km (350 NM)

[cycloneye]

James Reynolods will chase Khanun in Okinawa.

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1685555259224346624

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/SouthFLwx04/status/1685653383636533248

[Sciencerocks]