ATL: FRANKLIN - Models

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NFZPN9Dw/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-fh24-132.gif [/url]

12z GFS… Uh oh, left turn signal on!!

Giving some Jeanne vibes with that hook back west

Lol that is highly unlikely.

[jfk08c]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NFZPN9Dw/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-fh24-132.gif [/url]

12z GFS… Uh oh, left turn signal on!!

Giving some Jeanne vibes with that hook back west

Lol that is highly unlikely.

Ok? Just said that model run reminded me of the loop around west Jeanne did in roughly the same area. Never said it would verify

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NFZPN9Dw/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-fh24-132.gif [/url]

12z GFS… Uh oh, left turn signal on!!

Giving some Jeanne vibes with that hook back west

GFS all on its own going ENE almost @8 degrees once above Hispaniola… All other models starting to adjust to a climatologically smoother N movement out of the Caribbean.

Also, 2004 is a analog used by Phil.

[Spacecoast]

TVCN/TVCX/OFCL Consensus tracks usually have lowest track errors...

[Blown Away]

TVCN/TVCX/OFCL Consensus tracks usually have lowest track errors...
https://i.ibb.co/Bjh6gvf/ef22.jpg

Let’s see this map later today once recent 12z models are imputed.

[Woofde]

Models usually end up adjusting closer to climatology as time grows nearer. A storm going the west to east over Hispaniola in August is very unusual. Though its not impossible, i would bet more on the models adjusting back west.

[Blown Away]

12z GEPS… Now show potential impact to SE Bahamas, SFL, EGOM.

[Beef Stew]

As currently forecast, it would definitely be an interesting track for this time of year, climatologically speaking. As others have said, continual westward shifts in the modeling, like we’ve seen in the 12z suite, would be more aligned with climo. Although they were October storms, with much different synoptic setups- Hazel, and more recently, Matthew come to mind track-wise for possible analogs should the signal for a more western solution post-Hispaniola grow stronger.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro stall's Franklin north of the Caribbean like it's not sure quite what to do with it forever before eventually going north.

[Blown Away]

12z euro stall's Franklin north of the Caribbean like it's not sure quite what to do with it forever before eventually going north.

You can see the flow, it’s all about timing coming out of the Caribbean.

[Ianswfl]

12z euro stall's Franklin north of the Caribbean like it's not sure quite what to do with it forever before eventually going north.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/7htC6d19/9-km-ECMWF-Global-Pressure-Southwest-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif [/url]

You can see the flow, it’s all about timing coming out of the Caribbean.

Possible it could be like the storm in your avatar and get more west?

[Blown Away]

12z euro stall's Franklin north of the Caribbean like it's not sure quite what to do with it forever before eventually going north.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/7htC6d19/9-km-ECMWF-Global-Pressure-Southwest-Atlantic-850-h-Pa-Rel-Vorticity.gif [/url]

You can see the flow, it’s all about timing coming out of the Caribbean.

Possible it could be like the storm in your avatar and get more west?

Franklin will be in similar spot Jeanne was before the idea of a loop was being considered.

[gatorcane]

Models have a come a long way since Jeanne not to mention it is no 2004 as far as Bermuda High strength so far. While one cannot completely rule out that scenario, it looks unlikely. 18Z guidance below;

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Still showing a stall/loop. I have low confidence Franklin moves almost due E past Hispaniola. I think we are closing in on a pattern change IMO.

[IcyTundra]

Models have a come a long way since Jeanne not to mention it is no 2004 as far as Bermuda High strength so far. While one cannot completely rule out that scenario, it looks unlikely. 18Z guidance below;

https://i.postimg.cc/MT5PJLRh/08-L-tracks-18z.png

True about the models being a lot better now but I do think we see some west shifts. Probably not all the way to the CONUS though.

[Spacecoast]

0z Tracks: Short term change from 18z. Now through central DR, rather than Haiti/DR border.

[ScottNAtlanta]

GFS has always had an out to sea bias when looking past 72 hours. I think it corrects west.

[ElectricStorm]

0z hurricane models:

HWRF gets to 984mb before Hispaniola
HMON 991mb at landfall
HAFS-A stays very weak and disorganized until north of the islands. 967mb at the end of the run
HAFS-B gets to 994mb before landfall, 974 at end of run

[kevin]

00z HWRF is very aggressive and intensifies from 996 mb to 984 mb between +24 and +30 hrs just before landfall. Afterwards it also shows fast intensification with a 949 mb MH at the end of the run moving NW after a Jeanne-like loop a bit further east (which can better be seen in the HWRF-parent).

HWRF-p

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks really awful this morning. It looks like an open wave almost. I do think this could be dangerous in the long term as it could miss the trough and head west.