ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

AL, 09, 2023082112, , BEST, 0, 248N, 890W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB12023 to al092023,

May I ask where you get the BTK updates so quickly when they haven't even appeared on NHC's FTP server?

[Steve]

I'm seeing "PTC 9" here, is this confirmed?

Best Track has it, NHC hasn't updated their site yet. Maybe a coming declaration and advisory package at 10?

[Subtrop]

AL, 09, 2023082112, , BEST, 0, 248N, 890W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB12023 to al092023,

May I ask where you get the BTK updates so quickly when they haven't even appeared on NHC's FTP server?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 092023.dat

[Extratropical94]

AL, 09, 2023082112, , BEST, 0, 248N, 890W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB12023 to al092023,

May I ask where you get the BTK updates so quickly when they haven't even appeared on NHC's FTP server?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 092023.dat

Thanks, much appreciated!

[Horn1991]

This thing is wrapping up.

[kevin]

Now also on the NHC website.

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the central Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).

[Steve]

Got a piece of a band coming through here where it's currently raining for the second time in a month or so. Shower looks to have missed the wildfire I'm watching out of my office window which I was hoping it was going to get so I could watch that.

[Subtrop]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

The broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico
continues to gradually become better organized with showers and
thunderstorms increasing on the system's north side. However,
surface observations and early morning visible satellite images
suggest that it does not have a well-defined center yet, and
therefore, does not meet the definition of a tropical cyclone at
this time. Since the system is forecast to strengthen and make
landfall as a tropical storm on Tuesday, advisories are being
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine with Tropical Storm
Warnings now in effect for portions of south Texas.

The disturbance is moving fairly quickly to the west at 14 kt on the
south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central U.S.
An even faster motion to the west or west-northwest is expected,
taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. It should
be noted that since the system does not yet have a clear center, the
details of the track forecast are a bit uncertain. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, which should help assess the low-level structure.

The environmental factors are generally favorable for the system to
strengthen. However, there is limited time for the disturbance to
take advantage of those conditions, especially since it still lacks
a well-defined center. The NHC official intensity forecast shows
the system reaching a peak intensity of 40 kt before landfall, which
is near the high end of the model guidance. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected
across South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of
Coahilla and Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 25.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/0000Z 25.5N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 22/1200Z 26.6N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 27.8N 100.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[kevin]

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Probably be one of those systems which will wrap up right before landfall and we'll wonder what would have happened if it had a few more hours of water.

[Steve]

Round 2 band here in New Orleans. There's hope for y'all farther west!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I could see this one getting as strong as 60 knots before landfall. I never doubt these rapid spinups anymore.

[jasons2k]

Got a piece of a band coming through here where it's currently raining for the second time in a month or so. Shower looks to have missed the wildfire I'm watching out of my office window which I was hoping it was going to get so I could watch that.

Some showers with the outer bands over towards NOLA. I’m hoping for something similar over here tomorrow. Hopefully I-10 isn’t a wall.

[MGC]

I'd venture to say that recon will find a TC later today. Y'all in Texas enjoy the rain.....MGC

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like recon is about to take off. I think they'll find a TC

[SconnieCane]

Sheesh. Get one (Emily) off the board and immediately another one pops up to take its place (although, we'll soon be losing Gert as well). Seems the bell rung extra loud this year.

[SoupBone]

Round 2 band here in New Orleans. There's hope for y'all farther west!

I wish. I don't see anything hopeful here in Houston yet, but even a half or so would be helpful in breaking this trend.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A male H-named storm on its way to SE Texas on the fourth week of August...

[mcheer23]

A male H-named storm on its way to SE Texas on the fourth week of August...

Harold is actually the name that replaced Harvey…