EPAC: JOVA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 061443
TCDEP1

Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Jova continues to rapidly intensify this morning. Infrared
satellite imagery shows deep convection, with very cold cloud tops
over the central core of the system. A SSMIS microwave pass at
1129Z revealed a well-defined core with a closed mid-level eye,
and a low-level eye vertically aligned with the mid-level center.
Hi-resolution 1-minute GOES visible imagery is also showing signs
of an eye. A blend of the Dvorak subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMMS are between 85
to 90 kt. Given the structure depicted on microwave imagery, will
lean towards the higher end of these estimates with the initial
intensity for this advisory set to 90 kt.

Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid
intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models continue
to show extremely high probabilities of further rapid
intensification. DTOPS and SHIPS guidance are both extremely high
and well above the climatological mean during the next 12 to 24
hours. The peak intensity has been raised to 125 kt in about 36 h.
Given the conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to favor the stronger model guidance with continued rapid
intensification. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus
aids and regional hurricane models. In about 3 days, Jova is
forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier
mid-level air, which should induce weakening.

Jova is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. The track forecast is
fairly straightforward. Jova is moving along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it
rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed.
The updated forecast track lies near the corrected consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.9N 112.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.0N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 19.2N 123.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 20.5N 125.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 22.9N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 24.9N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

[cheezyWXguy]

NHC is going to have to keep raising their intensity forecast at this rate, Jova is rapidly improving on satellite. The timing likely won’t work out, but I do wonder if there’s an outside chance of simultaneous cat 5’s if Lee picks up the pace further. Back-to-back is probably a better possibility though

[Yellow Evan]

Eye starting to clear. Category 5 by tonight???

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1149003501834342490/1694014182229351282.png

Eye starting to clear. Category 5 by tonight???

I’d wager if it’s gonna happen it would be tomorrow. A 55mph increase in winds in 12 hours would be remarkable. Absolutely remarkable.

[Yellow Evan]

[aspen]

Jova is far exceeding all of my expectations. Based on the global and hurricane models, I thought it would struggle to build a compact inner core and peak as a low-end 3 at the most. Now it has a real shot of becoming a Cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

Jova is far exceeding all of my expectations. Based on the global and hurricane models, I thought it would struggle to build a compact inner core and peak as a low-end 3 at the most. Now it has a real shot of becoming a Cat 5.

Where you went wrong is taking their outputs verbatim. GFS and ECMWF had been showing a highly divergent upper level pattern with low shear and the system was compact at the time of TCG so such broad slop never seemed particularly realistic.

[Ntxw]

Nice to see another big one OTS. Yeah the OP models can struggle verbatim, they seem to perform better with higher latitude systems that are broad and sprawling, maybe just an anecdotal observation.

[Yellow Evan]

Nice to see another big one OTS. Yeah the OP models can struggle verbatim, they seem to perform better with higher latitude systems that are broad and sprawling, maybe just an anecdotal observation.

Models these days are tied increasingly tied to 500 mbar height which hurts forecasting of barotropic processes (ie TCs) is my understanding.

[Yellow Evan]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1149003501834342490/1694014182229351282.png

Eye starting to clear. Category 5 by tonight???

I’d wager if it’s gonna happen it would be tomorrow. A 55mph increase in winds in 12 hours would be remarkable. Absolutely remarkable.

This is probably a major right now regardless of officially estimates and you’d be surprised how common ~35-40 knots of intensification is in 12 hours.

[galaxy401]

Not too shocked about Jova's quick intensification. It has literally the perfect environment right now.

[Sciencerocks]

Probably close to a major. Probably at 5pm.

[SconnieCane]

That pinhole. May actually be a photo finish between Jova and Lee unless A.) The 12Z HAFS-B run for Lee verifies and B.) Recon is there to document it.

[Yellow Evan]

06/1730 UTC 14.6N 110.9W T5.5/5.5 JOVA -- East Pacific

[Iceresistance]

That pinhole. May actually be a photo finish between Jova and Lee unless A.) The 12Z HAFS-B run for Lee verifies and B.) Recon is there to document it.

I don't think it is a Pinhole, but it is indeed small.

[Kingarabian]

Would say this is a major hurricane due to the nature of the eye.

[cycloneye]

Impressive.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 115 kt.

EP, 11, 2023090618, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1111W, 115, 953, HU

[Iceresistance]

18z Best Track up to 115 kt.

EP, 11, 2023090618, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1111W, 115, 953, HU

Skipped Category 3 and straight into Category 4

[SconnieCane]

18z Best Track up to 115 kt.

EP, 11, 2023090618, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1111W, 115, 953, HU

Skipped Category 3 and straight into Category 4

Otherwise known as "pulling a Delta," although that 2020 cyclone's bombing soon came to a screeching and (in my opinion, anyway) unexpected halt.