ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Forecast peak up to 55kts and they're still calling for a transition to TS in 6-12 hours, which doesn't seem to match up with the surface map forecast. I guess one of them is going to be wrong...

[ElectricStorm]

Updated cone

[seahawkjd]

In Carteret County. The winds are starting to pick up with some gusts getting to maybe 30 mph. The rain is steady. We are getting ready to try and get all the kids home safely and ride things out later today and tonight. It will be interesting to see how much it can develop between now and landfall.

[JRD]

The system has lost its cold front. It still has a warm front and two troughs attached so it can't be considered subtropical yet.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm surprised they're being so conservative naming this system given it's already causing tropical storm impacts.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm surprised they're being so conservative naming this system given it's already causing tropical storm impacts.

It's still extratropical so no need to name it yet

[Sciencerocks]

[mitchell]

This wind field model for Saturday morning, seems like it has the signature of a warm front to the NE of the system with the largest/strongest area of wind hundreds of miles from the storm center, a wedge-shaped warm sector with light SE winds to the east of the center, and light winds at the center except for a bit of 40 know winds over the water. This has the windfield signature of the northeaster-like system.

[syfr]

Looks like the potential for some surge up near Delaware and New Jersey

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1705260604792164454

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/SammyHadiWx/status/1705265966442074439

[Sciencerocks]

A decently defined wind field
990.7 mb so far
62 knt slight level
48 knt smrf

Enough for 50 knots

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

That really is a defined LLC. I'd upgrade to subtropical.

[Iceresistance]

We have Ophelia

...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22
Location: 32.7°N 76.0°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[HurricaneBelle]

It is now Ophelia.

WTNT31 KNHC 221751
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Given the recent ASCAT pass showing the front still being incredibly close to (if not directly connected to) the center (which admittedly has done a lot to establish itself and nearby convection in recent frames), I'm a little surprised the NHC went for a full TS designation so early. If I was at the desk I might've opted for a subtropical designation until the plane could investigate the northern and NW quadrants to confirm or deny the attachment of the front, as there's seemingly both tropical and extratropical characteristics right now.

Tropical: Warm-core, symmetric center and windfield, strongest winds occurring under deeper convection but not just limited to brief bursts; somewhat anticyclonic outflow aloft

Extratropical: Possibly still frontal (though lacking a cold front) and there's the potential for a wind shift with greater winds far away from the center compared to what has been surveyed so far; there's also the lingering influence of the nearby ULL, though that is also slowly detaching (or has detached already)

Curious to see what the rest of the recon flight finds.

[MarioProtVI]

Who’s ready for the wxman campaign of “Ophelia being non-tropical” no offense man I just know this was inevitable given your comments


On the other hand Ophelia seems to be following in 2005’s footsteps (also had an Ophelia dance near NC/SC but as a hurricane…don’t think this one will get that strong unless it suddenly follows the hi-res models).

[MarioProtVI]

Given the recent ASCAT pass showing the front still being incredibly close to (if not directly connected to) the center (which admittedly has done a lot to establish itself and nearby convection in recent frames), I'm a little surprised the NHC went for a full TS designation so early. If I was at the desk I might've opted for a subtropical designation until the plane could investigate the northern and NW quadrants to confirm or deny the attachment of the front, as there's seemingly both tropical and extratropical characteristics right now.

Tropical: Warm-core, symmetric center and windfield, strongest winds occurring under deeper convection but not just limited to brief bursts; somewhat anticyclonic outflow aloft

Extratropical: Possibly still frontal (though lacking a cold front) and there's the potential for a wind shift with greater winds far away from the center compared to what has been surveyed so far; there's also the lingering influence of the nearby ULL, though that is also slowly detaching (or has detached already)

Curious to see what the rest of the recon flight finds.

As wxman had said they named this despite that to raise public awareness. But it might still have a chance to fully shed the fronts but if it does it’ll be very close to landfall and it’s not a given guarantee.

[REDHurricane]

Good to see the NHC not being needlessly conservative with naming this storm. Sure, from a meteorological perspective it may not technically be a full-on (sub)tropical cyclone, but the NHC's job is to effectively alert the public about potential upcoming impacts, and obviously the impacts from this system in the next 2-3 days are going to be the same regardless of what it's called.