ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

NWS out of Melbourne, FL

Next Week...
Undoubtedly, all eyes will be on Hurricane Lee, which is currently strengthening on its trek westward across the Tropical Atlantic. The official forecast track takes the hurricane to major status, north of Puerto Rico, by Monday night. 06/12Z grand ensemble cluster analysis is in fairly good agreement with the upper air pattern across North America through the first half of next week. It is
characterized by high-latitude ridging across north and central Canada that extends into the Southwestern United States. Downstream across the Eastern U.S., a broad trough is expected to slowly migrate from the Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard between Monday and Thursday. Fortunately for Florida, this pattern is nearly the opposite of the analog to landfalling hurricanes of the past. In other words, an East Coast trough configuration similar to the current forecast, more often than not, tends to cause Atlantic
hurricanes to recurve before reaching our coast. Despite varying depths to the trough among the ensemble envelope, at this time all of the clusters show that it will do the trick to cause a gradual turn north for Lee by Tuesday or Wednesday well to the east of Florida (likely northeast of 20N/70W).

Now, here is the caveat. Although guidance remains in strong
agreement with this right now, we are still talking about a forecast 6-9 days out. Changes are always possible - and this is a good reminder that we are in the peak of hurricane season. You should always have your preparedness plans and supplies in place in the event a storm threatens us. Visit weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan.

[kevin]

Where Lee ends up slowing down will have a huge effect on its intensity. If Lee sticks South it will have ample amounts of high energy fuel. Further North and it's more dubious.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230907/bf0fff16fbd1f6fa07e71668d76696b7.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230907/fa06777786e46f639dafcf6de5744d64.jpg

Wow the cat 5 and <900 mb area in the open Atlantic has grown a lot the last few days.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80kt.

AL, 13, 2023090712, , BEST, 0, 161N, 494W, 80, 983, HU

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, I had a feeling Lee was going to start cleaning itself up overnight, but its current satellite appearance is further along than I would have expected. Grab your snacks and head to the theater, the show is about to begin

[kevin]

Roughly 10 - 11 more hours until the first recon reaches Lee. The way things are going I'm convinced it's gonna find a MH.

[ThunderForce]

I honestly can't tell if Lee is moving northward at all at the moment. It looks like a west or north of due west movement.

[REDHurricane]

Nice-looking anticyclonic outflow structure already

[Category5Kaiju]

Roughly 10 - 11 more hours until the first recon reaches Lee. The way things are going I'm convinced it's gonna find a MH.

At this point I think it's probably at least a Category 2.

[kevin]

Looks like a potent hurricane on its way to a MH. Crazy how much it has improved in the last 6 hours or so.

[KirbyDude25]

Roughly 10 - 11 more hours until the first recon reaches Lee. The way things are going I'm convinced it's gonna find a MH.

At this point I think it's probably at least a Category 2.

Given that the 12Z Best Track had this at 80 knots and it's likely strengthened a bit in the hour since, 85 knots is probably a reasonable estimate for its current intensity. I predict that the NHC's 11 AM advisory will have Lee at 85-90 knots, possibly 95. I agree with above comments that tonight's recon will likely find a major.

[Iceresistance]

Has anyone noticed that the NHC is forecasting Lee to peak at 155 mph already?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.1N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 16.8N 50.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 18.8N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 19.8N 57.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 22.5N 63.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 23.5N 65.9W 115 KT 130 MPH

[REDHurricane]

4 hours ago:


Now:

[Iceresistance]

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgPdn.png
4 hours ago as of this post, likely much better by now.

[SouthFLTropics]

It never ceases to amaze me how potent one of these things can get when all the pieces of the puzzle are just right at the right time. Fortunately, we haven't seen a dramatic case of this having a direct impact on a land area recently. I have to think that what we are about to see with Lee is similar to what happened with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, except that happened in the Florida Straits and left the Keys in a very bad position.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This video was posted on YouTube by Bernie Rayno at Accuweather last night and the gist of it is if the trough is weaker and further east (flatter) it will pick it up. If is is strong and deep it might not.

https://youtu.be/D6fNjCRSTxo?si=CwR7t5Rl42WCkXuU
I tried to embed it but couldn't figure it out

[TallyTracker]

4 hours ago:
https://i.ibb.co/SsmWsfL/0eedaddf-c7f0-4dd6-8c67-8ffb3b214fa6.jpg

Now:
https://i.ibb.co/fGRCNZW/467e091f-b9fd-4c89-a3d4-e575cdf2692d.jpg

The NE shear is clearly gone now. That’s very rapid improvement. I concur with everyone else. Rapid deepening has commenced!

[cycloneye]

[InfernoFlameCat]

What a storm this will become. I think it will look better than Sam.

[cheezyWXguy]

That is a textbook fist on satellite. I’d guess Lee is probably near 90kt right now

[aspen]

Roughly 10 - 11 more hours until the first recon reaches Lee. The way things are going I'm convinced it's gonna find a MH.

It’ll likely find a Cat 4 the way things are going this morning.

Lee is ahead of that HAFS-B run from yesterday that made it a sub-900 Cat 5. We’re gonna be in for a wild ride.