ATL: IDALIA - Models

[robbielyn]

The lesson i learned is until this is north of cuba we don’t know where this is going. these storms either go north or east with wobbling so in my mind with its location i hv no idea but be prepared anyway and hv a evac plan if needed and plan for the worst and hope for the best.

[toad strangler]

The lesson i learned is until this is north of cuba we don’t know where this is going. these storms either go north or east with wobbling so in my mind with its location i hv no idea but be prepared anyway and hv a evac plan if needed and plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Agreed, it's not like this system is heading for the northern Gulf Coast which runs for all intents and purposes from W to E. That S to NNW coast line of the Eastern Gulf can make any E move (even the slightest) have huge ramifications for landfall when coming in as close as modeled. As we have seen in recent history.

[TallyTracker]

I went through all of the Global and Hurricane Model runs from 00z and some 06z. Most of them are still coming in between St. Marks and Keaton Beach. The NHC track still seems to far east compared to the consensus. Am I seeing that right?

[chris_fit]

Most of the 06Z Hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF) are trending slower and more E (though not drastic, although the HWRF is almost a full degree south at 36 hours.)

HMON went more W.

[kevin]

06z hurricane models all seem to indicate a high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4 before landfall.

[caneman]

06z hurricane models all seem to indicate a high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4 before landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/6HnPGfO.png

https://i.imgur.com/Q88RnzY.png

https://i.imgur.com/DJ86wOH.png

https://i.imgur.com/zVlPG7D.png

Hmon and hwrf I highly doubt. It would need to move due North for those to verify

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS seems to want to jolt Idalia NW at some point today. That does not seem very realistic to me.

[chris_fit]

06Z EURO is running!

Noticeable W shift, slower, and stronger - and we're on hour 12. Going to be an interesting run!

[chris_fit]

Stronger @ 24hrs. Still slower and now maybe slightly E

[Cat5James]

06Z EURO is running!

Noticeable W shift, slower, and stronger - and we're on hour 12. Going to be an interesting run!

https://i.imgur.com/B2zVxO3.png

Euro shifted east of 00z. and is east of the gfs at 24 hours out

[chris_fit]

06Z EURO is running!

Noticeable W shift, slower, and stronger - and we're on hour 12. Going to be an interesting run!

https://i.imgur.com/B2zVxO3.png

Euro shifted east of 00z. and is east of the gfs at 24 hours out

At 12 hours it was W... now appears to be more or less like the previous run @ 30hrs.

[chris_fit]

Same exact spot as the 00Z Run - just quite a bit stronger. Such a compact storm!

[CronkPSU]

very interesting how many models have that NW movement for at least a few hours today, may be enough to save Tampa from much worse conditions if it verifies

[NDG]

Through 48 hrs 06z GFS is almost a spit image of its earlier track, a little slower and stronger.

[chris_fit]

Pretty comfortably W of Tampa @ 48hrs - No E shifts

[Blown Away]

06z Euro… Definitely stronger and landfall just N of Cedar Key. Nearly same spot as 00z.

[chris_fit]

06z UKMET - decent shift E, and to the right of the Official Track.

[kevin]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GpHGy83g/9-km-ECMWF-Global-00z-12z-3-Hourly-Southwest-Atlantic-MSLP-6.gif [/url]
06z Euro… Definitely stronger and landfall just N of Cedar Key. Nearly same spot as 00z.

Strongest Euro run so far if I recall correctly.

[tolakram]

Euro 6Z landfall

[NDG]

Today is a day to see if there is any late model shifts, with 48 hrs before landfall current track is not written on stone, but good to see the Euro stay consistent on a landfall spot within 10-20 miles for at least 4 runs in row.