ATL: IDALIA - Models

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#741 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:51 pm

chris_fit wrote:All I gotta say is, as a resident just south of Tampa. I'm grateful for these model trends.

The only thing concerning me at the moment is what she's actually doing... wobbling to the right it seems. Already right of the track and most models....

Red circle is where HH found the center just a few moments ago.

https://i.imgur.com/eU6zJlj.png


Are you sure that was a center fix?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#742 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:54 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:12z HAFS-B bombing out, sub 930 into Upper big bend area.


Historic **** there - going against the grain.
Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#743 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:54 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
chris_fit wrote:All I gotta say is, as a resident just south of Tampa. I'm grateful for these model trends.

The only thing concerning me at the moment is what she's actually doing... wobbling to the right it seems. Already right of the track and most models....

Red circle is where HH found the center just a few moments ago.

https://i.imgur.com/eU6zJlj.png


Are you sure that was a center fix?


Yup

Image
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#744 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:56 pm

Here we go...

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#745 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:58 pm

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#746 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:00 pm

12z Euro a little slower and left through 48 hours, with landfall further north up the big bend coast?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#747 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:04 pm

UK, west of previous run

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#748 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:06 pm

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#749 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:06 pm

Euro also slightly Left!

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#750 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:08 pm

12Z Euro also much stronger with 971 mb vs 987 mb
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#751 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:09 pm

chris_fit wrote:Euro also slightly Left!

https://i.imgur.com/pIfadaA.png


Almost all the models landfall within 50 miles of St. Marks now…wow! :eek: :double:
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#752 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:11 pm

12z GFS Ens

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#753 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:14 pm

NAVGEM with the slower/right shift.

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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#754 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:18 pm

Models are starting to hone in on the Big Bend
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#755 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:24 pm

And that's all she wrote for the 12z models - Cya around dinner time EST.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#756 Postby MJGarrison » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:24 pm

chris_fit wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
chris_fit wrote:All I gotta say is, as a resident just south of Tampa. I'm grateful for these model trends.

The only thing concerning me at the moment is what she's actually doing... wobbling to the right it seems. Already right of the track and most models....

Red circle is where HH found the center just a few moments ago.

https://i.imgur.com/eU6zJlj.png


Are you sure that was a center fix?


Yup

Image

Is it possible that this may have to do with the low and mid levels not being aligned?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#757 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:26 pm

MJGarrison wrote:
chris_fit wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Are you sure that was a center fix?


Yup

https://i.imgur.com/CdwpNnd.png

Is it possible that this may have to do with the low and mid levels not being aligned?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Very likely. We'll see where it consolidates. Many models still show a NW/NNW wobble coming up here shortly... we'll see.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#758 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:27 pm

I have 12Z Euro ~20 miles NW of 0Z Euro landfall, which was ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key. So, now ~50 miles NW of Cedar Key. It landfalls at ~10 AM Wednesday vs ~8AM Wednesday. And as already said, significantly stronger landfall with ~970 mb on 12Z Euro vs 987 mb on 0Z.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#759 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:29 pm

Image

12z Euro… About same as 06z
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models

#760 Postby Full8s » Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:29 pm

chris_fit wrote:NAVGEM with the slower/right shift.

https://i.imgur.com/5rOJjPN.gif



I don't love that. (Pasco County)
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