WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1682937992992935937

[cycloneye]

JMA to to STS.

T2305(Doksuri)
Issued at 2023/07/23 00:50 UTC
Analysis at 07/23 00 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°50′ (14.8°)
E128°55′ (128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E390 km (210 NM)

[cycloneye]

He is evaluating to see if he can go to chase.
 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1682940553108017152

[cycloneye]

Wow is organizing very fast.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.8N 129.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 464 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
STRENGTHENING CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE,
WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO
SHOWS EXTENSIVE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 222203Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEVERAL BANDS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING
OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION
OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REPORTING T3.5. ALONG WITH
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ADT SHOWING 57
KNOTS AND SATCON SHOWING 50 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 222020Z
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 222020Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (05W) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS),
ALONG WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
TUTT-CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TS
05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. BY TAU 24, AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN CHINA AS THE STR IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND REORIENT VERTICALLY, AS A RESULT THE STR WITH STEER THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WHILE CROSSING OVER A POOL OF VERY WARM SSTS, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC). THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, 05W IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN TAIWAN WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE BACK OVER THE TAIWAN
STRAIT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY A 70NM SPREAD IN
TRACK SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FROM 80NM AT TAU
72 TO 270NM BY TAU 120. UEMN REPRESENTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE AVNO AND AEMN MAKE UP THE EASTERN EDGE.
HOWEVER, AVNO AND AEMN HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST FROM
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE AVNO AND AEMN SOLUTIONS AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SIZABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE PEAK INTENSITY.
ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED
LENDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE IMMINENT RI PHASE ALONG
WITH THE HAFS-A WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 120 KNOTS BY TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72 ALL MODELS GENERALLY FLATTEN OUT AND EVENTUALLY
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

EPS 18Z northeastern tip landfall...

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

00z

[Kingarabian]

00z
https://i.imgur.com/Dy0divz.png
https://i.imgur.com/RZqkGZh.png

Ensembles slowly backing off a Taiwan landfall?

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.9N 128.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 722 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES THAT TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DOKSURI) HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY. THE ANIMATED MSI SUGGESTS THAT THE VORTEX REMAINS
SLIGHTLY TILTED, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CAN BE
SEEN WITHIN THE BROAD, RAGGED EYE, DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX CENTER. BUT THE INNER CORE IS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING AND UNDERGOING AXISYMMETRIZATION, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
A PERIOD OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STEADILY IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE MSI SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL SPOTTY
AROUND THE NASCENT EYE FEATURE AND HAS AS OF THE 230700Z HOUR NOT
YET FORMED A COHERENT EYEWALL, BUT ITS ALMOST THERE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT
230600Z WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON T4.0 DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RCTP, WITH
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE ADT ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS AND A DPRINT
ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. A HINT OF WHAT IS TO COME IS PROVIDED BY THE
ADT RAW, WHICH AS OF 230700Z IS ALREADY UP TO T5.7. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS)
DEPICT DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY TO
POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE
SYSTEM, ENHANCED BY CONTINUED FLOW INTO THE TUTT-CELL THAT REMAINS
NORTHEAST. OF NOTE, ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SLIDING SOUTH
OF 30N TO THE EAST OF JAPAN AT PRESENT. THE OUTFLOW OF TY 05W HAS
NOT YET REACHED THAT FAR NORTH, BUT SOON WILL AND THEN THINGS WILL
GET REALLY EXCITING. IN ADDITION TO THE ROBUST OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT,
THE SYSTEM SITS IN A POCKET OF LITTLE TO NO SHEAR AND IS MOVING
OVER ZESTY 30C WATERS WITH HIGH OHC EXCEEDING 90 KJ PER CM2 AND
GETTING HIGHER. TO SUM IT UP, CONDITIONS COULD NOT BE BETTER FOR
NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 230416Z
CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 230610Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE ONSET OF RI HAS BEEN MOVED
EARLIER IN THE FORECAST, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED BY 10
KNOTS AND SHIFTED EARLIER IN THE FORECAST, WHILE THE TRACK
CONTINUES TO WALK SOUTHWESTWARD.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. CONTRARY TO
EARLIER FORECASTS, THE STR HAS NOT WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY, IN FACT
IT REMAINS VERY FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FROM THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU ALL
THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CHINA. HENCE, A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MANCHURIA AND DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CHINA. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE
THE STR ENOUGH TO GENERATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AFTER TAU 24, WHICH
WILL INDUCE TY 05W NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE BREAK IN
THE RIDGE AND THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF TY 05W. THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36, CONTINUING ON THIS
TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ON THE CURRENT TRACK,
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND TAU 96 FOLLOWED BY A TRACKING INTO EASTERN CHINA BY TAU
120. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE REAL SHOW IS ABOUT TO BEGIN. ONCE
THE OUTFLOW REACHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ESTABLISH A CHANNEL INTO
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH OF 30N, THE SYSTEM WILL
EMBARK UPON A PERIOD OF EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI),
FUELED BY THE ROBUST OUTFLOW, LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM, HIGH OHC
WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 60 KNOTS OF INTENSIFICATION
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PEAKING AT LEAST AS HIGH AS 125 KNOTS BY TAU
48. A HIGHER PEAK AND HIGHER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY, DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH THE INTENSITY GETS BEFORE MOVING
INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER, LOWER OHC WATERS JUST AFTER TAU
48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE
TO REDUCTION IN THE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY POWERFUL TYPHOON UPON
LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WHILE THE MODEL ENVELOPE ITSELF HAS SHRUNK IN
TERMS OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, WITH ABOUT 215NM SPREAD AT TAU 72,
BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC TRACKERS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE
THEIR STEADY WALK TO THE WEST WITH THIS MODEL RUN. THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MEAN NOW LIES OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF TAIWAN, VERY
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER WHILE THE GFS AND GEFS
MEAN HAVE ALSO MOVED WEST BUT STILL LIE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CONSENSUS ENVELOPE. OF NOTE, THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACK NOW
CLIPS THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON AT TAU 60 BEFORE TURNING NORTH
TOWARDS TAIWAN AND THE NAVGEM TRACKER PERSISTS IN TAKING THE SYSTEM
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL LUZON. THE JTWC FORECAST SHIFTS WEST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS
MEAN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF
THE PERSISTENT WESTWARD DRIFT AND WIDE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW, PARTICULARLY
AFTER TAU 72. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A RI SCENARIO, WITH EVEN THE NORMALLY SLUGGISH
DECAY-SHIPS JUMPING ON BOARD. ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IS PROVIDED BY
THE 85 PERCENT RI PROBABILITY IN THE 230000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RUN
AND THE FACT THAT EVERY ONE OF THE AVAILABLE RI AIDS IS SHOWING
EXTREMELY HIGH PROBABILITIES, BEYOND THAT SEEN IN ANY OTHER STORM
TO DATE. THUS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST OF RI IS MADE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH THE PEAK COULD BE EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND TAU 72 IS
MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY INTENSE TYPHOONS
INCLUDING POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES (EWRC).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z
https://i.imgur.com/Dy0divz.png
https://i.imgur.com/RZqkGZh.png

Ensembles slowly backing off a Taiwan landfall?

Hmm hard to say but spread is becoming more tight I say

[cycloneye]

TXPQ25 KNES 231156
TCSWNP

A. 05W (DOKSURI)

B. 23/1130Z

C. 15.2N

D. 127.8E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN DG RESULTS
IN A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OVER 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[cycloneye]

Doing RI.

05W DOKSURI 230723 1200 15.1N 127.7E WPAC 80 972

[cycloneye]

[REDHurricane]

And off she (he?) goes:

[Hayabusa]

09Z SMAP, 70 knots...

WP, 05, 202307230922, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1510N, 12770E, , 1, 65, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 7, 7, 115, 140, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 05, 202307230922, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1510N, 12770E, , 1, 65, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 88, 62, 50, 61, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 05, 202307230922, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1510N, 12770E, , 1, 65, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[Hayabusa]

06z

[Teban54]

And off she (he?) goes:

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdXpmYmRmdTMwajd1bzhsdnRlNDhiZXo2NDNreWtzajk2b2FrZ2picCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/T80eztcsyFkiIJwCXy/giphy.gif

Doksuri means "eagle" in Korean. With most WPAC names, it's probably better to refer to them as "it" rather than he/she.

[Kingarabian]

Because of its size could be anywhere from 60-70kts.

[mrbagyo]

This thing is huge, diameter of gale force wind is more than 650 kilometer