ATL: OPHELIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Some of the strongest reported winds from recon were on the SW side when they approached the center

[aspen]

Who’s ready for the wxman campaign of “Ophelia being non-tropical” no offense man I just know this was inevitable given your comments

It’s better than Odette, that’s for sure. I’m not really going to criticize this upgrade because it’s close to land and that recon pass looked pretty solid despite the nearby/attached front.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMO, the NHC had any doubt Ophelia was still non-tropical, they would have just called it a subtropical storm. But no, they clearly had evidence to take it all the way to tropical storm status.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Who’s ready for the wxman campaign of “Ophelia being non-tropical” no offense man I just know this was inevitable given your comments

It’s better than Odette, that’s for sure. I’m not really going to criticize this upgrade because it’s close to land and that recon pass looked pretty solid despite the nearby/attached front.

It looks like a sheared tropical storm to me. There are fairly strong winds fairly close to the center in each direction recon has been able to sample

[HurricaneEnzo]

Gonna have to respectfully disagree with them naming this one which I rarely do. Not even close to being Tropical imo. Probably will increase awareness though for some folks so probably for the best.

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[ScottNAtlanta]

Norfolk is already reporting sustained winds of 20mph

[Sciencerocks]

I would name it as
1. Very defined LLC
2. Defined wind field
3. Shallow warm core
4. Able to sustain convection even in the face of strong shear.

Sure, I would have want subtropical but it deserves its name.

[SecondBreakfast]

From a science communications standpoint, I think naming is a great choice.

[cycloneye]

Gonna have to respectfully disagree with them naming this one which I rarely do. Not even close to being Tropical imo. Probably will increase awareness though for some folks so probably for the best.

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'
It had recon data to support the upgrade.

[Steve]

Definitely some shear out the S that has inhibited development and forced it to be north-weighted, but Ophelia is trying to wrap around from the W on the southern end of the circulation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Maybe can see it better on HI-Res...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Appears to be related to land/coastal interaction. Could pull it slightly toward the W (so NW instead of NNW) if that convection maintains. Also looks like at least 2 or 3 centers spinning around the broader circulation.

[MarioProtVI]

75 kt FL @ 850 mb and several 58-60 kt SFMRs in NW quadrant. Is this thing trying to become a hurricane???

[xironman]

Looks close to 60kt sfmr, and a 75kt flight level, shouldn't there be hurricane watches up?

[WalterWhite]

It looks like a subtropical storm to me. That still does not affect the fact that it deserves a name and the ACE it contributes to the season.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd go 60 knots at 5pm. I'd also highlight the possibly of this becoming a hurricane and raise hurricane warnings.

[aspen]

I'd go 60 knots at 5pm. I'd also highlight the possibly of this becoming a hurricane and raise hurricane warnings.

I agree. There was also a drop near the max winds that found 58 kt at the surface, so this is likely at 60 kt.

[wxman57]

Definitely looking more tropical now. I have 60 kts in my latest advisory. I think NHC will upgrade it to a hurricane this afternoon.

[WalterWhite]

Has NHC ever revised an operationally tropical cyclone into a subtropical cyclone in a Tropical Cyclone Report?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dropsonde that reported a surface wind of 66kts. Big convective blowup right over the center.
Don't forget this is sitting right on top of the Gulf Stream right now

[ScottNAtlanta]

Center drop 987 12kt wind

[WalterWhite]

Up to 55 knots

AL, 16, 2023092218, , BEST, 0, 327N, 760W, 55, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 30, 70, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,