ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Blown Away]

18z GFS…

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the 18z GFS initialization was poor. Too weak, too far west.

[NFLnut]

Surprised no one posted the 12GFS Idialia loop back into Florida then Louisiana, so here it is.

https://i.imgur.com/1nGNrgO.gif

EURO hints at a stall NE of the Bahamas but not a loop. GFS seems to be an outlier swooping back into Flagler county. But I also noticed this and posted it to my Fakebook peeps around 1pm.

Though I don't remember it going into LA. It circles into Flagler and then a NE cut back into the Atlantic.

[IcyTundra]

Throw out the 18Z GFS for intensity.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 18z GFS with that loop around and back into Florida and back up the west coast is not even remotely funny. Thank goodness, so far it is the only one that has been showing that. After the GFS poor performance over the last week, I'll take each of these runs with a grain of salt. Hard to have any confidence in it.

[NFLnut]

The 18z GFS with that loop around and back into Florida and back up the west coast is not even remotely funny. Thank goodness, so far it is the only one that has been showing that. After the GFS poor performance over the last week, I'll take each of these runs with a grain of salt. Hard to have any confidence in it.

Yeah .. I had Hurricane Jeanne flashbacks when I saw that nonsense. Jeanne was almost outta here and then someone said something she didn't like and circled back and pummeled our arses! Everybody say only "nice" things about Idalia. Please.

[SunnyThoughts]

[Blown Away]

18z GFS…

[Woofde]

Yeah this Hafs-A run goes pinhole and drops 25 mb in 6 hours. Yikes.

[Noles2016]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hafsa/2023082818/hafsa_ref_10L_13.png

Yeah this Hafs-A run goes pinhole and drops 25 mb in 6 hours. Yikes.

Very slight shift west for HAFS-A and HAFS-B..

[Noles2016]

Yeah this Hafs-A run goes pinhole and drops 25 mb in 6 hours. Yikes.

Very slight shift west for HAFS-A and HAFS-B..

HMON slight shift east. Seems like they're all zeroing in on Taylor County.

[LandoWill]

Very slight shift west for HAFS-A and HAFS-B..

HMON slight shift east. Seems like they're all zeroing in on Taylor County.

Far enough north, it might not but a few showers in tampa in that route, depends obviously on size of storm etc. But if you just go by these models "Radars" like the gfs, it's all offshore

[NDG]

18z Euro shifted to the west, landfall near 11 AM Wed.

[syfr]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/76jW2vSj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh24-216.gif [/url]

18z GFS…

I read this first as "inches/hr" rain rate and being in ECentral NC, I was going to go buy a canoe.

[otowntiger]

18z Euro shifted to the west, landfall near 11 AM Wed.

https://i.imgur.com/9Sa5tLp.png

That is quite the west shift I’d say!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Current position of Idalia as of 8pm is further east than the starting point of the 18z GFS. It's not much, we're talking 20 miles or so, but it's there.

[Poonwalker]

Hafs shows a consistently front loaded storm. Would hate to have a house in its path if that pans out.

[Ianswfl]

Well based on some of the ensembles, Florida might get a round two visit from her.

[ScottNAtlanta]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/76jW2vSj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh24-216.gif [/url]

18z GFS…

No...just no...that's not allowed. One turn per storm in the GoM and that's it!

[tolakram]

Looking at the HAFS-B simulated IR, pretty accurate depiction of this evenings blowup.