ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[REDHurricane]

As soon as those thunderstorms wrap all the way the inner core from southeast to southwest it'll be go time

[Chemmers]

I think this might be one of the hardest storms to predict the intensity at landfall, with the record warm water in the gulf, especially the 31, 32c around florida

Stay safe everyone

[cheezyWXguy]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/mZm2KmnF/ezgif-5-bb561284ac.gif

Yep, this is what I was getting at a few pages back. Hot towers rotating around the center is not typically seen with a 40mph ts. Recon will probably find this tonight at 60+ if this pattern continues, or at least a few mb deeper than the last flight

[Landy]

[REDHurricane]

Tropical Afternoon Update from the NHC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxhVgpyeS-4

[Jr0d]

We still may see the center reformation as it's not well defined based on radar and recon data. If this happens it would be most likely be further east...which should shift the forecast more to the right.

My take is a slower with turn east further south, where a faster moving storm will make it further north before the trough gets it to turn northeast.

Dont want to speculate on winds but I will be surprised if this is not a major at landfall. I can hope that it moves fast enough to limit surge.

Radar from Cuba:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Owasso]

Wow, some of these cloudtops are getting to -90C

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking upper TS, perhaps a Cat 1 out of this, although considering it's the Gulf I wouldn't all that surprised if it tries to ramp up more than that.

Looks like potentially another dangerous I storm...

This is the 5th post of this thread and our friend said it all well as is happening.

Definitely not surprised it's trending towards a stronger storm in the Gulf. We'll have to see if it ends up clipping Cuba or not, which could somewhat limit it for at least a few hours but either way the chances of a major are going up quite a bit.

[underthwx]

Hopefully, once the cyclone emerges into the Gulf, it will move quickly along whatever path it takes, and passes thru all areas with minimal impacts for yall....

[eastcoastFL]

I don't think we will have a solid idea about track or intensity until it begins its trek north and then north east. A lot of timing and factors in play with the trough. We probably will have a clearer idea late tomorrow night.

[johngaltfla]

I'm thinking upper TS, perhaps a Cat 1 out of this, although considering it's the Gulf I wouldn't all that surprised if it tries to ramp up more than that.

Looks like potentially another dangerous I storm...

This is the 5th post of this thread and our friend said it all well as is happening.

Definitely not surprised it's trending towards a stronger storm in the Gulf. We'll have to see if it ends up clipping Cuba or not, which could somewhat limit it for at least a few hours but either way the chances of a major are going up quite a bit.

That part of Cuba is not an inhibiting factor. It is not wide enough to disrupt the flow as the storm moves North.

[cycloneye]

This is the 5th post of this thread and our friend said it all well as is happening.

Definitely not surprised it's trending towards a stronger storm in the Gulf. We'll have to see if it ends up clipping Cuba or not, which could somewhat limit it for at least a few hours but either way the chances of a major are going up quite a bit.

That part of Cuba is not an inhibiting factor. It is not wide enough to disrupt the flow as the storm moves North.

That area of Pinar del Rio does not have tall mountains and is flat.

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely not surprised it's trending towards a stronger storm in the Gulf. We'll have to see if it ends up clipping Cuba or not, which could somewhat limit it for at least a few hours but either way the chances of a major are going up quite a bit.

That part of Cuba is not an inhibiting factor. It is not wide enough to disrupt the flow as the storm moves North.

That area of Pinar del Rio does not have tall mountains and is flat.

Well that wouldn't hurt it much then. Yeah pretty concerning all the way around now

[ConvergenceZone]

We still may see the center reformation as it's not well defined based on radar and recon data. If this happens it would be most likely be further east...which should shift the forecast more to the right.

My take is a slower with turn east further south, where a faster moving storm will make it further north before the trough gets it to turn northeast.

Dont want to speculate on winds but I will be surprised if this is not a major at landfall. I can hope that it moves fast enough to limit surge.

Radar from Cuba:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

I think a major isn't out of the question if it tracks more north than East. If it tracks more east, then I'll go with a Cat one cane(assuming a Tuesday Night landfall due to a pronounced eastward shift).

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, some of these cloudtops are getting to -90C

https://i.postimg.cc/3JmkDXRS/7-FED1-A75-D316-40-CA-BF8-D-1-B169236-E602.png

Yea, it's looking much better than this morning's sheared mess.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/BraxBanksOKWX/status/1695935844056445236

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wouldn't be surprised if this blow up in thunderstorms causes the LLC to start moving even more erratically.

[Landy]

Lots of lightning activity.

[SconnieCane]

Should be noted that with the possibility of both an intense MH and a Big Bend landfall strongly on the table; that while the coastal regions of the Big Bend are sparsely populated, what is there is mostly trailers and RV parks and this thing has the potential to carry major hurricane-force winds well inland, as Michael and Ian did. No (or few) post-Andrew building codes at play here.

[zzzh]

Pressure keeps falling on Buoy 42056, now at 998.8mb