ATL: IDALIA - Models

[Coolcruiseman]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/76jW2vSj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh24-216.gif [/url]

18z GFS…

Being on the Space Coast um yeah no thank you. No loopback needed.

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/76jW2vSj/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh24-216.gif [/url]

18z GFS…

Being on the Space Coast um yeah no thank you. No loopback needed.

One of the euro ensemble members brings it back to a hurricane heading for Bahamas and South FL. I think decent shot at it coming back around.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1696298711616221651

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Has all the new synoptic data been uploaded into the models yet? When will the next runs be to incorporate all of the new incoming data? Until that comes in and a good center fix is input as well, these are just the windshield wipers we always see at this timeframe when the setup is a little more complex. I'm not gonna freak out, nor relax, until the next run that includes the synoptics.

[Poonwalker]

https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1696298711616221651?s=20

That’s my fear. Pinellas would be in serious trouble if that were the track

[Bocadude85]

The 0z Icon still ends up with a similar landfall location to the 18z, but what is interesting is the 18z run was to far west in the short term, something feels off to me with these models. I mean compare the 0z run 3 hour location on the ICON to its 18z 9 hour location. If models are off in the short term how can we be sure they won’t be in the long term. It’s also noticeable on the 0z GFS in the short term.

[chaser1]

I am curious just how much of a delay in timing could ultimately cause the anticipated northeasterly (or ENE) turn to occur further south then presently forecast?

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS would bring hurricane force winds to Tallahassee

[Poonwalker]

I am curious just how much of a delay in timing could ultimately cause the anticipated northeasterly (or ENE) turn to occur further south then presently forecast?

Is the system moving slower than the models are predicting?

[Bocadude85]

I am curious just how much of a delay in timing could ultimately cause the anticipated northeasterly (or ENE) turn to occur further south then presently forecast?

Is the system moving slower than the models are predicting?

The 0z cycle looks to be faster and farther west thus far…NHC did mention that Idalia had slowed somewhat this evening…so not really sure what to make of it.

[chaser1]

I am curious just how much of a delay in timing could ultimately cause the anticipated northeasterly (or ENE) turn to occur further south then presently forecast?

Is the system moving slower than the models are predicting?

The 0z cycle looks to be faster and farther west thus far…NHC did mention that Idalia had slowed somewhat this evening…so not really sure what to make of it.

May of simply been a blip that in the grand scheme of things, meant very little. I say that because the storm now seems to clearly be on the move to the north.

[Ianswfl]

Is the system moving slower than the models are predicting?

The 0z cycle looks to be faster and farther west thus far…NHC did mention that Idalia had slowed somewhat this evening…so not really sure what to make of it.

May of simply been a blip that in the grand scheme of things, meant very little. I say that because the storm now seems to clearly be on the move to the north.

Of course I know this 90 percent wouldn't happen but if she started to scoot along and went more northeast and headed right for the Bradenton area, what the heck would they do with hours notice? Just tell everyone drive north away from the core?

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, Tallahassee is really under the gun so far on the 00z models . They're currently not under a hurricane warning but I hope people have been preparing.

[Stormcenter]

Canadian model is now jumping on the loop bandwagon
too.

[Ianswfl]

Canadian model is now jumping on the loop bandwagon
too.

Right into South FL! Do you believe with the warm waters this will only be a TD though? If it gets south enough before turning west and avoids shear this could be a problem.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: after the 12Z UKMET had a 65 mile NW shift to Apalachee Bay, the 0Z is similar with no more than a slight E adjustment. So, most of the 12Z 65 mile NW shift is retained on the 0Z:

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2023 0 21.8N 85.1W 994 50
1200UTC 29.08.2023 12 23.6N 84.8W 993 51
0000UTC 30.08.2023 24 26.4N 85.1W 991 43
1200UTC 30.08.2023 36 29.2N 84.4W 987 47
0000UTC 31.08.2023 48 32.1N 82.5W 989 41
1200UTC 31.08.2023 60 34.0N 79.7W 994 40
0000UTC 01.09.2023 72 34.4N 76.0W 999 38
1200UTC 01.09.2023 84 34.2N 73.4W 1003 43
0000UTC 02.09.2023 96 33.4N 71.2W 1006 37
1200UTC 02.09.2023 108 30.8N 71.2W 1007 34
0000UTC 03.09.2023 120 30.9N 70.6W 1007 30
1200UTC 03.09.2023 132 30.3N 71.6W 1008 27
0000UTC 04.09.2023 144 30.2N 72.0W 1008 26
1200UTC 04.09.2023 156 CEASED TRACKING

[Steve]

The 0z cycle looks to be faster and farther west thus far…NHC did mention that Idalia had slowed somewhat this evening…so not really sure what to make of it.

May of simply been a blip that in the grand scheme of things, meant very little. I say that because the storm now seems to clearly be on the move to the north.

Of course I know this 90 percent wouldn't happen but if she started to scoot along and went more northeast and headed right for the Bradenton area, what the heck would they do with hours notice? Just tell everyone drive north away from the core?

City and Manatee Co would call for coastal evacuations and also low-lying areas around the waterways. Otherwise it would be shelter in place because of timing. It’s less than 1% IMHO because Idalia isn’t close enough to the coast to get drawn in. That doesn’t mean the entire peninsula doesn’t need to be on alert though. Idalia when she was developing has had a history of a big eastern lobe. Expect feeder bands and outflow bands are going to cause some havoc. If I was south of Cedar Key and Perry, I’d be all over the hi-res, hurricane and meso models to see what they are showing locally and watching satellite to see which ones are getting it best. We are inside 40 hours so the globals don’t so much matter anymore. The clues are elsewhere.

[ElectricStorm]

0z hurricane models:
HAFS-A with a 130kt Cat 4 at landfall (I think this is a bit too strong)
HAFS-B with a 110-115kt Cat 3/4
HMON with around a 115kt Cat 4
HWRF the weakest with a strong Cat 2 just before landfall. 943mb at landfall which would be very low for a Cat 2

[chaser1]

The 0z cycle looks to be faster and farther west thus far…NHC did mention that Idalia had slowed somewhat this evening…so not really sure what to make of it.

May of simply been a blip that in the grand scheme of things, meant very little. I say that because the storm now seems to clearly be on the move to the north.

Of course I know this 90 percent wouldn't happen but if she started to scoot along and went more northeast and headed right for the Bradenton area, what the heck would they do with hours notice? Just tell everyone drive north away from the core?

Basically, yeah. Think about it though. What is the primary difference between the present risk, and a scenerio where the fine people of Bradenton actually believed that THEY were sitting at "ground zero"?? The only real difference is the level of preparedness that people WILL undertake when they feel a threat is real. The problem isn't insufficiant Watches and Warnings by NHC. The problem is human nature. No one wants to put up hurricane shutters for no reason. That or hunt for water, canned goods, gas up the car, and on and on. In the old days, people took action or responded to a threat based on rudementary analysis of the sky, animal behavior, or because some tribal elder told them too. Today, we have science and pretty reliable tools like satellite, forcast models, and communication. We dont have time to waste, we demand certainty, and frankly can't be bothered. We expect instant gratification, accuracy and perfection of others and admittedly relinquish responsibility for our own actions (or lack thereof). I suppose the short answer to your question should be.... EVERYBODY is responsible for taking "measured" actions or precaution when called to do so. For those in a flood zone, get out when told there's a serious risk. That or choose to not be inconvenienced because you just know that 3 million people will happily get out of your way as the 10' wall of water rushes toward you.

People can NOT expect NHC to always make perfect forecasts. People CAN choose to always make the best decisions for their own personal safety.

[FLLurker32]

0z hurricane models:
HAFS-A with a 130kt Cat 4 at landfall (I think this is a bit too strong)
HAFS-B with a 110-115kt Cat 3/4
HMON with around a 115kt Cat 4
HWRF the weakest with a strong Cat 2 just before landfall. 943mb at landfall which would be very low for a Cat 2

Notably all keep it right on or West of 85W until somewhere near or past 27N. Going to have to watch how it steers during RI.