ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ianswfl]

AL, 10, 2023082800, , BEST, 0, 198N, 854W, 40, 995, TS,

NHC has the 00Z position at the center of that huge tower

Dang lost .3 degrees S again. Crazy storm, certain it was moving NE.

That also could mean a further south FL landfall down the line and sooner. I was saying sooner landfall and further south would be better to get it onshore before it blows up, However that might not matter much now. This could be a worse case for Tampa though. Storm hits late Tue. Tue morning we think it's going to hit somwhere like Citrus County or Cedar Key and it ends up coming in at a bit of a sharper angle like Charley did and no time to evacuate and Tampa Bay gets landfall instead. Many of those buildings are pre hurricane Andrew too so a cat4 will cause all kinds of problems.

[Jr0d]

No model shows it being near eastern Cuba.

Fixed my original post. The mountains of western Cuba could disrupt Idalia, especially if she moves slowly.

Currently the models show Idalia moving over the western tip of Cuba which is fairly flat, the mountain range is further east and east of model guidance, but NOT very far so it is possible they could temporarily disrupt Idalia if she is east of model guidance.

[aspen]

I’m very interested to see what recon finds under the hood. This might be a mid-grade TS now. I’m doubtful it’ll undergo RI until late tomorrow at the earliest due to shear.

[Keldeo1997]

47kt gust

[ScottNAtlanta]

Isn't it supposed to be a full moon in the next couple of days? I don't know how much tides play on the west coast of FL

[Zonacane]

Based on shear analysis, Idalia and the ULAC are stacked right on top of each other again. The shear is gone

[GCANE]

Hot tower is rapidly building CDO

what does the CAPE look like?

Its firing from a sharp gradient meaning very unstable air is rapidly flowing into it.

In the GOM, CAPE is at insane levels.

[zzzh]

Buoy pressure down to 997.0mb

[Ianswfl]

Hot tower is rapidly building CDO

what does the CAPE look like?

Its firing from a sharp gradient meaning very unstable air is rapidly flowing into it.

In the GOM, CAPE is at insane levels.

If this has a tight, compact core like a Charley I could see a cat5 out of it in the Gulf.

I doubt there would be time for a EWRC.

[jdjaguar]

Hot tower is rapidly building CDO

what does the CAPE look like?

Its firing from a sharp gradient meaning very unstable air is rapidly flowing into it.

In the GOM, CAPE is at insane levels.

not good. I'll alert my son who lives in Indian Shores. Thanks GCANE

[GCANE]

Looks like it sucked out about all the juice from the Yucatan.
Needs to start sucking juice out of the water.
Judging from the wind speed recorded at the buoy, it just may be able to do that.
The longer it sits here the more juice it gets.
Remember this is not a stagnant body of hot water.
There is a strong current and a nearly limitless supply of energy.
Wilma RI'd and went to Cat 5 here.

[Hurrilurker]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1145526292473716927/plot_met.png

47kt gust

Even more concerning than the gust is it's recording sustained wind speeds of 39 kts, which is 45 mph. That's only 5 mph short of where the NHC expects it to be about 5 hours from now, and chances are that buoy isn't getting the highest winds.

[zzzh]

Note that the Buoy recorded 1-min sustained wind of 42kt. 40kt estimate from NHC seems conservative.

[jdjaguar]

Looks like it sucked out about all the juice from the Yucatan.
Needs to start sucking juice out of the water.
Judging from the wind speed recorded at the buoy, it just may be able to do that.
The longer it sits here the more juice it gets.
Remember this is not a stagnant body of hot water.
There is a strong current and a nearly limitless supply of energy.
Wilma RI'd and went to Cat 5 here.

I remember

[cheezyWXguy]

AL, 10, 2023082800, , BEST, 0, 198N, 854W, 40, 995, TS,

NHC has the 00Z position at the center of that huge tower

Dang lost .3 degrees S again. Crazy storm, certain it was moving NE.

That also could mean a further south FL landfall down the line and sooner. I was saying sooner landfall and further south would be better to get it onshore before it blows up, However that might not matter much now. This could be a worse case for Tampa though. Storm hits late Tue. Tue morning we think it's going to hit somwhere like Citrus County or Cedar Key and it ends up coming in at a bit of a sharper angle like Charley did and no time to evacuate and Tampa Bay gets landfall instead. Many of those buildings are pre hurricane Andrew too so a cat4 will cause all kinds of problems.

Additional south movement may actually have some potential to make things worse rather than better. One of the limiters on Idalia’s intensity potential as it moves up the gulf is the upper low to its north, which is imparting some shear. This is forecast to lift out on Tuesday, allowing idalia the opportunity to strengthen more quickly into landfall. However, if Idalia stays put for longer while the low lifts out, this may allow for a longer window for Idalia to strengthen. It’s also not clear whether this would cause idalias projected track to shift west, east, or at all. The upper low lifting out might allow higher pressure to start building in and push Idalia west, but strong and strengthening hurricanes that parallel the FL west coast have had a tendency to turn east into the coast earlier than forecast. Reed Timmer actually put out a video on this earlier today, and he explains it better than I ever could. Point being, this setup is complex and uncertain.

[GCANE]

what does the CAPE look like?

Its firing from a sharp gradient meaning very unstable air is rapidly flowing into it.

In the GOM, CAPE is at insane levels.

not good. I'll alert my son who lives in Indian Shores. Thanks GCANE

My pleasure.
Best wishes for your son.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I just noticed, if this RIs to major, it would mark a three year streak of major hurricanes with the letter I making a conus landfall. I am a believer in the I curse.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1695963150632558778

[Keldeo1997]

10L IDALIA 230828 0000 19.8N 85.4W ATL 45 992

Now 45kts/992MB

[Landy]

00z entry revised to 45kt/992mb likely due to the impressive buoy obs. Could be stronger since latest obs are at 45kt sustained.

10L IDALIA 230828 0000 19.8N 85.4W ATL 45 992