ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

It will cut across Cuba if the SE movement continues.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

Andrew did it more than any storm I have witnessed here since 1991. Only the dug out channels had any water in them at all. It was an amazing sight t behold!

[chaser1]

When is recon scheduled on site?

Look at the banner at recon thread. Arrives around midnight.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9#p3037879

Thanks for the link Luis; Assuming your question was not rhetorical, ... "no, I did not".

[ConvergenceZone]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1695963150632558778?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw

Regarding the tweet about Idalia continuing to go against model forecasts and move south/east. Is there any possible chance of it continuing to move east and be influenced by Franklin's steering currents and swept northeast out to sea or maybe across Western Cuba and Eastern Florida? Just wondering if that's a possibility if this current movement continues? or if that's not even a remote possibility?

[typhoonty]

The buoy that Idalia crossed over is only at 3m height. And saw winds sustained above 40 kts. May not have to wait for recon for a 50 kt initial intensity here

[caneman]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

That was Irma

Irma ripped the bark off trees here in land o lakes, we are not all that far from I75 either, so we aren't exactly coastal .

I'm well aware. I'm near Indian Rocks Beach. We had fences and trees down everywhere. The Tampa Bay area got up to 90 mph wind gusts. We are one of the areas that gets hit and skirted most frequently by storms. Just been lucky it hasn't been a major.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1695963150632558778?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw

Regarding the tweet about Idalia continuing to go against model forecasts and move south/east. Is there any possible chance of it continuing to move east and be influenced by Franklin's steering currents and swept northeast out to sea or maybe across Western Cuba and Eastern Florida? Just wondering if that's a possibility if this current movement continues? or if that's not even a remote possibility?

I wouldn’t count on it. Steering pattern will be north once it kicks in. Nothing is gonna be pulling the system East until it gets up a good bit.

[chaser1]

When is recon scheduled on site?

About 1:30am central time. Hope they get off the ground this time.

Thanks 1:30am, ugh. Thats okay, who needs sleep anyway?

[LandoWill]

This area here where the arrow is, is the area that if you are in tampa, you don't want it shifted to, this area south to *tampa of course"



The smaller bend

[Clearcloudz]

1921 Tampa Hurricane track with surge values. I think in this case the angle of approach lead to extreme surge values.

https://i.imgur.com/8h7MwE4.png

https://i.imgur.com/7rlYm5J.jpg

I agree. I was thinking a few minutes ago about an intensifying landfalling Cat 4 into Pinellas County and moving northeast directly down Interstate 4 to Daytona would be a worst-case scenario.

Not much history to go off of for Tampa Bay. Crazy thing is Tampa is tucked into a area of the Florida coast where its rare for a hurricane to make a direct hit.

[InfernoFlameCat]

When is recon scheduled on site?

About 1:30am central time. Hope they get off the ground this time.

Thanks 1:30am, ugh. Thats okay, who needs sleep anyway?

I gotta hit the gym at 5 am. I can’t be stayin up that late. I’ll find out in the morning at 5 am

[FLLurker32]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1695981431372333328

[caneman]

1921 Tampa Hurricane track with surge values. I think in this case the angle of approach lead to extreme surge values.

https://i.imgur.com/8h7MwE4.png

https://i.imgur.com/7rlYm5J.jpg

I agree. I was thinking a few minutes ago about an intensifying landfalling Cat 4 into Pinellas County and moving northeast directly down Interstate 4 to Daytona would be a worst-case scenario.

Not much history to go off of for Tampa Bay. Crazy thing is Tampa is tucked into a area of the Florida coast where its rare for a hurricane to make a direct hit.
https://i.imgur.com/1AuLuMg.jpg

Not direct but we've dealt with many producing Cat. 1 like winds Elena, Frances, Jeanne, Irma. It's just a matter of time. Just a 30 or so mile shift spared us from Charley, Irma and Ian. Although we got hit hard by Irma. It been luck and nothing more. We've also seen many many high end tropical storms. One of the most frequently hit or skirted areas just not by majors in awhile

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that Wxman was calling for a sheared tropical storm at landfall. Do you know if he's still sticking with this prediction? I know that sometimes he disagrees with the NHC, so just wondering if he's still sticking with his prediction? ..... I haven't seen him posting yet today and usually I do, which is why I'm asking.... Would love to get his input....

[Poonwalker]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

Irma

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1695984986032071055

[tropicwatch]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

Charley because the winds were out of the northeast and east.

[Clearcloudz]

I agree. I was thinking a few minutes ago about an intensifying landfalling Cat 4 into Pinellas County and moving northeast directly down Interstate 4 to Daytona would be a worst-case scenario.

Not much history to go off of for Tampa Bay. Crazy thing is Tampa is tucked into a area of the Florida coast where its rare for a hurricane to make a direct hit.
https://i.imgur.com/1AuLuMg.jpg

Not direct but we've dealt with many producing Cat. 1 like winds Frances, Jeanne, Irma. It's just a matter of time. Just a 30 or so mile shift spared us from Charley, Irma and Ian. Although we got hit hard by Irma. It been luck and nothing more. We've also seen many many high end tropical storms. One of the most frequently hit or skirted areas just not by majors in awhile

Let's see what happens but more shifts east will cause major evacuations of Tampa and surrounding areas due to so little time and scary thing would be no evacuations and tons of people trapped.

[Blown Away]

N shear or is Idalia moving SE again??

[cycloneye]

Oh my. When recon arrives, what kind of storm will they find? Yikes. Yes, possible inner core forming.



https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3