ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LandoWill]

Not much history to go off of for Tampa Bay. Crazy thing is Tampa is tucked into a area of the Florida coast where its rare for a hurricane to make a direct hit.
https://i.imgur.com/1AuLuMg.jpg

Not direct but we've dealt with many producing Cat. 1 like winds Frances, Jeanne, Irma. It's just a matter of time. Just a 30 or so mile shift spared us from Charley, Irma and Ian. Although we got hit hard by Irma. It been luck and nothing more. We've also seen many many high end tropical storms. One of the most frequently hit or skirted areas just not by majors in awhile

Let's see what happens but more shifts east will cause major evacuations of Tampa and surrounding areas due to so little time and scary thing would be no evacuations and tons of people trapped.

they will make orders by noon tomorrow, either way to be safe

[Blown Away]

Oh my. When recon arrives, what kind of storm will they find? Yikes. Yes, possible inner core forming.

https://i.imgur.com/ylsfZqk.jpg

What is the long/lat of that core? Can you share the radar link?

[NDG]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

Charley because the winds were out of the northeast and east.

It happened with Irma and Ian as well.

[zzzh]

AF304 Mission #3 into IDALIA

Recon taking off.

[cycloneye]

Oh my. When recon arrives, what kind of storm will they find? Yikes. Yes, possible inner core forming.

https://i.imgur.com/ylsfZqk.jpg

What is the long/lat of that core? Can you share the radar link?

Cancun radar. https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3

[FLLurker32]

Not direct but we've dealt with many producing Cat. 1 like winds Frances, Jeanne, Irma. It's just a matter of time. Just a 30 or so mile shift spared us from Charley, Irma and Ian. Although we got hit hard by Irma. It been luck and nothing more. We've also seen many many high end tropical storms. One of the most frequently hit or skirted areas just not by majors in awhile

Let's see what happens but more shifts east will cause major evacuations of Tampa and surrounding areas due to so little time and scary thing would be no evacuations and tons of people trapped.

they will make orders by noon tomorrow, either way to be safe

Unfortunately, I personally know of many who won’t evacuate if asked to. They’ve had so many close calls that many simply don’t believe it anymore. Let’s just hope it stays north of there because if it made that type of shift we’d honestly see catastrophic loss of life. I don’t even want to think about it.

[NDG]

Oh my. When recon arrives, what kind of storm will they find? Yikes. Yes, possible inner core forming.

https://i.imgur.com/ylsfZqk.jpg

What is the long/lat of that core? Can you share the radar link?

From the radar view that far out it appears near 19.5N & 85.3W but because the circulation is most likely tilted because of northerly shear the LLC is probably closer to 19.7N

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropic ... recent.gif

[Poonwalker]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Xq6PxwBn/goes16-vis-swir-10-L-202308280102.gif [/url]

N shear or is Idalia moving SE again??

Iam not seeing any shear. This thing is blowing up and not moving right now other than a slight wobble south maybe. Very impressive over the last few hours.

[Hurrilurker]

Was it Michael that sucked all the water out of the Bay?

Charley because the winds were out of the northeast and east.

Right, now imagine if Charley (or this storm) were the same distance north of Tampa. The effects would be essentially reversed, since you'd have winds coming from the SW(ish), pushing all that water in instead of sucking it out. No bueno.

[HurricaneBelle]

I would be getting out of Dodge if lived along the coast or in a surge-prone area, just based on the NHC track alone let alone any eastern-leaning models. Unless it somehow pulls a Charley or Ian and unexpectedly goes in south of Tampa Bay it's going to be a nightmare there regardless unless it goes say west of Apalachicola.

I'm in a non-evacuation zone and for now I'm going to ride it out in Safety Harbor/Clearwater. Ahead of Ian I went to my son's in Tallahassee which turned out to be a great move as we still ended up losing power for 48 hours while I was gone. Considering it this time as well but right now Tallahassee looks as likely to suffer power outages, etc.

[eastcoastFL]

She’s definitely putting things together

[tropicwatch]

AF304 Mission #3 into IDALIA

Recon taking off.

At least its on the tarmac. Think they made the decision to go early because Idalia looks to be a bad girl:)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Not much history to go off of for Tampa Bay. Crazy thing is Tampa is tucked into a area of the Florida coast where its rare for a hurricane to make a direct hit.
https://i.imgur.com/1AuLuMg.jpg

Not direct but we've dealt with many producing Cat. 1 like winds Frances, Jeanne, Irma. It's just a matter of time. Just a 30 or so mile shift spared us from Charley, Irma and Ian. Although we got hit hard by Irma. It been luck and nothing more. We've also seen many many high end tropical storms. One of the most frequently hit or skirted areas just not by majors in awhile

Let's see what happens but more shifts east will cause major evacuations of Tampa and surrounding areas due to so little time and scary thing would be no evacuations and tons of people trapped.

The additional nightmare with that scenario is that there is apparently an issue that they have just discovered/announced this afternoon that there was a big issue with the Saturday deliveries of gas coming out of the port of Tampa. Diesel was switched out by accident in tankers supposed to be delivering regular gas to 7-Eleven's , BJ's and some other places. They warned people that bought gas at a bunch of places within Tampa Bay since Saturday to check it/beware/take action.

That said, they know many tanks at stations are currently out there with bad fuel. Unlikely that could be resolved before folks start topping things off when they wake up tomorrow and see things quickly escalated.

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kt and pressure down to 992 mbs at updated BT:

AL, 10, 2023082800, , BEST, 0, 198N, 854W, 45, 992, TS

[jfk08c]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2023_10L/web/last24hrs.gif

She’s definitely putting things together

Mind posting a link to where you find these products? Always have a hard time remembering

[eastcoastFL]

AF304 Mission #3 into IDALIA

Recon taking off.

At least its on the tarmac. Think they made the decision to go early because Idalia looks to be a bad girl:)

Sounds like a smart move. They’re going to need all the info they can get to get the best forecast out in the morning.

[eastcoastFL]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2023_10L/web/last24hrs.gif

She’s definitely putting things together

Mind posting a link to where you find these products? Always have a hard time remembering

Sure no problem. I have the same issue so I just had it bookmarked from last year.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... splay.html

[dukeblue219]

AF304 Mission #3 into IDALIA

Recon taking off.

At least its on the tarmac. Think they made the decision to go early because Idalia looks to be a bad girl:)

Sounds like a smart move. They’re going to need all the info they can get to get the best forecast out in the morning.

Eh, it's not especially early. Scheduled takeoff was always 0300Z (11pm EDT).

[jfk08c]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2023_10L/web/last24hrs.gif

She’s definitely putting things together

Mind posting a link to where you find these products? Always have a hard time remembering

Sure no problem. I have the same issue so I just had it bookmarked from last year.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... splay.html

Much appreciated. I've got pretty much every other link saved but I always forget this one

[FLLurker32]

AF304 Mission #3 into IDALIA

Recon taking off.

At least its on the tarmac. Think they made the decision to go early because Idalia looks to be a bad girl:)

Sounds like a smart move. They’re going to need all the info they can get to get the best forecast out in the morning.

Agreed. There isn’t much time to do coastal evacuations. They’ll need to start ordering them tomorrow.