Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

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JetFuel_SE
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Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

#1 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:57 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:https://imageshack.com/i/pmLPgIqcp
https://imageshack.com/i/poGxFs18p
https://imageshack.com/i/pn4H0ZvJp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmHXh4Hzp
Looks like that the models are in agreement that a low pressure system could evolve into a subtropical system and maybe even get an brief eye-like-feature very soon, in less than 48H.

https://imageshack.com/i/pozh0O2cj
If the NHC insists on not demarcating this as an area of ​​interest (AOI) or Invest 90L, we may experience delays in monitoring this system if this becomes a subtropical storm.

'She' just has to detach from the front, and it's go-time.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#2 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:20 am

3hr loop of the Meso 1 Sector.

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#3 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:20 am

Image
Still nothing here on NHC's website.
They have very little time to act. If the LPA does manage to evolve into a Subtropical Storm, it will likely only be recognized as one in Post-season analysis.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:29 am

Made a thread for this low and moved the last three posts that were at the models thread.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:40 am

 https://twitter.com/AlexCorderoWX/status/1614602988944752643


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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#6 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:48 am

Image
Image
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#7 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:16 am

As dawn rises the storm is revealed.

GOES-16 Red Band 1 hour loop. - https://col.st/Wg2QC

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:16 am

 https://twitter.com/TorenWX/status/1614611964071739394


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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#9 Postby Dean_175 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 9:55 am

Yes, warm seclusion. Nothing more. Beautiful to look at though. I doubt this gets named. Its hardly tropical or even subtropical. Temperatures are in the low 60s F in its center and its going to start moving northward in 24 hours due to upper level forcing. The associated front has brought a chill of 40 F degrees to south Florida. Can't really be said to have formed within a tropical airmass.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:14 pm

Image
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#11 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sun Jan 15, 2023 1:30 pm


Don't know how attached it is to the broader frontal system, but they should at least mention it.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#12 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:08 pm

I think the NHC is doing like last year when it refused to upgrade several systems to TD or TS status that would be short-lived storms.
And of course, between December and May, they rarely mark something as AOI, even if it has at least good support from the models, like now.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#13 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:41 pm

There's a ASCAT pass on the cyclone

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#14 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:52 pm

GOES-16 Meso Sector Red Band + Clean IR - https://col.st/VgLfz

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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#15 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:53 pm

ChrisH-UK wrote:There's a ASCAT pass on the cyclone

https://i.imgur.com/319OEp5.png


2023 already has a potential Atlantic cyclone?

Ha, take that 2013 and 2022 :lol: :lol:
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#16 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sun Jan 15, 2023 3:22 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
ChrisH-UK wrote:There's a ASCAT pass on the cyclone

https://i.imgur.com/319OEp5.png


2023 already has a potential Atlantic cyclone?

Ha, take that 2013 and 2022 :lol: :lol:

Looks like it's still holding on to that front in that pass.
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#17 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:08 pm

Still nothing from the NHC, can someone contact them and show proof that this could develop?
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#18 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:17 pm

I am sure they are aware of this. Remember, they are the biggest weather nerds of all!
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#19 Postby Landy » Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:41 pm

Has a better shot than 99L last month if it can keep itself together tonight IMO... Looks pretty close already!
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Re: Low Pressure Off the Mid Atlantic Coast

#20 Postby Landy » Sun Jan 15, 2023 9:14 pm

:D
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