SPAC: TEN - Post-Tropical

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SH, 92, 2023011712, , BEST, 0, 184S, 1484E, 15, 1010, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 922023.dat

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.6S 148.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 148.4E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND
AN 180328Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS
SPREAD OUT IN PATCHES REVEALING A FULLY EXPOSED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 172340Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A WEAKLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH A 25-30KT WIND FIELD WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF HAVE BEEN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INDICATING THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE STATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS INDICATED BY WEAK (10-15KT) VWS,
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 92P WILL BRIEFLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.6S 150.7E TO 18.1S 156.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6S 150.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 148.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 150.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED AND DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER JUST EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM WILLIS ISLAND REPORT WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS AND PRESSURE AS
LOW AS 996MB WITH 999MB BEING THE AVERAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-
15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 92P WILL DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 150.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE EAST. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER JUST EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND REPORT WINDS AT 25-30 KNOTS AND
PRESSURE AS LOW AS 996MB WITH 999MB BEING THE AVERAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT)
VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P
WILL DEVELOP GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS IT TRACKS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.7S 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
EAST OF LIHOU REEF. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 191102Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE
IMAGE INDICATES A TROUGH-LIKE WIND FIELD WITH EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25-
30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND PATCHY AREAS OF 25
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS REVEALED IN A 191504Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE TROUGH BUT LITTLE EVIDENCE
OF A DISCRETE LLC. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL WIND FIELD HAS STRENGTHENED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINAL WITH DIFFLUENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM,
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (28-29C). DESPITE
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE
WINDS TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

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WTPS21 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) REISSUED//
REF/A/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190152ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.7S 157.7E TO 21.7S 163.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7S 157.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.7S 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 534 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH WEAK LINEAR BANDING. A 192259Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS
WEAK LINEAR BANDING WITH BROAD CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH DIFFLUENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
SST (28-29C). DESPITE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE WINDS TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

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Final warning.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.1S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 162.8E.
21JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST. A
202238Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATES THAT 30-35 KT WINDS
PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AS EVIDENCED BY THE FULLY
EXPOSED APPEARANCE IN MSI IMAGERY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR HAS
INFILTRATED THE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THESE FACTORS ARE QUICKLY DOMINATING THE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 12, 10P WILL BE PREPARING FOR A
SHARP POLEWARD SHIFT, AS A RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN. THE SYSTEM
WILL DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 12 AND BEGIN A POLEWARD TRACK, CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN BY TAU 24 AND BEYOND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 10P WILL MAINTAIN COURSE THROUGH TAU 12 AFTER WHICH
THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 16 FEET.
//