ATL: CINDY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 41.1W
ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds
indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring
in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and
sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a
tropical depression. The depression has a partially exposed
low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west.
The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of
subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt. The
cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on
the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days. After
that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards
a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands. The model
guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast
lies near the model consensus aids.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening
over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm in the next day or so. Beyond 72 h, global models
agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and
weaken the cyclone. The NHC intensity prediction starts out
conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most
similar to the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 10.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.6N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 20.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 23.3N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 42.9W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a sheared cloud
pattern with the center of an elongated surface circulation located
near the northeastern edge of the deep convective mass. Multiple
low cloud swirls have emerged from the convection about 50 nm
east-southeast of the previously noted primary surface center. A
recent METOP-A/B scatterometer pass showed the strongest winds
(30-32 kt) situated over the northeast quadrant. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is expected to remain in marginally favorable
atmospheric conditions and over warmer-than-normal oceanic
temperatures during the next 3 days. Through the remainder
of the forecast, vertical shear is forecast to increase
significantly as the depression approaches a deep-layer
mid-Atlantic trough extending from the central Atlantic to the
Greater Antilles. Accordingly, a weakening trend should be
underway by 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is an update
of the first advisory and consists of a blend of the consensus and
deterministic models beyond day 3.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/13 kt and a
west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed
is forecast during the next 4 days. Near the end of the period, a
northwestward motion is expected as the depression rounds the
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and enters
a growing weakness over the western Atlantic. The NHC forecast
reflects no significant change from the previous one and is based
on the tightly clustered, highly reliable multi-model consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 11.3N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 11.8N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 12.8N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.0N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.5N 52.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 17.1N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.6N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 21.7N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 24.0N 65.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 44.0W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

The tropical cyclone continues to exhibit a shear pattern on
satellite imagery with the center located to the east of the main
area of deep convection. Banding features are not very well
defined at this time. Although the low-level center is perhaps a
little better defined than it was earlier today, there has been
little change to the overall convective organization. The current
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is the average
of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone will remain over warm waters and within a marginally
moist atmosphere for the next several days. This should allow at
least gradual strengthening during the next couple of days. The
main factor for the longer-term future intensity of the system is
likely to be a large upper-level trough that extends from the
northeastern Caribbean Sea northeastward into the Atlantic for
several hundred miles. This feature is predicted by the global
models to persist through the 72 hour time frame. Since the
tropical cyclone is expected to interact with this trough in 2-3
days, the associated increase in vertical shear will likely cause
some weakening. By the end of the forecast period, when the system
nears subtropical latitudes, the shear may decrease. However, it is
not yet clear that the cyclone will be able to make a comeback by
that time.

The depression continues on a west-northwesterly track with an
estimated motion of 285/12 kt. There is not much change to the
track forecast reasoning. For the next several days, the system
should continue on a generally west-northwestward, to nearly
northwestward, path along the periphery of a subtropical high
pressure area. The official track forecast is very close to the
dynamical model consensus and is slightly to the west of the
previous NHC track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 11.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.2N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.4N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.0N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 19.1N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 21.6N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 45.2W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved this
evening. Deep convection has become more persistent during the past
several hours over the western portion of the circulation. GOES
proxy-visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data
indicate the center has moved farther underneath the expanding cold
dense overcast tonight. An ASCAT-B pass at 00 UTC showed an area of
30 to 35-kt winds in the northern semicircle of the cyclone, which
supports upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Cindy with this
advisory.

Despite some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment,
modest strengthening is forecast in the near term as the cyclone
moves over 27-28C waters with generally weak vertical wind shear
during the next couple of days. By Sunday, Cindy is forecast to move
under the influence of an upper-level trough extending from the
central Atlantic to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The increasing
deep-layer shear associated with this feature is likely to cause the
small cyclone to weaken early next week, and the official NHC
forecast shows Cindy degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by day 5.

Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 285/12 kt. The cyclone is
expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next
several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its
northeast. This track keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. The guidance is in fairly good agreement,
and the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model
consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 11.7N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 12.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 13.6N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.7N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 18.3N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 22.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 24.6N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 46.9W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Cindy is continuing to show signs of improvement based on satellite
imagery. Deep convection with cold cloud tops of less than -80
degrees C are near the estimated low-level center, an indication the
vertical wind shear is likely weakening. The initial intensity has
been increased to 40 kt based on a blend of the 3.0 and 2.5
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB,
respectively.

The reasoning behind the intensity forecast is unchanged. SHIPS
model guidance indicates that Cindy will remain embedded within an
area of weak vertical wind shear for the next day or so, shielding
it from the surrounding drier mid-level airmass. Given the
relatively conducive environmental and oceanic conditions, gradual
strengthening is expected. Beyond 48 h, the deep-layer shear is
forecast to increased which, in combination with the dry air, will
likely weaken Cindy early next week. The official intensity
forecast is very similar to the previous prediction.

Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. This motion is
expected to continue during the next several days as Cindy moves
around the southwest periphery of a subtropical ridge. The track
guidance for the cyclone has shifted northward in the 3-5 day range,
and the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward as a result.
This track still keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 12.1N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 12.9N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.0N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.7N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 19.4N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 20.9N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 23.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 25.7N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 48.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Cindy appears to be gradually strengthening this morning. A curved
band formed overnight to the west of the center and has wrapped
around on its southern semicircle. A SSMIS microwave pass at 1003
UTC also showed this band with the center becoming more embedded
within the larger cirrus canopy. Subjective Dvorak estimates were
T3.0/45-kt from SAB and T3.5/55-kt from TAFB. The latest objective
intensity estimates were a little on the lower side with 41 kt from
ADT and 39 kt from SATCON. We also recently received a partial
ASCAT-B pass at 1233 UTC, but it likely did not capture the highest
winds on the northeast side of Cindy's circulation. A blend of the
subjective and objective intensity guidance supports a current
intensity of 45-kt for this advisory.

It seems that Cindy has a 24-h window to intensify further, while
vertical wind shear (both deep-layer and mid-level) remains under
15 kt as the storm traverses 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures in a
marginally moist mid-level air environment. However, beyond that
period, shear out of the northwest increases markedly as the system
approaches the same upper-level trough shearing Bret, and this
increase in shear is likely to import drier mid-level air from that
direction. The intensity guidance is largely in agreement that Cindy
will intensify for the next day or so, but are in less agreement of
how quickly the storm will weaken after the shear increases. Given
the small size of Cindy, it seems more likely to be adversely
affected by the expected negative environmental conditions and
steady weakening is forecast beyond that time, with the system
likely becoming a remnant low sometime in the 4-5 day time frame.
This intensity forecast is a little bit under the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids after 24 h.

Cindy continues to move to the west-northwest at around 290/14 kt.
This general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days as
Cindy moves around a mid-level ridge centered to its east-northeast.
Even though a weakness in the ridge is forecast to become more
pronounced north of Cindy in the 3-5 day time period, the system is
also forecast to become more vertically shallow, and be more steered
by low-level ridging which will remain in place. The latest track
aid guidance shifted ever so slightly northward compared to the
previous cycle, and the new track forecast was shifted a little
in that direction. This track forecast is a bit south of the
consensus aids, but assumes Cindy will likely be a more shallow
system by the end of the period. Cindy's track forecast remains
well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 12.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 13.6N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.2N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.9N 55.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.7N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 20.2N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 21.8N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 24.0N 64.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 26.7N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...CINDY PAUSES ITS INTENSIFICATION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 49.3W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Since the previous advisory, the convective structure of Cindy has
become more anemic, with the earlier banding structure degrading
into more scattered convection distributed around the low-level
circulation. It is possible some nearby dry air has been entrained
into the circulation, limiting more organized convection this
afternoon. The lackluster convective structure was also observed on
a recent 1852 UTC SSMIS pass. Dvorak T-numbers have either held
steady or decreased slightly, and the initial intensity will remain
45 kt for this advisory.

While the shear has not yet increased over Cindy and sea surface
temperatures underneath remain sufficently warm, the apparent
dry-air entrainment might be a limiting factor on more robust
intensification in the short term. After 24 h, Cindy is forecast to
encounter higher shear from the northwest which should induce a
weakening trend. The intensity guidance is a bit lower than the
previous cycle, and the NHC forecast also shows a slightly lower
peak intensity than earlier. Under continued shear from an
upper-level trough, Cindy is still forecast to become a remnant low
and dissipate by the end of the forecast period. However, one thing
worth mentioning beyond the forecast period is that some of the
guidance (most notably the GFS) shows the possibility of Cindy
regenerating near Bermuda, though that is beyond the scope of the
current forecast.

Cindy continues to move to the west-northwest, perhaps a bit more
poleward than before at 295/14 kt. Not much has changed with the
forecast track philosophy with a similar west-northwestward motion
expected to continue as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to its east-northeast. As the system weakens, it is more
likely to be steered by the low-level ridging which should maintain
this motion through the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance made another small shift to the northeast, and the latest
NHC track forecast was similarly adjusted a bit in that direction,
but remains notably on the south side of the guidance envelope,
fairly close to the latest ECMWF forecast. This track forecast
remains well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 13.3N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.5N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.3N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 18.1N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 19.9N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 21.6N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 23.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 24.8N 65.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...CINDY CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 50.4W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

After a lull in convective activity earlier today, deep convection
associated with Cindy has increased tonight. A cold dense overcast
with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has expanded over the
center of the cyclone, and a curved band of convection has developed
over the northern portion of the circulation. Unfortunately, no
recent microwave or scatterometer data are available to assess the
structure and intensity of Cindy. The initial intensity of 45 kt is
supported by objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates, and a T3.0
subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

Cindy has a brief window to strengthen during the next 12 h or so.
Then, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over the storm by
Sunday in association with an upper-level trough over the central
Atlantic. This, along with potential bouts of dry air entrainment,
should cause Cindy to weaken through early next week despite warm
SSTs along its track. The latest NHC forecast shows Cindy reaching
its peak intensity in 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter. While most the global models agree that Cindy will open
into a trough by the middle of next week, the 18 UTC GFS and HAFS
runs show the cyclone remaining intact and deepening near and beyond
the end of the forecast period. While this does not seem like the
most likely outcome, it cannot be completely ruled out at this time.
For now, the official NHC forecast continues to follow most of the
non-GFS guidance and shows dissipation by day 5, but note that
future forecast changes may be necessary.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. A
general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over
the next few days as Cindy is steered by a subtropical ridge to its
northeast. The track model spread increases early next week, with
the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track on the
far right of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the
left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC
intensity forecast. Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 13.9N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.1N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 22.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 23.7N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 25.6N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

...CINDY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 51.2W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

Deep bursts of convection over Cindy's center, with cloud top
temperature less than -90C, have been forming since the last
advisory. A microwave pass at 0526 UTC showed a curved band
wrapping around the southern semicircle of the estimated low-level
center and a relatively aligned vortex. However, weak-to-moderate
northwesterly shear may still be affecting the storm and could
explain the most recent warming trends in the cloud top
temperatures. A blend of the subjective satellite estimates from
TAFB and SAB support a slight increase in the initial intensity to
50 kt.

The window for Cindy to strengthen further is coming to end.
Vertical wind shear is expected to increase within a day as the
storm nears an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic and
forces surrounding drier mid-level air into the circulation. These
unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to weaken the
storm after a day or so. The GFS (and the regional models dependent
on its boundary conditions) still forecasts Cindy to maintain a
coherent low-level vortex and re-strengthen beyond the forecast
period. This scenario does not seem as likely given the small size
of the cyclone, and the NHC forecast favors the weaker intensity
guidance that shows dissipation by day 5. However, changes may be
necessary to future forecasts.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. A general
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
few days as Cindy moves along the periphery of a subtropical ridge
to its northeast. The spread in track model guidance increases early
next week, with the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a
track to the right of the other models. The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the
left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC
intensity forecast. On the current forecast track, Cindy is expected
to remain well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.6N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.0N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 18.1N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 20.4N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 22.2N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 23.6N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 24.8N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 26.8N 63.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

T4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

...CINDY STILL A 60-MPH TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

After Cindy exhibited a bursting pattern with deep convection
covering the center overnight, more recently morning visible
satellite images show the low-level center accelerating and becoming
exposed on the northwest end of a small area of colder than -70C
convective cloud tops. It appears that the forecast increase in
northwesterly shear is beginning to transpire. Despite the recent
degradation in structure, a blend of both objective and subjective
intensity aids still support a current intensity of 50 kt for this
advisory, though this might be generous. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cindy later
today and should provide a better assessment of the storm's
intensity this afternoon.

Now that Cindy is beginning to feel the effects of increased
northwesterly shear, its likely the system has peaked in intensity
with weakening not far behind. Shear in the EC-SHIPS guidance is
expected to increase to 30 kt and shift southwesterly in a day or
so, and that combined with a fairly dry mid-level airmass should
contribute to continued decay over the next several days. The latest
NHC intensity forecast now shows Cindy weakening as soon as later
today. Beyond 48 h, there remains uncertainty in the guidance as to
if Cindy will dissipate. The GFS shows some sort of center
reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3 period, though
the GFS has a habit of being too aggressive with center
redevelopment under sheared convection (see what recently transpired
with Bret). In contrast, the ECMWF continues to show Cindy opening
up into a trough axis sometime in the day 3-4 period, though it
should be noted that some of the ECMWF ensemble members try to
regenerate the storm later on, though not as strong as the GFS.
Given the small size of Cindy's current circulation, it seems more
likely Cindy will succumb to the increasingly unfavorable
environmental conditions and dissipate before the end of the
forecast period, and the NHC track forecast continues to indicate
that scenario, with post-tropical status in the day 3-4 period and
dissipation thereafter. However, this forecast is of lower than
usual confidence, and its possible the storm could regenerate or
reform as suggested by the GFS and high-resolution HAFS-A/B models.

The storm has accelerated a bit to the northwest this morning, with
the estimated motion at 310/17 kt. This same general motion is
expected to continue, albeit a bit slower over the next
couple of days as the system remains steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge located to its northeast. Beyond the next 24 h, the guidance
spread increases quite a bit, again primarily due to the GFS and
some of the regional hurricane models suggesting the system
attempts reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3-4 time
frame. However, the NHC track favors more of a blend between the
latest ECMWF and TVCA consensus aids, which are further south and
west, assuming a weakening tropical cyclone that continues to follow
the low- to mid-level steering flow. On the current track, Cindy
should pass well the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.8N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 20.0N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 21.9N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 23.5N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 25.0N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 26.0N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

...AIRCRAFT FINDS CINDY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 54.7W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

The satellite presentation of Cindy this afternoon is fairly
unimpressive, with an exposed low-level swirl ejecting quickly
northwestward away from the pulsing convection present to its east.
Earlier, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission measured
Cindy's surface pressure, which was higher than estimated earlier,
at 1005 mb. However, the fast motion of the storm this afternoon has
still enabled strong winds to exist on the east side of the
circulation. The aircraft found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 59
kt, with the highest SFMR obs up to 50 kt. Thus, despite the rather
disheveled appearance , Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm for
this advisory. However, most of these winds are concentrated in the
northeast quadrant, with much lighter winds on its western side.

Aircraft fixes indicate that the tropical storm is still moving
quickly to the northwest, estimated at 310/18 kt. This quick
northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 12-18 h,
though the track model guidance suggest the system should slow down
its forward motion thereafter. There continues to be large
divergence in the track guidance after about 24 hours, with the GFS,
HWRF, and HAFS guidance on the east side of the track envelope
(related to some degree of center reformation or relocation to the
northeast), with the CMC, ECMWF, & COAMPS-TC on the west side. The
NHC track forecast ops to continue taking a blend between the ECMWF
and TVCA consensus aid. Cindy should pass well northeast of the
northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday.

Even though Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm, this is as much of
a reflection of its quick forward motion than its current
organization, which has gone downhill this afternoon, supported by
the higher central pressure measured by aircraft observations.
Vertical wind shear is forecast to quickly increase to around 30-kt
over the next day or so, and that combined with a fairly dry
mid-level environment should result in weakening over the next
several days. Given the fragile nature of Cindy's circulation
currently, it seems likely the tropical cyclone will succumb to the
unfavorable environment. In fact, the latest ECMWF forecast shows
the tropical cyclone opening up into a trough as soon as in the next
48 hours. While the latest NHC intensity forecast does not show
dissipation quite that soon, it has been moved up to 72-h in best
agreement with the latest ECMWF and CMC solutions. It should be
noted, however, that there remains a significant portion of the
guidance that, even if Cindy dissipates, could attempt to
regenerate by the end of the forecast period as the shear lowers.
However, that is not reflected in the NHC intensity forecast at this
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.8N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.7N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.8N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 23.9N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 25.5N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 27.0N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

...CINDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 55.7W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

Cindy has not changed much in organization during the last several
hours, with the low-level center located near the western or
northwestern edge of the main convective mass. While this mass has
decreased in coverage this evening, that has not yet resulted in a
significant decrease in the satellite intensity estimates. Thus,
the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 50 kt.
Satellite imagery shows strong southwesterly upper-level winds
blowing toward the cyclone, which is resulting in 20-30 kt of shear
over the system.

Cindy has slowed its forward speed a little with the initial motion
now 315/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast and east
of the cyclone should continue to steer it generally northwestward
for the next couple of days. The new track forecast is basically
an update of the previous forecast and lies just to the left
of the various consensus models. Cindy should pass well northeast
of the northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday.

The intensity forecast is a tale of two parts. The first part,
which is high confidence, is that the current strong shear will
continue for another 36-48 h, causing Cindy to weaken. This will
most likely result in the cyclone degenerating to a trough or broad
low pressure area between 48-60 h. The second part, which is lower
confidence, involves the possibility of regeneration after 72 h.
The majority of the guidance suggests the possibility that Cindy
will find an area of lighter shear and possibly undergo a favorable
interaction with an upper-level trough that would allow the system
to regenerate. The GFS is the most aggressive with this
development, but all of the models except the ECMWF show it to some
degree. A possible regeneration will not be included in the
official forecast at this time, but could be added in later
advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 18.7N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 20.3N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 22.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 24.2N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 25.7N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

...CINDY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 57.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

The low-level center of Cindy remains located on the northwestern
edge of a burst of deep convection, although night infrared
satellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation is
becoming less well defined. The latest satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are lower than the previous advisory,
and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 45 kt.

Cindy continues to move towards the northwest with an initial
motion of 320/18 kt. Cindy should move generally in that direction
with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days
into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The new track forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies near the consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is high confidence in the near term with
strong shear continuing to cause Cindy to weaken during the next
day or two. This will likely result in the cyclone degenerating
into a trough or broad low, and the current NHC prediction is for
dissipation in 48 hours, perhaps conservatively. However, there are
some global models suggesting that the remnants of Cindy could find
an area of lighter shear and interact with an upper-level trough
that would allow the system to regenerate in several days. While
this is a plausible solution, the system will likely be over cooler
SSTs at that time within only a small area of potentially conducive
upper-level wind conditions. Thus, regeneration will not be
included in the official forecast at this time, but this scenario
will be continue to be monitored.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 20.3N 57.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.9N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 23.7N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 25.2N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

...CINDY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 58.0W
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM NNE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES





Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

This morning, the low-level center of Cindy is once again separating
away from overnight deep convection. In addition, the circulation
also appears to have become more diffuse, and available cloud
motions from the GOES-16 derived motion winds suggest that the
circulation could be close to opening up on the earth-relative
frame. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
are either steady state or have decreased from the previous cycle,
and objective estimates from ADT and SATCON are also lower. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.
Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to
investigate Cindy this afternoon and will hopefully provide more
data to determine if the storm still has a closed circulation.

Cindy remains on a northwestward track this morning at 315/15 kt.
Not much has changed with the track forecast, with the system's
northwestward motion expected to gradually slow down as it moves
into a weakness in the low- to mid-level ridging. The latest NHC
track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains
close to the track consensus guidance.

The highly asymmetric structure of Cindy is currently a result of 30
kt of southwesterly vertical winds shear displacing convection away
from the low-level center. If anything, this shear is forecast to
increase further over the next 24 hours, likely leading to further
weakening. Even the GFS, which yesterday was adamant about keeping
the system stronger in the short-term, is now indicating
degeneration into a trough over the next couple of days. The latest
NHC forecast also shows the tropical cyclone opening up into a
trough in the next 36 h and this could occur sooner than indicated
here given how diffuse the circulation is currently.

After Cindy dissipates as a tropical cyclone, there remains support
from global and regional hurricane model guidance that Cindy could
regenerate farther to the north in several days when the shear
begins to abate. Enough uncertainty exists in the future
thermodynamic environment to not explicitly show regeneration in the
official forecast at this time, but this scenario will be continue
to be monitored.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 20.9N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 22.3N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 23.9N 60.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

...POORLY-DEFINED CINDY BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 59.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES




Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
500 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

This afternoon, we have had a wealth of in-situ observations, both
from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft sampling Cindy, in
addition to a NOAA buoy that very recently was in the center of the
tropical storm. The aircraft observations indicate that Cindy still
has strong winds in its northeastern quadrant, but well removed from
the center and more related to transient convection. Both the plane
and the surface buoy indicate that the minimum pressure with Cindy
continues to increase, now near 1010 mb. The wind field on the
western side of the storm is also quite diffuse and is barely closed
given the light west winds observed on the south side by the
aircraft. Satellite intensity estimates continue to drop from both
TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity will remain 40 kt for this
advisory, out of respect for the higher flight-level winds.

Cindy has continued to move northwestward this afternoon, with the
latest estimated motion at 315/14 kt. The track forecast is
essentially unchanged from earlier today, as Cindy should continue
this northwestward track until it opens up into a trough in 24 to 36
hours. The NHC track lies very close to the various consensus aids.
This track forecast does not preclude the possibility of some
possible center nudges poleward due to the enhanced convection
ongoing in the northeast quadrant of the storm.

Cindy might be having one last convective gasp this afternoon, as
continued strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level
air are likely to lead to its demise. The vast majority of the
guidance now suggests the storm will soon open up into a trough
axis. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to indicate
dissipation after 24 hours, though this could occur sooner than
indicated here. There remains a possibility of regeneration later
this week near or to the north of Bermuda, but enough uncertainty
exists to not show this scenario in the current official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 21.9N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 23.2N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 24.8N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Cindy Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

...CINDY DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN WAVE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 60.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES



Remnants Of Cindy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

Satellite imagery this evening shows that the low-cloud swirl
associated with Cindy has again become void of deep convection. In
addition, imagery animation and scatterometer data indicates that
the system no longer has a closed circulation. Thus, the cyclone
has degenerated to a tropical wave or trough and this will be the
last advisory. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the
scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and it is anticipated that the maximum winds will drop below
tropical-storm force during the next several hours.

The initial motion is 315/12. The remnants of Cindy should
continue a general northwestward motion for the next couple of
days, and then turn northward on the eastern side of a deep-layer
baroclinic trough over the eastern United States and the western
Atlantic.

In the short term, there is little chance of any regeneration due
to continued southwesterly vertical shear. However, after 48 h or
so, the shear should diminish, and there is a chance that Cindy
could regenerate after that time near or north of Bermuda.
However, the model support for this has decreased over the last 24
h, and currently there is not enough confidence in regeneration to
explicitly show it in the forecast.

This is the last advisory on Cindy by the National Hurricane
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 22.8N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven