WPAC: TALIM - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 230708 1800 10.6N 126.7E WPAC 15 1009

[Hayabusa]

00Z EPS, only becomes a TS when it's west of the Philippines (if it's still 95W) and another one forming over the Philippine sea after 5 days

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZJUL2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. THIS SYSTEM
IS CLASSIFIED AS A 600NM DIAMETER MONSOON DEPRESSION TYPE SYSTEM WITH
A VERY BROAD, WEAK CORE OF 5-10 KNOT WINDS, A SMALL PATCH OF 20 KNOT
WINDS DISPLACED 110-130NM TO THE NNE, AND PREDOMINANTLY 15 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE WEAK CORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OVER
THE LLCC. A 120433Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED,
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES
WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT
EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST ARE FAVORABLE IN THE AREA
AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW POLEWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON AND
THE LUZON STRAIT OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS WITH GRADUAL DEEPENING
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A 25-30 KNOT MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

13/12Z
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 16N 123E NNW 10 KT.

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/132200Z-140600ZJUL2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.3N 126.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTH OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION,GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE EASTERNPERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EXCEEDING 400NM IN DIAMETER WITH DISORGANIZED, BUILDING CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC. A 131950Z SSMIS 89\37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE A
BROAD, BUILDING, WRAPPING CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
DIFFLUENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY ENHANCED BY DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS LOW (5-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM 30-31C SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NOW THAT THE
MONSOON CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF LUZON,
TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE REGIONS ARE EVIDENT. ONE TO THE EAST AND THE
OTHER TO THE WEST OF LUZON. GFS, ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TOGETHER
WITH NVGM ALL INDICATE THE CIRCULATION THAT DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL EMERGE THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TD a
Issued at 2023/07/14 01:25 UTC
Analysis at 07/14 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°10′ (18.2°)
E122°20′ (122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 07/15 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E118°30′ (118.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 07/16 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30′ (19.5°)
E116°55′ (116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 07/17 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°10′ (20.2°)
E113°20′ (113.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 07/18 00 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°40′ (20.7°)
E110°25′ (110.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 07/19 00 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°50′ (21.8°)
E106°30′ (106.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

If models are right this could end up being a serious typhoon threat for SW China and Hong Kong areas. GFS peaks at 946mb, HWRF at 941mb, and HAFS-A at 967mb. Could easily see a Cat 3+ here. Hopefully everyone is prepared and ready.

Also if GFS is right the WPAC is about to light up with multiple typhoons possible over the next few weeks.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 121.2E TO 18.5N 117.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8N 120.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.0N 121.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.7E APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND COLD CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF A QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT HAS EMERGED BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCED SOUTHWESTWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN PIPING HOT (30-31C), PROVIDING
AMPLE ENERGY FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95W
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BULK OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MEANDERING TRACK AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES, FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY
SLOW TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG WITH THE
SYSTEM LIKELY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150600Z.
//
NNNN

[REDHurricane]

This one already has "the look"

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.8N 118.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 179 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WHICH IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING BUT
RETAINS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION SUCH AS A THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED OUTWARD FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
FROM 140920Z, THE BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE MAGICAL 100NM RADIUS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
TRANSITIONED FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 140720Z SHOWED 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS WELL AS TO THE NORTH,
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMUM RACING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC WHICH PRECLUDES DEFINING A DEFINITIVE
CENTER USING INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T1.5 (25 KNOTS) DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MICROSCALE POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING OVER TOP OF TD 04W, PUSHING
OUTFLOW PREDOMINANTLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. A SMALL TUTT-CELL IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST, TRAILING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH HAS JUST PASSED WEST OF TD 04W. THE PRESENCE OF THE TUTT-CELL
WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT
CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (31C) SSTS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING BURST OF
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER,
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX LYING ALONG THE
28TH LATITUDE.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: WHILE CURRENTLY STILL QUITE BROAD, THE LLC OF
TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONTRACT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK, THE STEERING LEVEL WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE 500MB LEVEL, WHERE A COL-REGION IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS RESIDES TO THE NORTH, IMPARTING A WEAK STEERING
INFLUENCE TO THE SYSTEM. THUS, TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST, WHILE IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE INTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE
OF THE ENHANCED BURST OF POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
TUTT-CELL THAT MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, BY AROUND TAU 30 THE
SYSTEM WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOME HIGHER NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WHICH WILL SLOW THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR A SHORT PERIOD. BY
TAU 24, A STRONG TUTT-CELL SOUTH OF OKINAWA AND SLIDE WESTWARD
TOWARDS TAIWAN THROUGH TAU 48, WHICH WILL SERVE TO BLOCK THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER TD 04W, AND ALLOW IT TO ESTABLISH A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW. AT THIS POINT, AROUND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF AT LEAST 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS
IT TRACKS WEST TOWARDS THE LUICHOW PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96, THEN TRACK INTO
THE GULF OF TONKIN. AFTER PEAKING AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE TERRAIN, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND INCREASED VWS.
AFTER MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL NEAR HAIPHONG, VIETNAM AFTER TAU 96,
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODEST
AGREEMENT, AT LEAST IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONFINED TO A GRADUALLY EXPANDING ENVELOPE THAT
REACHES 110NM AT TAU 72. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO APPEAR AFTER
TAU 48, WITH THE ECMWF AND ECENS IN PARTICULAR STARTING TO RACE OUT
AHEAD OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. BY TAU 120 THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 330NM BETWEEN THE ECMWF ON THE
SOUTH EDGE AND THE GFS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. OF NOTE, WHILE NOT
MEMBERS OF THE TRACK CONSENSUS, THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
HWRF, AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAVGEM VERSION OF COAMPS-TC, BREAK FROM
THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS AFTER TAU 48, AND TAKE A TRACK NORTH OF
THE CONSENSUS ENVELOPE, WITH LANDFALL NEAR WUCHUAN AND DO NOT TRACK
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. TRACK CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE MODERATELY HIGH SPREAD IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE BEING PARTICULARLY UNEXCITED ABOUT TD 04W, REACHING A PEAK
OF JUST 55 KNOTS. MEANWHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING HWRF,
COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND THE CTR1 RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID, INDICATE
STEADY, THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO A PEAK OF 90-95 KNOTS
BETWEEN TAUS 60 AND 72, WITH THE CONSENSUS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TWO EXTREMES. THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RI GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50 TO
60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RI BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE PEAK INTENSITY IN THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS MEDIUM
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Seems to be targeting the same area traversed by Rammasun way back in 2014.

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

This broad, monsoonal structure still makes me skeptical of the intense GFS and HWRF solutions (00Z GFS still bullish).

[ElectricStorm]

This broad, monsoonal structure still makes me skeptical of the intense GFS and HWRF solutions (00Z GFS still bullish).

https://i.imgur.com/VBrmYf1.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/egBHCbZ.jpg

This probably won't end up getting anywhere close to the 0z GFS solution since it initializes it as a 983mb system instead of a 35kt TS. With how broad it is, we'll see if it can even get to the currently forecasted peak of 90kts.

[Hayabusa]

First named storm after more than a month of inactivity

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎150600
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2304 ‎TALIM ‎(2304) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎150600UTC ‎18.2N ‎117.8E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎180NM
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎160600UTC ‎19.4N ‎115.6E ‎50NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎985HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
48HF ‎ ‎170600UTC ‎20.3N ‎112.4E ‎85NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎970HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT
72HF ‎ ‎180600UTC ‎21.6N ‎108.9E ‎120NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎960HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎075KT
GUST ‎ ‎105KT
96HF ‎ ‎190600UTC ‎22.5N ‎105.7E ‎200NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=

[doomhaMwx]

The ship "JDWV7LP" recently reported an MSLP of 988.1 mb in Talim's broad center, which is a tad deeper than agency estimates, and a wind speed of 41kts (but likely at high elevation).

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]