ATL: DON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2023071112, , BEST, 0, 365N, 554W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al742023 to al942023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Category5Kaiju]

Ready for 5 Atlantic storms?

[cycloneye]

[ElectricStorm]

Has some work to do but should have a decent chance to become Don in the next few days.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

No changes in the percents.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
some development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the system
moves generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn
northward bringing the system over cooler waters, likely limiting
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located more than 500 miles
east-northeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well removed to the south of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical depression
could form during the next few days while the system moves generally
eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the
system over cooler waters, potentially limiting additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 500 miles east-northeast
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well to the south of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form during the next few days while the system moves
generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward
bringing the system over cooler waters, potentially limiting
additional development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts, issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly/Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located a little more than 700 miles east of
Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the south of its center. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for this system to become a
subtropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while
it meanders over the central Atlantic. By the weekend, the low
should turn northward bringing the system over cooler waters,
potentially limiting additional development. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 700 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily to the southeast of its center. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be marginally conducive for this system to become a
subtropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while
it meanders over the central Atlantic. By the weekend, the low
should turn northward bringing the system over cooler waters,
potentially limiting additional development. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's the area at dawn 1100 UTC this morning, looks like a chaotic system with several eddies in the circulation. There looks to be one that is tucked under the clouds with convection happing.

Source - https://col.st/6a8kJ

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2023071312, , BEST, 0, 311N, 482W, 35, 1004, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

It's a mess right now, definitely a lot of work to do to become a TC. If models are correct though it should have a better chance once it turns north. Probably still a good chance this eventually becomes a TS, but it will take a bit.

If the GFS is correct, this may be around for a bit as it loops back around.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like it starting to organize. Has a subtropical look to it. Several low level spins, but the MLC is quickly improving.

[Jr0d]

Regardless if it becomes fully tropical, it the models suggest it will be spinning around for at least a week making a clockwise loop. Not likely it will strengthen significantly, but with that much time perhaps it will find a day or two of favorable conditions, surprise us and briefly become the first hurricane of the season(though unlikely)

I do expect this to become Don this weekend.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks to be developing a LLC under the convection. I'd expect don within 24 hours if trend continues.

[wxman57]

NHC may be starting advisories shortly. Convection developing over center. Could have TS or STS Don by 21Z. Let's see what their 18Z outlook says. It would stay weak and make a slow clockwise loop in the middle of nowhere over the coming week.