EPAC: FOUR-E - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

EP, 95, 2023071912, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1130W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, SPAWNINVEST, ep782023 to ep952023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep952023.dat

[Extratropical94]

1. Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next couple of
days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central portion of the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday,
the system is forecast to move over cooler waters, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Models don't do much with it but it has 24-36 hours of decent conditions.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become better defined. Additionally,
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show
increased signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or two while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of
the eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not
expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters
stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952023 07/19/23 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 35 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 35 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 9 11 18 18 18 20 20 22 25 32 41 41 42 41
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 4 2 0 4 7 4 8 10 16 17 15 10 9 1
SHEAR DIR 304 306 305 313 301 291 270 258 262 264 244 247 234 225 231 239 245
SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.0 26.6 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.8 23.2 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.8
POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 146 144 134 129 116 108 102 99 94 79 76 74 73 79
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -51.0 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 74 72 71 69 68 68 69 67 63 56 55 52 46 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 13 6 9 15 7 -2 -12 -5 3 9 -1 -25 -51 -60 -59
200 MB DIV 74 97 88 76 82 71 65 60 51 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 11 0 14
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 5 0 0 -3 -1 0 3 15 19 27 28
LAND (KM) 1286 1305 1357 1414 1478 1568 1630 1646 1650 1635 1597 1552 1544 1582 1573 1613 1701
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.3 19.8 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.9 117.2 118.4 119.7 121.7 123.4 124.4 125.2 126.0 126.7 127.5 128.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 15 12 14 13 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 22. 18. 13. 8. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. -20. -26. -33. -39. -42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 114.6

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/19/23 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 3.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.5% 13.8% 10.7% 0.0% 15.6% 12.3% 6.1%
Logistic: 2.7% 21.5% 8.9% 5.5% 0.6% 4.6% 1.3% 0.8%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.5% 13.1% 7.7% 5.4% 0.2% 6.7% 4.5% 2.3%
DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/19/23 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

We can probably get a minimal tropical storm out of this tbh. GFS/GEFS have gradually uptrended and there's good convective organization just no closed circulation.

[Sciencerocks]

Nice LLC.

[wxman57]

Nice LLC.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1354/cfAabD.gif

Just an exposed swirl with convection sheared off to the east. This system will never amount to much. The West Pac is where the action will be over the coming week.

[cycloneye]

TCFA.

WTPN21 PHNC 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
80 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 114.1W TO 15.3N 123.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 114.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
114.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1233 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192318Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW
INTENSE CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INVEST 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ROBUST, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-
15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95E WILL TREK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a depression to me.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become a little more organized
this morning. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive
for further development of this system during the next day or so,
and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin. By Saturday, further development is not
expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters
stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why SAB hasn’t Dvoraked yet.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Southwest of the Southern Baja California Peninsula (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization
since earlier today. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for further development of this system during the next day
or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could form while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. By Saturday, further
development is not expected as the system moves over cooler waters
and encounters stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

NHC likely bites at 9z.

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 122.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Convection associated with an area of low pressure located nearly
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has noticeably increased since last night. Earlier
last-light visible satellite imagery showed a well-defined
low-level circulation before deep convection formed and persisted
directly over it. The system therefore meets the criteria for a
tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical
Depression Four-E. The initial intensity is a conservative 30 kt,
based on the satellite trends and a subjective satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB of T2.5.

The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level westerly winds
which are forecast to increase during the next few days. The system
is also crossing over a gradient of sea surface temperatures towards
cooler waters. Given these marginal conditions and global model
guidance it is likely the depression will be short-lived. The
official intensity forecast shows the cyclone gradually weakening,
becoming a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipating by 60 h. However,
some models suggest it could weaken and dissipate sooner.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A ridge centered
over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the
depression with this general motion for the next day or so.
Afterward, the shallow vortex is expected to turn westward in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the
model guidance, which is generally in good agreement, and closest to
the simple consensus aid, TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.1N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[Kingarabian]

Think it warrants a name. Very cold tops associated with it. Im sure there's TS force winds somewhere.