EPAC: EUGENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2023080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1020W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, ep712023 to ep972023

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep972023.dat

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972023 08/04/23 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 32 36 47 60 70 74 73 68 66 61 54 47 39 32
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 32 36 47 60 70 74 73 68 66 61 54 47 39 32
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 46 50 51 48 43 37 30 24 19 15
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 5 7 13 14 15 11 13 9 5 9 11 15 19 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 1 -2 8 2 1 0 3 2 2 5 3 5
SHEAR DIR 327 360 15 30 42 23 352 360 39 56 92 142 180 210 225 213 217
SST (C) 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.0 28.8 26.0 23.7 21.8 20.9 20.3 19.9 19.5 19.3
POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 165 164 168 171 172 166 155 126 101 80 69 61 58 58 59
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 81 81 83 81 81 78 74 72 66 66 62 60 56 56 49 45 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 9 12 15 16 17 16 16 14 12 11 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -7 -6 2 0 13 0 -1 7 41 50 32 18 7 4 -3
200 MB DIV 59 59 74 51 58 52 43 26 19 -3 5 -14 27 6 4 10 -1
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 -5 -13 -17 -12 -8 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -12
LAND (KM) 428 419 422 397 374 335 337 359 343 472 596 735 850 876 860 773 666
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.7 18.2 19.7 21.2 22.6 24.1 25.2 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.9 103.7 104.4 105.1 106.5 108.0 110.0 112.8 116.1 119.3 121.8 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 10 11 14 16 17 15 11 6 3 3 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 44 59 59 49 47 58 51 20 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 11. 19. 26. 30. 32. 33. 32. 30. 27. 26. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 13. 16. 16. 14. 14. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 16. 27. 40. 50. 54. 53. 48. 46. 41. 34. 27. 19. 12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 102.0

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.87 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.6% 59.7% 39.7% 24.7% 17.7% 41.5% 53.0% 29.0%
Bayesian: 1.9% 28.0% 16.4% 6.2% 1.6% 22.3% 23.9% 7.1%
Consensus: 5.5% 29.3% 18.7% 10.3% 6.4% 21.3% 25.7% 12.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[ElectricStorm]

Should be the next NS but probably won't have enough time to become anything strong. Models seem to be trending weaker as well. Maybe a moderate to strong TS with a chance at Cat 1 is possible, but I'm not sure we'll see anything higher than that.

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two as it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not far
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972023 08/04/23 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 29 37 48 57 60 57 50 45 40 36 32 31 31
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 29 37 48 57 60 57 50 45 40 36 32 31 31
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 28 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 16 17 20 21 11 14 14 12 12 14 24 29 27 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 2 1 0 4 8 4 -4 -1 -2 -2 2 0 5 9
SHEAR DIR 24 35 33 33 17 357 360 30 53 91 126 170 187 194 199 214 228
SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.2 30.4 29.6 25.8 23.4 21.0 20.2 19.5 19.0 18.1 17.3 16.4
POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 165 168 168 171 164 124 98 72 62 59 59 60 60 60
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -50.6 -51.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 9 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 82 81 76 72 68 65 59 55 51 48 42 41 40 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 8 10 13 15 17 18 17 16 14 13 12 10 9 6
850 MB ENV VOR -35 -25 -13 -18 -9 4 -9 18 -6 19 26 29 23 22 29 23 39
200 MB DIV 70 63 71 84 63 59 41 39 31 -4 3 2 0 20 3 14 23
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -5 0 -5 -13 -22 -16 -10 -4 0 -1 -7 -14 -21 -15
LAND (KM) 514 506 467 424 385 306 360 262 338 439 578 687 704 603 466 287 113
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.8 17.5 19.2 21.0 23.0 25.0 26.3 27.6 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.0 104.6 105.3 105.9 107.1 108.9 111.5 114.8 118.1 120.6 122.3 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 11 13 17 19 16 11 7 5 6 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 50 52 46 41 47 47 43 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 11. 19. 26. 28. 29. 27. 25. 24. 26. 31. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 15. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 9. 17. 28. 37. 40. 37. 30. 25. 20. 16. 12. 11. 11.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.4

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 5.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 2.0% 7.4% 5.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9%
Consensus: 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 2.5% 2.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972023 INVEST 08/04/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have become better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but
not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2023080418, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1037W, 25, 1007, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Likely a TC.

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite data suggest
the circulation of the system is becoming better defined, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later tonight or on Saturday
as it moves generally northwestward at about 15 mph, parallel to but
not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

No TD yet, but they can classify if a good ASCAT arrives.

EP, 97, 2023080500, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1043W, 30, 1006, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

ASCAT not the issue here. It’s been closed since yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1687663642156691456

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 97, 202308050000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1580N, 10380W, , 3, 25, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T, Some solid banding beginning to develop across NE se

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 050023
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 16.4N

D. 103.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. 2310Z
SSMIS PASS GAVE GOOD CENTER FIX. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW IMPROVING ALQDS. MET
AND PT=1.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP97):
During the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms have
increased in association with a low pressure area centered about
150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form later today or tonight. The disturbance is
forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph, parallel to but not
far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along
the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system this weekend. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ22 KNES 051231
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 05/1200Z

C. 17.4N

D. 105.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 AND
THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Subtrop]

EP, 06, 2023080512, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1063W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 100, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, TRANSITIONED, epA72023 to ep062023,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 062023.dat