EPAC: FERNANDA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2023081100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1070W, 25, 1009, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep982023.dat

More south in latitud than Dora in that area.

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern
Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward at
about 15 mph
across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

This needs to stay south of 15-16N or so if this wants to be another ACE grinder. The upper environment looks manageable at first glance.

[cycloneye]

This needs to stay south of 15-16N or so if this wants to be another ACE grinder. The upper environment looks manageable at first glance.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1139414945742716988/Untitled.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1139410503345639604/Untitled.png

Also, has to stay south of the cold wake of Dora.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific (EP98):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and
a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
westward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2023081112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1081W, 25, 1009, DB

[Ntxw]

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF have backed off but ASCAT last night was solid.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is becoming better defined. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while it moves westward or northwestward
at about 10 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2023081118, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1091W, 25, 1009, DB

[ElectricStorm]

Would love to see another long tracker although the models aren't super enthusiastic. Maybe it can overperform

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Its present orientation does not look conducive for quick development. Needs to rotate.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with an area
of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined. However,
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or
northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion of the
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2023081200, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1100W, 25, 1008, LO

[Yellow Evan]

Classifiable.

[Kingarabian]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/1139796622126108732/goes18_vis-swir_98E_202308120045.gif

Classifiable.

Way better. Ready to be named.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
However, satellite-derived wind data from overnight indicated that
the system did not yet have a well-defined center of circulation.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while it moves westward or northwestward at
about 10 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2023081212, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1118W, 25, 1008, LO

SHIP intensity up to hurricane.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982023 08/12/23 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 59 67 71 68 65 62 60 57 56 56 56
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 59 67 71 68 65 62 60 57 56 56 56
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 48 49 46 42 38 34 32 31 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 6 2 6 8 15 10 5 1 2 4 3 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 2 0 3 5 4 0 0 5 6 5 0 4 -2
SHEAR DIR 22 24 32 38 35 39 91 103 107 119 160 156 215 249 277 158 218
SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.7 27.2 26.3 25.3 23.7 22.8 22.8 23.3 23.9
POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 157 156 155 155 155 157 151 136 127 118 101 92 92 97 103
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 67 65 68 67 65 61 59 56 54 48 42 35 30 25 22 19 19
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 11 12 13 16 16 16 15 13 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 0 4 8 13 26 27 24 28 30 19 30 17 29 26 21
200 MB DIV 38 49 53 50 54 52 42 7 -16 -11 -32 -8 -49 -34 7 -1 -4
700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -5 -2 2 1 0 -1 1 4 5 7 6 10 4 11
LAND (KM) 941 996 1005 1018 1029 1055 1129 1189 1230 1333 1458 1629 1847 2079 1881 1561 1296
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.1 116.3 117.6 119.0 120.5 122.5 124.8 127.5 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 15 15 15 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 44 50 40 24 18 19 22 28 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 35. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 10. 12. 10. 7. 4. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 34. 42. 46. 43. 40. 37. 35. 32. 31. 31. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 111.8

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 8.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 0.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 17.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.3% 29.5% 13.6% 7.6% 2.2% 10.7% 7.3% 6.7%
Bayesian: 0.4% 9.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Consensus: 2.6% 19.9% 10.7% 2.7% 0.8% 10.6% 8.8% 2.3%
DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 10.0% 18.0% 41.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982023 INVEST 08/12/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##