CPAC: GREG - Remnants - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

EP, 99, 2023081212, , BEST, 0, 93N, 1335W, 20, 1010, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep992023.dat

Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Extratropical94]

SHIPS makes 99 a hurricane

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992023 08/12/23 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 43 55 66 72 74 75 76 74 71 68 65 63
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 43 55 66 72 74 75 76 74 71 68 65 63
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 41 48 54 57 60 59 55 50 45 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 11 5 6 1 3 6 9 11 15 20 18 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 -2 1 3 5 3 1 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 52 49 62 60 52 75 87 75 234 245 174 201 238 250 250 261 249
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.5 26.7 26.8 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.3 27.0 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 152 152 149 144 141 141 133 134 127 125 124 126 132 132
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 69 69 66 66 67 65 59 57 55 53 48 43 38 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 13 13 14 15 14 13 14 12 10 10 8 6
850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 6 15 9 -1 -14 -19 -23 -19 -22 -18
200 MB DIV 111 74 54 51 47 21 0 -21 0 22 14 25 -7 -33 -13 -3 -33
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 3 5 10 11 9 12 5 -1
LAND (KM) 2557 2445 2342 2254 2158 1981 1807 1600 1349 1039 727 450 225 215 313 275 324
LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.6 10.8 11.4 12.6 14.1 15.5 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 133.5 134.5 135.4 136.2 137.1 138.8 140.7 142.9 145.4 148.2 150.9 153.4 155.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 10 11 14 15 15 14 11 11 9 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 16 19 28 26 9 8 2 3 0 5 1 2 13 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 21. 32. 40. 46. 50. 52. 53. 52. 50. 48. 47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 6. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 23. 35. 46. 52. 54. 55. 56. 54. 51. 48. 45. 43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.3 133.5

** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992023 INVEST 08/12/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.3% 17.7% 5.0% 2.7% 2.1% 5.4% 36.3% 60.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 6.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 1.8% 12.1% 20.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992023 INVEST 08/12/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[ElectricStorm]

If it waits a little longer to consolidate we could have our first CPAC name since 2019. Could be another WPAC crossover if it lasts long enough.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Probably about a day away.

[Extratropical94]

Western East Pacific (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific (EP99):
Satellite wind data indicate the circulation associated with an area
of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is gradually becoming better defined. Although its
shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system.
A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the far western portion of the basin, and then crosses into the
Central Pacific basin late tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Probably about a day away.

I'd say this is correct because it looks to me like it is there now.

[Sciencerocks]

[Extratropical94]

Western East Pacific (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for continued development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is
forecast to cross into the Central Pacific basin late tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Rapid TCG started by an increase in convection around 5z. I'd be disappointed if it wasn't declared at 21z.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 131819
TCSENP

A. (99E)

B. 13/1800Z

C. 11.1N

D. 137.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT ARE 1.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[cycloneye]

EP, 99, 2023081318, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1371W, 25, 1009, LO

[Hurricane2022]

The F13 will implode if it manages to become a TS before reaching 140W

[Yellow Evan]

Confirms a tropical depression.

[ElectricStorm]

Not sure why NHC is waiting so long to classify systems this year. This is easily a TD

[Yellow Evan]

NHC seems to be doing what ever RMSC does these days and waiting for T2.0 for classification.

[Sciencerocks]