ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023081700, , BEST, 0, 128N, 250W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al792023 to al982023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982023.dat

[IcyTundra]

Just to clarify for everyone this is for the area just SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands.

[Teban54]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is forming just to the south-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands, in association with a tropical wave
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Further development of this low is possible, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend before environmental
conditions become unfavorable by early next week as the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

[WiscoWx02]

This Invest doesn't really have much of a future in my opinion, if the dry air doesn't kill it the TUTT induced shear would. El Nino is really going to be making its presence known against it from what I am seeing.

[ElectricStorm]

Has a chance to become a TD or weak TS but shouldn't be anything more than that. Probably needs to get going soon if it wants to form though.

[ElectricStorm]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure, partially associated with a tropical
wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.1N 34.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2023 60 16.1N 34.9W 1008 31
0000UTC 20.08.2023 72 16.7N 36.0W 1008 28
1200UTC 20.08.2023 84 17.5N 37.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 21.08.2023 96 CEASED TRACKING

[abajan]

Excerpt from 8 AM Tropical Weather Update:

A broad area of low pressure, partially associated with a tropical
wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Code red now

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Over the next few days
environmental conditions appears mostly favorable for additional
development while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at
around 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend before environmental
conditions become unfavorable for development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Teban54]

Despite having great structure for at least 24 hours, 98L has had trouble firing convection, especially near the center. These towers to the west of the broad rotation are the strongest we've seen so far. We'll see whether that helps with consolidation.

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023081812, , BEST, 0, 155N, 329W, 25, 1009, LO

[ScottNAtlanta]

It seems 99L and 98L are having trouble breaking free of the monsoon trough, which makes sense. That is really the only source of convergence in the area.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1692529605712695712

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend
while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at about 10
mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week,
upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and
further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]