ATL: GERT - Models

[Teban54]

Looks like models are shifting away from 99L in favor of a disturbance further west in the monsoon trough.
 https://twitter.com/srmullens/status/1692118790677426184



 https://twitter.com/srmullens/status/1692121821875765410



 https://twitter.com/srmullens/status/1692121842230685718

[Blown Away]

06z ECENS very active... IMO 06z ECENS starting to hint/lean towards the energy consolidating farther W and potentially create a storm that moves into the Caribbean and then N somewhere between 65-80W.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1692191330598822217

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET says forms and dissipates in Caribbean:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 15.3N 72.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2023 132 15.7N 73.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 23.08.2023 144 16.6N 73.6W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.08.2023 156 17.1N 74.3W 1006 28
1200UTC 24.08.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

[Blown Away]

12z CMC... Models seem to be latching on the to the disturbance W of 99L and if so the Caribbean, Bahamas and CONUS could be in play.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is that a separate disturbance or is that actually 99L that gets into the Caribbean and then develops on the CMC? It is hard to tell one from another with so many potential areas of interest and all of the models doing different things. Tidbits 12Z GFS is stuck on hour 168 but through that time period the GFS doesn't seem to want to develop this like the CMC did.

[cycloneye]

Also 12z GFS with the front one.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET says forms and dissipates in Caribbean:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 15.3N 72.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2023 132 15.7N 73.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 23.08.2023 144 16.6N 73.6W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.08.2023 156 17.1N 74.3W 1006 28
1200UTC 24.08.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

After a review of other models, I'm thinking this on the 12Z UKMET is actually from a feature west of 99L.

[Hurrilurker]

The thing that forms out of nowhere and crosses Cuba looks pretty scary, especially if it goes a couple more degrees west before fully forming. It's not even an invest is it?

[wxman57]

Is that a separate disturbance or is that actually 99L that gets into the Caribbean and then develops on the CMC? It is hard to tell one from another with so many potential areas of interest and all of the models doing different things. Tidbits 12Z GFS is stuck on hour 168 but through that time period the GFS doesn't seem to want to develop this like the CMC did.

There is another feature west of 99L that hasn't been identified. Wave is along 48W now. That's the feature that reaches the NE Caribbean on Sunday. There, it'll encounter a wall of shear ahead of a deep TUTT. RIP, wave... I know the 12Z EC has it developing into a TS south of St. Croix Monday morning, but I'm not buying it.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Interesting run, TS over PR then finishes with loop in SW Atlantic... EPAC to GOM crossover, whew!

[Blown Away]

12z ECENS...

[AutoPenalti]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9X1DCW8n/12z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
12z ECENS...

That one Cat 5 member... yikes.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9X1DCW8n/12z-ECENS.jpg [/url]
12z ECENS...

That one Cat 5 member... yikes.

(2) 936 & 927mb...

[Spacecoast]

18z GFS(AVNI) & 18z GEFS ens mean (AEMN)

UK:

TVCN Consensus:

[Nimbus]

The thing that forms out of nowhere and crosses Cuba looks pretty scary, especially if it goes a couple more degrees west before fully forming. It's not even an invest is it?

The Canadian must have caught the ghost storm from the GFS a few runs ago.
Storms in that area do undergo rapid intensification in a favorable environment.
Not sure why both Canadian and GFS had this?

Most of the models have 99L finding a weakness or a major trough, still far out but I'll take that.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1693067129895940121

[Landy]

12z Euro actually brings Gert back to life in the subtropics. Of course, it's been very inconsistent in this area. It would be funny, though...

[BobHarlem]

Bermuda having to watch out for Gert is definitely not expected.

[cycloneye]

Euro has Gert hanging around for a while.