ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

AL, 90, 2023081906,   , BEST,   0, 120N,  575W,  20, 1007, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  150,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, al732023 to al902023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902023.dat

New invest tagged for the disturbance closest to the Lesser Antilles.

[Hurricane2022]

After 84 years!! Hurricane Emily/Franklin is coming!!!

[Landy]

[REDHurricane]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1142357582103728218/goes16_ir_90L_202308190355.gif

Looks like a TD, no?

[ouragans]

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
this weekend and during the early and middle parts of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[NDG]

Nice vorticity seen with it on radar.

[NDG]

Barbados reports 1005mb surface pressure, down 3 mb from 24 hrs ago, 6 mb from 48 hrs ago.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries? ... B&hours=72

[cycloneye]

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles (AL90):
A tropical wave located just east of the Windward Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form during the early and middle parts of next week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the
Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Blown Away]

Old


Current 8am??

GFS/Euro continue driving 90L through Hispaniola, but the NHC appears to think 90L goes farther W in the Caribbean based on the adjustments to their 7 day cone??

[NDG]

Best looking invest in the Atlantic this morning.
Props to the Euro for sniffing this out a couple of days ago.

[tolakram]

Popcorn convection and some apparent banding, but hard to tell what's underneath.

[GCANE]

Watching this one closely.
Carib has overall more high CAPE air than currently in the GoM.
Global models may be underestimating at this point.

[tolakram]

About to get a look at the surface.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14277.5&y=8419.5&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[jlauderdal]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1142357582103728218/goes16_ir_90L_202308190355.gif

Looks like a TD, no?

How many systems in that area have we seen that look awesome on IR but are really nothing more than a sharp trough, we need to know whats happening at the surface on up. There was one a couple of years ago that blew through the islands that looked mean on IR, had 50+ wind but no LLC

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023081912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 588W, 20, 1007, DB

[boca]

If this goes further west in the Caribbean than currently forecast it will sure make for an interesting week ahead.

[tropicwatch]

925mb vorticity increasing nicely this morning.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023081912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 588W, 20, 1007, DB

A little change.

AL, 90, 2023081912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 588W, 25, 1007, DB

[GCANE]

Looks like if strengthens in the east Carib, Hispaniola at risk.
Weak development and possibly pushing into the west Carib.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1692900217035661312