ATL: HAROLD - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023082012, , BEST, 0, 241N, 833W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al722023 to al912023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912023.dat

[jaguars_22]

Yep unfortunately it’s going to make landfall in Mexico

[ChrisH-UK]

91L at this moment

[REDHurricane]

It's still clearly dealing with some northwesterly shear but nevertheless starting to show some signs of low to mid-level consolidation:

925mb vorticity


850mb vorticity


700mb vorticity


500mb vorticity

[zzzh]

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking TS at landfall for now. Hopefully southern TX can get some decent rain

[Rgv20]

Looking very healthy today. Looks like a TS at landfall in Lower Texas Coast/NE Mexico would be a good bet. Looking at the most recent 12z models the landfall have been sped up from Tuesday Evening/Night to Tuesday Morning.

[cycloneye]

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this afternoon in
association with an area of disturbed weather located in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Additional development of this system is possible as
it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a tropical depression
could form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[wxman57]

Models have it inland into south TX between 7am-10am Tuesday, which is easily within the next 48 hrs. How are chances of development greater beyond 48 hrs?

[NDG]

It wouldn’t take much to close off a circulation, is almost there. The GOM doing its magic as usual.

 https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1693321873642156094

[psyclone]

PTC before the day is out IMO. Looks too good not to pull the trigger and the tailwind of climo on bell ring day makes it all the more fitting.

[toad strangler]

Models have it inland into south TX between 7am-10am Tuesday, which is easily within the next 48 hrs. How are chances of development greater beyond 48 hrs?

Crossover?

[NDG]

Models have it inland into south TX between 7am-10am Tuesday, which is easily within the next 48 hrs. How are chances of development greater beyond 48 hrs?

Crossover?

Nope, is not going to the EPAC.

[REDHurricane]

LLC forming somewhere around this area? (excuse the poor gif making skills)

[REDHurricane]

Moisture envelope looks to be coming together a bit as well. I would not be at all surprised if this ends up a hurricane before landfall -- moist environment + low wind shear + 31ºC and higher SST + existing impulse = increased chance of unexpected intensification

[Sciencerocks]

[jabman98]

Pretty much all of Texas needs rain so I'm glad for anyone that gets some from this system. But dang it, I wish we could get some of it here in the Houston area.

[Stratton23]

91L is becoming better organized, and maybe a little quicker than some of the model guidance expected

[Into The Fog]

Its 108, my tomatoes are dying I'm flying the white flag of surrender
As wxman said "NO soup for you, Galveston." I know my family in San Antonio is gonna be happy with some rain though.

[Jr0d]

Looks very close to being a depression right now. I am surprised the NHC is not issuing PTC advisory already as TS watches will need to be issued soon.

I would bet recon will Gert.