ATL: JOSE - Remnants - Discussion

[zzzh]

AL, 92, 2023082100, , BEST, 0, 148N, 242W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, SPAWNINVEST, al742023 to al922023,

[ElectricStorm]

Could be a nice ACE producer. Would love a nice recurving major. Hopefully misses Bermuda

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms over the Cabo Verde Islands and portions
of the tropical eastern Atlantic are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Fancy1002]

Could this be it, the I storm of legend!

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms over portions of the tropical eastern
Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent

[Extratropical94]

2AM: Down to 30/60

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week or over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern and central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions now appear only marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, but a tropical depression could
still form later this week or over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern and central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for some development late this week, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[CrazyC83]

The longer it is delayed, the better the chance it can break the TUTT and become the legendary I storm?

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS never really develops it but it does a loop in the open Atlantic and then gets sent SW towards the Bahamas and FL at the end of the run. This little guy might be around for a while if something like that happens

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable
for some slow development through early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[abajan]

If it hasn't developed by now,
It will never, never develop ooh ooh ooh

Sung to the tune of Simply Red's If You Don't Know By Now

I could be wrong.

[cycloneye]

Convection has been growing in the past few hours.

[cycloneye]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
favorable for some slow development through early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. This system's circulation has become better
defined since yesterday, despite marginal environmental conditions,
and further slow development is possible. The low has the potential
to become a tropical depression by the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Despite marginal environmental conditions, slow
development is possible and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2023082412, , BEST, 0, 180N, 400W, 20, 1009, DB