ATL: JOSE - Models

[Hammy]

GFS seems alone in doing much with this, and seems like it's sucked in a large amount of dry, stable air over the last several hours.

[Spacecoast]

Multi-models for 92L....

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS really backing off on this. With Franklin likely becoming a hurricane north of the islands, this might end up getting sheared quite a bit.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS really backing off on this. With Franklin likely becoming a hurricane north of the islands, this might end up getting sheared quite a bit.

Nope, this is surely one wave to watch as the cfs and now the gfs show.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs gets this into the Bahamas and it explodes once there. (whoops should be in model thread)

[cycloneye]

Split the model posts to create the 92L models thread. Wow to the GOM as a strong cane.

[IcyTundra]

If it stays weak like the 12Z GFS it could get pretty far west imo. GFS has been showing more ridging in the Atlantic compared to past runs.

[Beef Stew]

Splited the model posts to create the 92L models thread. Wow to the GOM as a strong cane.

https://i.imgur.com/dR5mwos.gif

With a track like that shooting through the Florida straights this year, we’d have the return of Rita, 18 years later. While that one scenario is unlikely to happen, if 92L doesn’t develop in the short term, and makes it further west before finding better conditions… we’d better look out.

[cycloneye]

Landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/0ArJGod.png

No thanks

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS really backing off on this. With Franklin likely becoming a hurricane north of the islands, this might end up getting sheared quite a bit.

Welp I stopped watching the run too early

Yeah let's hope that track doesn't happen

[cycloneye]

The split between GFS with a strong cane and Euro with nothing comes once again to the spotlight.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS is the weakest run yet maybe a TD at best on this run due to shear induced by Franklin as 92L is in close proximity. It's going to be hard to pin down exactly what 92L is going to do until we get a better grip on what Franklin is going to do.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HAFS-A makes this a solid TS

HAFS-B bombs it to 967mb at the end of the run

No HWRF/HMON runs yet

[Landy]

00z Euro run actually gives 92L a future in the subtropics, and a wacky one at that. ICON does agree with development and stalling in the same area, as well. Every other global model is still bearish.

(Ignore the fake TC near Cabo Verde)

[cycloneye]

12z EURO continues to develop 92L.

[cycloneye]

Different from the Gert remnants that hang around, the models have José absorbed by Franklin.