ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:01 am

AL, 95, 2023090212, , BEST, 0, 99N, 194W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, al712023 to al952023,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952023.dat

Thread that was the topic for this wave at Talking Tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123625

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:10 am

This is gonna be a long one. This has a solid shot at being a 40+ ACE major.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby zzzh » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:11 am

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 38 44 48 53 61 66 70 73 76 79
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 38 44 48 53 61 66 70 73 76 79
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 27 28 28 28 28 31 35 40 45 50 55 62 68 75 81
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 22 28 27 23 16 9 2 8 11 11 9 16 13 18 14 18

Easterly shear will be gone by 36h.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:19 am

Hopefully, when it's over and done with, we won't look back at this thread feeling the same way we did for Irma.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby zzzh » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:24 am

Image
Already has a closed circulation with 30kt wind :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:25 am

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/H7uSS0f.png
Already has a closed circulation with 30kt wind :lol: :lol: :lol:

There appear to be multiple competing vortices for this system at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:27 am

This one looks impressive so early. You can already see the turning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:27 am

The 6z GFS just isn't believable near the end of the run. The GFS has a habit sometimes plowing a storm head first into a ridge. It isn't going to do that. I'd say the islands and the whole east coast is still fair game with this one. The GFS does bring this closer to the US on the 6z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby mantis83 » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:29 am

Teban54 wrote:Hopefully, when it's over and done with, we won't look back at this thread feeling the same way we did for Irma.

don't worry we won't, no sw dips with strong high pressure to the north
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby zzzh » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:31 am

WalterWhite wrote:
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/H7uSS0f.png
Already has a closed circulation with 30kt wind :lol: :lol: :lol:

There appear to be multiple competing vortices for this system at the moment.

No. There is only 1.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:44 am

Definitely watching this one with a close eye... absolutely not sold on the classic, Cape Verde OTS track. Especially if development ends up being delayed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby Landy » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:48 am

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/H7uSS0f.png
Already has a closed circulation with 30kt wind :lol: :lol: :lol:

Another view.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby WalterWhite » Sat Sep 02, 2023 8:59 am


So is it already nameable? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby Jr0d » Sat Sep 02, 2023 9:10 am

While climo favors a recurve, it is concerning the GFS builds a high pressure right after it shows the recurve. 240 to 380 hours out is fantasy land besides.

Lets deal with the Leeward threat before getting caught up in fantasy land model runs, that is what im trying to tell myself.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Sat Sep 02, 2023 9:15 am

Bermuda already watching this one while Idalia still sits over us.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 02, 2023 9:20 am


Decent, but right now it’s not aligned with the 850mb center, which is closer to 8-9N.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 02, 2023 9:37 am

All these people who are saying recurve I think they should wait till it forms. I have seen too many so called recurves affect us down the road
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2023 9:40 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2023 9:57 am



 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1697957666646077943


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby Woofde » Sat Sep 02, 2023 10:12 am

This could be a long thread if it follows the modeling. These are the storms everyone looks for to make a season. Definitely would be watching this if I was in the Islands.
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