ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023091118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 211W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982023.dat

Topic that was the thread for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123685

[cycloneye]

Rotation is evident.

[Teban54]

This has potential to do some nasty things. Hope that doesn't materialize.

[ElectricStorm]

Will probably take some time to develop but could end up being another nice ACE producer. Too early to rule out any impacts down the road though

[cycloneye]

Will probably take some time to develop but could end up being another nice ACE producer. Too early to rule out any impacts down the road though

What a season with El Niño around. The ACE will be plentiful now as Margot is a Hurricane,with Lee moving slow and this one having great potential down the road to get many ACE units.

[Hurricaneman]

The only thing El Niño did was possibly shut down the Caribbean

As for 98L I believe this could end up on a similar track to Lee but we really won’t know until late week or the weekend

[Sciencerocks]

El nino works by increasing rising air over the tropical pacific. Well, when you have as warm if not warmer Atlantic it doesn't allow for the same kind of focus on one basin. Something to consider.

Plus with the warmer Atlantic you have more energy. 26c and 29c is all the difference between a cat1 and a cat4.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Will probably take some time to develop but could end up being another nice ACE producer. Too early to rule out any impacts down the road though

What a season with El Niño around. The ACE will be plentiful now as Margot is a Hurricane,with Lee moving slow and this one having great potential down the road to get many ACE units.

We are already past 80 ACE points, and it isn't even past the peak of season yet

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This system is currently producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms but environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, especially after is merges with
an area of low pressure to its west (AL97). A tropical depression is
likely to form from the combined system by this weekend as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This system is currently producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms but environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, especially after is merges with
an area of low pressure to its west (AL97). A tropical depression is
likely to form from the combined system by this weekend as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Code Red already, goodness

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2023091200, , BEST, 0, 118N, 221W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

It will take a few days to organize while the merge between 97L and 98L occurs.

[msbee]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This system is currently producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms but environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, especially after is merges with
an area of low pressure to its west (AL97). A tropical depression is
likely to form from the combined system by this weekend as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Here we go again!

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This system is currently producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms but environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, especially after is merges with
an area of low pressure to its west (AL97). A tropical depression is
likely to form from the combined system by this weekend as it moves
westward to west-nort
hwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Here we go again!

Yes Barbara. Hopefully, it recurves and not be a threat to any island.

[Landy]

Interesting TWO this early morning with the AOI now explicitly referring to both 97L and 98L thanks to the naming scheme changes.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97 and AL98):
Two broad areas of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
are each producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
These lows are forecast to merge in a couple of days, and the
combined system is likely to become a tropical depression by this
weekend while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at about 15
mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

Interesting TWO this early morning with the AOI now explicitly referring to both 97L and 98L thanks to the naming scheme changes.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97 and AL98):
Two broad areas of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
are each producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
These lows are forecast to merge in a couple of days, and the
combined system is likely to become a tropical depression by this
weekend while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at about 15
mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The models have been showing for a while the two systems merging and the forming a tropical cyclone.

[abajan]

Excerpt from 2 p.m. TWO:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97 and AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to consolidate, with a low on the western side
becoming dominant over the next day or two. Gradual development of
the low is expected after that, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward
or northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.