BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 75.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape Fear, North
Carolina, northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and the Chesapeake Bay south of
Smith Point.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Surf City, North Carolina
to Chincoteague, Virginia, and the for the Chesapeake Bay south of
Smith Point, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.7 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to
northward motion is forecast by late Friday and continue into
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is
expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning
area Friday night and early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast
of North Carolina. Regardless of whether the system become a
tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm
conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA...2-4 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point...2-4 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds...2-4 ft
South Santee River SC to Surf City NC 1-3 ft
Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.
RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 6 inches, across the eastern
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey, Friday
through Sunday. This rainfall may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding impacts.
SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Duck, North Carolina,
to Chincoteague Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of
Windmill Point, and for the Neuse River, the Pamlico River, and
portions of Pamlico Sound.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward in
Chesapeake Bay to North Beach, and into the Tidal Potomac to Cobb
Island.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Tidal Potomac south of
Colonial Beach.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse River, Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Albemarle and the remainder of Pamlico Sound
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
29.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the
warning area Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the
coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a
tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm
conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.
RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.
SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night
through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
High-resolution visible satellite imagery and surface synoptic
observations indicate that the disturbance has not yet acquired a
well-defined center of circulation. There is a distinct
comma-shaped curved band of convection over the eastern portion of
the system, with moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over
the area. The current intensity is set at 30 kt based on surface
observations.
Since there is still no distinct center the initial motion, 360/7
kt, is an educated guess. The dynamical model guidance suggests
that there may be some center re-formations during the next day or
two. However, the system should move generally northward to
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while embedded on
the eastern side of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United
States. The official forecast is close to the previous one and is
also close to the corrected dynamical model consensus.
Strong vertical wind shear is likely to persist over the system,
but the global models show strengthening before landfall. This
intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic
energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the
system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics
through landfall. Nonetheless, the system is likely to cause
tropical-storm-force winds, locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous
storm surges over the warned areas in the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic United States. Interests should be aware that
hazardous conditions will extend well away from the forecast center
locations.
Key Messages:
1. An area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen off the
southeastern U.S. coast and bring tropical-storm-force winds, storm
surge, heavy rain, and high surf to large portions of the southeast
and mid-Atlantic United States coast beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday.
4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 29.2N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/0600Z 30.8N 75.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 22/1800Z 32.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 23/0600Z 33.8N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 35.6N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 37.3N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 38.7N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1800Z 40.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Duck, North Carolina,
to Chincoteague Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of
Windmill Point, and for the Neuse River, the Pamlico River, and
portions of Pamlico Sound.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward in
Chesapeake Bay to North Beach, and into the Tidal Potomac to Cobb
Island.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Tidal Potomac south of
Colonial Beach.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse River, Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Albemarle and the remainder of Pamlico Sound
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
29.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the
warning area Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the
coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a
tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm
conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.
RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.
SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night
through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
High-resolution visible satellite imagery and surface synoptic
observations indicate that the disturbance has not yet acquired a
well-defined center of circulation. There is a distinct
comma-shaped curved band of convection over the eastern portion of
the system, with moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over
the area. The current intensity is set at 30 kt based on surface
observations.
Since there is still no distinct center the initial motion, 360/7
kt, is an educated guess. The dynamical model guidance suggests
that there may be some center re-formations during the next day or
two. However, the system should move generally northward to
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while embedded on
the eastern side of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United
States. The official forecast is close to the previous one and is
also close to the corrected dynamical model consensus.
Strong vertical wind shear is likely to persist over the system,
but the global models show strengthening before landfall. This
intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic
energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the
system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics
through landfall. Nonetheless, the system is likely to cause
tropical-storm-force winds, locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous
storm surges over the warned areas in the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic United States. Interests should be aware that
hazardous conditions will extend well away from the forecast center
locations.
Key Messages:
1. An area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen off the
southeastern U.S. coast and bring tropical-storm-force winds, storm
surge, heavy rain, and high surf to large portions of the southeast
and mid-Atlantic United States coast beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday.
4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 29.2N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/0600Z 30.8N 75.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 22/1800Z 32.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 23/0600Z 33.8N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 35.6N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 37.3N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 38.7N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1800Z 40.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139329
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW
PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center
of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has
become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated
deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around
the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few
convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of
the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA
buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35
kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the
center on the north side of an attached warm front.
The center does not appear to have moved much since the time it
became better defined. Based on previous fixes, the current motion
is estimated to be north-northeastward (015 degrees) at 3 kt.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the center should begin moving
northward--or re-form to the north--overnight, with a northward or
north-northwestward motion continuing through Sunday morning. This
forecast track brings the center of the low inland across eastern
North Carolina on Saturday, and then across the southern Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Except
for the errant HWRF (which appears too far west), the rest of the
guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near the
middle of the envelope. This new forecast is a bit east of the
previous prediction, mainly for the portion of the track over land.
Baroclinic processes associated with a sharp upper-level trough to
the west of the low are expected induce strengthening, and the NHC
intensity forecast is close to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions,
bringing the maximum winds to 50 kt in 24-36 hours before the
center reaches the North Carolina coast. In addition, simulated
satellite imagery suggests there could be an increase of deep
convection near the low's center by Friday evening, and phase-space
diagrams show the system just barely entering the deep warm core
regime. Therefore, transition to a tropical cyclone is shown by 24
hours, although there still is some uncertainty on that occurrence
due to frontal boundaries still in the area. Weakening is forecast
after the center moves onshore, and the system is expected to
become extratropical again by 60 hours. An official forecast is
only provided out through 72 hours since global model fields
show the low becoming absorbed by the associated frontal boundary
off the New Jersey coast by 96 hours.
Key Messages:
1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further
before it reaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area
beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday night.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 29.5N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/1200Z 31.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 23/0000Z 32.5N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 23/1200Z 34.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 36.4N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 37.9N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW
PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023
Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center
of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has
become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated
deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around
the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few
convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of
the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA
buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35
kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the
center on the north side of an attached warm front.
The center does not appear to have moved much since the time it
became better defined. Based on previous fixes, the current motion
is estimated to be north-northeastward (015 degrees) at 3 kt.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the center should begin moving
northward--or re-form to the north--overnight, with a northward or
north-northwestward motion continuing through Sunday morning. This
forecast track brings the center of the low inland across eastern
North Carolina on Saturday, and then across the southern Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Except
for the errant HWRF (which appears too far west), the rest of the
guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near the
middle of the envelope. This new forecast is a bit east of the
previous prediction, mainly for the portion of the track over land.
Baroclinic processes associated with a sharp upper-level trough to
the west of the low are expected induce strengthening, and the NHC
intensity forecast is close to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions,
bringing the maximum winds to 50 kt in 24-36 hours before the
center reaches the North Carolina coast. In addition, simulated
satellite imagery suggests there could be an increase of deep
convection near the low's center by Friday evening, and phase-space
diagrams show the system just barely entering the deep warm core
regime. Therefore, transition to a tropical cyclone is shown by 24
hours, although there still is some uncertainty on that occurrence
due to frontal boundaries still in the area. Weakening is forecast
after the center moves onshore, and the system is expected to
become extratropical again by 60 hours. An official forecast is
only provided out through 72 hours since global model fields
show the low becoming absorbed by the associated frontal boundary
off the New Jersey coast by 96 hours.
Key Messages:
1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further
before it reaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area
beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday night.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 29.5N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/1200Z 31.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 23/0000Z 32.5N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 23/1200Z 34.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 36.4N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 37.9N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
The low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is gradually
organizing and strengthening this morning. The cyclone is
developing subtropical characteristics with deep convection
consolidating on the system's north side and the center gaining
definition, but there are still some frontal features associated
with it. NOAA buoy 41002 well off the coast of Cape Hatteras has
seen a significant pressure drop during the past several hours, and
the latest report was down to 1002 mb with 30-kt winds. A
saildrone measured winds of 32 kt well northeast of the center
several hours ago. Based on these pressure and wind observations as
well as satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt. Based on recent trends, it seems likely that
the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today.
The system has been moving erratically overnight, but recent
satellite images suggest that it is now moving northward at about 7
kt. A northward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves on the west side of a subtropical
high, taking the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina early
Saturday and over portions of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night
and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous
one and not far from the GFS and ECMWF models.
The notable strengthening that has occurred overnight is due to a
combination of baroclinic influences from the mid- to upper-level
trough just to the west of the system and the warm Gulf Stream
waters. The system will likely strengthen a little more before it
reaches the coast of North Carolina. After landfall, land
interaction, dry air, and strong shear should lead to weakening and
cause the system to transition back to an extratropical low in a
couple of days.
It should be noted that the cyclone has a large wind field, and
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well ahead of the center.
Key Messages:
1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
a large area of tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to
strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina
early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within
the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and
continuing into Saturday night.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
The low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is gradually
organizing and strengthening this morning. The cyclone is
developing subtropical characteristics with deep convection
consolidating on the system's north side and the center gaining
definition, but there are still some frontal features associated
with it. NOAA buoy 41002 well off the coast of Cape Hatteras has
seen a significant pressure drop during the past several hours, and
the latest report was down to 1002 mb with 30-kt winds. A
saildrone measured winds of 32 kt well northeast of the center
several hours ago. Based on these pressure and wind observations as
well as satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt. Based on recent trends, it seems likely that
the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today.
The system has been moving erratically overnight, but recent
satellite images suggest that it is now moving northward at about 7
kt. A northward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves on the west side of a subtropical
high, taking the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina early
Saturday and over portions of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night
and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous
one and not far from the GFS and ECMWF models.
The notable strengthening that has occurred overnight is due to a
combination of baroclinic influences from the mid- to upper-level
trough just to the west of the system and the warm Gulf Stream
waters. The system will likely strengthen a little more before it
reaches the coast of North Carolina. After landfall, land
interaction, dry air, and strong shear should lead to weakening and
cause the system to transition back to an extratropical low in a
couple of days.
It should be noted that the cyclone has a large wind field, and
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well ahead of the center.
Key Messages:
1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
a large area of tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to
strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina
early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within
the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and
continuing into Saturday night.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139329
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 75.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning
for Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, the Tidal Potomac south
of Colonial Beach, and portions of the western Albemarle Sound.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the
southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and
wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to
around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a
front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more
concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min
visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer
to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the
strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the
frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a
sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this
morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity
is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10
kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward
through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the
western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of
the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning
and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The
track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the
slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC
forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the
cyclone center just inland in 24 h.
Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone
appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf
Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also
facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h
as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and
develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has
been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early
Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to
the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong
upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by
48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and
ECMWF models.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 32.3N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 23/0000Z 33.2N 76.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 23/1200Z 34.9N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 38.3N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 39.3N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 75.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning
for Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, the Tidal Potomac south
of Colonial Beach, and portions of the western Albemarle Sound.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the
southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and
wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to
around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a
front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more
concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min
visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer
to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the
strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the
frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a
sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this
morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity
is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10
kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward
through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the
western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of
the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning
and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The
track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the
slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC
forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the
cyclone center just inland in 24 h.
Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone
appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf
Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also
facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h
as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and
develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has
been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early
Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to
the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong
upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by
48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and
ECMWF models.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 32.3N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 23/0000Z 33.2N 76.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 23/1200Z 34.9N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 38.3N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 39.3N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139329
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch from Bogue Inlet to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina, has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet.
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes
today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate
that the center of the system has become better defined and is no
longer attached to fronts. The satellite presentation has evolved as
well, with the center becoming tucked under an area of deep
convection this afternoon. The radius of maximum wind has contracted
to around 50 to 60 n mi, further supporting its designation as
Tropical Storm Ophelia earlier this afternoon. Aircraft data reveal
that Ophelia has also strengthened, with the minimum pressure down
to 986 mb and reduced flight-level and SFMR winds that support an
initial intensity of 60 kt.
Ophelia is moving north-northwestward (345/11 kt) within the flow
between an upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge
over the western Atlantic. This general motion should continue
through Saturday while the center of Ophelia approaches North
Carolina and moves inland within the warning area. Thereafter, a
slight decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and
north-northeast is forecast through the weekend. There was a slight
westward shift in the near-term track guidance, and the updated NHC
forecast has been nudged in that direction toward the latest
multi-model consensus aids.
The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected
strengthening trend observed today. Most of the intensity guidance
shows little change in strength before landfall, although the global
models show additional deepening of the low. However, some
additional strengthening cannot be ruled out as Ophelia traverses
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on its approach to eastern North
Carolina. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome and
is not explicitly forecast, the increased risk warrants the issuance
of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the North Carolina coast from
north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. After landfall, the system is
expected to quickly weaken due to the combination of land
interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. Ophelia is
likely to become extratropical again in 36-48 h, with dissipation by
72 h as it becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary over the
mid-Atlantic region.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 32.9N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 34.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 36.1N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 37.6N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 38.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 39.9N 76.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch from Bogue Inlet to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina, has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet.
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes
today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate
that the center of the system has become better defined and is no
longer attached to fronts. The satellite presentation has evolved as
well, with the center becoming tucked under an area of deep
convection this afternoon. The radius of maximum wind has contracted
to around 50 to 60 n mi, further supporting its designation as
Tropical Storm Ophelia earlier this afternoon. Aircraft data reveal
that Ophelia has also strengthened, with the minimum pressure down
to 986 mb and reduced flight-level and SFMR winds that support an
initial intensity of 60 kt.
Ophelia is moving north-northwestward (345/11 kt) within the flow
between an upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge
over the western Atlantic. This general motion should continue
through Saturday while the center of Ophelia approaches North
Carolina and moves inland within the warning area. Thereafter, a
slight decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and
north-northeast is forecast through the weekend. There was a slight
westward shift in the near-term track guidance, and the updated NHC
forecast has been nudged in that direction toward the latest
multi-model consensus aids.
The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected
strengthening trend observed today. Most of the intensity guidance
shows little change in strength before landfall, although the global
models show additional deepening of the low. However, some
additional strengthening cannot be ruled out as Ophelia traverses
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on its approach to eastern North
Carolina. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome and
is not explicitly forecast, the increased risk warrants the issuance
of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the North Carolina coast from
north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. After landfall, the system is
expected to quickly weaken due to the combination of land
interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. Ophelia is
likely to become extratropical again in 36-48 h, with dissipation by
72 h as it becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary over the
mid-Atlantic region.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 32.9N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 34.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 36.1N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 37.6N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 38.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 39.9N 76.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...OPHELIA PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE...
...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...OPHELIA PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE...
...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...OPHELIA'S CENTER FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY SATURDAY...
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Recent WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show convection wrapping around Ophelia's center, which is
also embedded beneath a convective canopy in satellite imagery.
Soon after the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters measured SFMR winds to hurricane force west of the center
within the deep convection, however those winds were not measured
again on their final pass through that area. Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
Regardless, the SFMR and flight-level winds were strong enough to
support an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the estimated
intensity right now. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ophelia in a couple of hours and should
provide a final estimate of the intensity before the storm reaches
land.
The current motion is north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt.
Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is therefore expected to turn northward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days. This track will take
Ophelia's center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then
across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday night and Sunday. An additional westward shift was made
to the first 24 hours of the official track forecast, mainly due to
Ophelia's center being tugged westward by the deep convection
earlier this afternoon.
Ophelia's center is only expected to be over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream for another 6 hours or so before moving inland, so the
window for strengthening is beginning to close. It should be
stressed, however, that there is very little difference if Ophelia
reaches land as a 60-kt tropical storm or a 65-kt hurricane.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday
morning, and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24
and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia. The
system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although
the latest phase-space diagrams and simulated satellite imagery
suggest this transition could happen as soon as 24 hours. The
extratropical low is forecast to dissipate by 60 hours near the
Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within its associated
frontal zone.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 33.6N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 35.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 36.6N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 38.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0000Z 39.0N 76.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
...OPHELIA'S CENTER FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY SATURDAY...
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Recent WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show convection wrapping around Ophelia's center, which is
also embedded beneath a convective canopy in satellite imagery.
Soon after the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters measured SFMR winds to hurricane force west of the center
within the deep convection, however those winds were not measured
again on their final pass through that area. Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
Regardless, the SFMR and flight-level winds were strong enough to
support an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the estimated
intensity right now. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ophelia in a couple of hours and should
provide a final estimate of the intensity before the storm reaches
land.
The current motion is north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt.
Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is therefore expected to turn northward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days. This track will take
Ophelia's center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then
across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday night and Sunday. An additional westward shift was made
to the first 24 hours of the official track forecast, mainly due to
Ophelia's center being tugged westward by the deep convection
earlier this afternoon.
Ophelia's center is only expected to be over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream for another 6 hours or so before moving inland, so the
window for strengthening is beginning to close. It should be
stressed, however, that there is very little difference if Ophelia
reaches land as a 60-kt tropical storm or a 65-kt hurricane.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday
morning, and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24
and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia. The
system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although
the latest phase-space diagrams and simulated satellite imagery
suggest this transition could happen as soon as 24 hours. The
extratropical low is forecast to dissipate by 60 hours near the
Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within its associated
frontal zone.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 33.6N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 35.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 36.6N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 38.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0000Z 39.0N 76.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show that the center of Ophelia is approaching the North
Carolina coastline with landfall likely within the next couple of
hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
system during the last several hours and have found that central
pressure of Ophelia has dropped a few millibars to 980 mb this
morning, with highest flight-level winds on the eastern side of the
system. Using the standard surface wind reduction from flight-level
suggest that maximum surface winds are likely between 60-65 kt. The
initial intensity is held at 60 kt based on a combination of the
flight-level winds and velocity data from Doppler radar.
Ophelia's motion has been fairly erratic the past several hours as
it approaches the coast. The current estimated motion is is
north-northwestward (345 degrees) at 8 kt. Ophelia is moving around
the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and is expected to
turn more northward today and then northeastward the next few days.
On this track the center of Ophelia will move inland over North
Carolina in a few hours, and then across portions of southeastern
Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday. There was
very little change in the forecast with just a slight rightward
shift in about 36 h over the Delmarva. This forecast is in fairly
good agreement with the global model guidance.
Ophelia will be making landfall in North Carolina within a few hours
and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with steady
weakening and winds should drop below tropical-storm-force in about
a day or so. The system is forecast to become extratropical by 36
hours, although simulated satellite imagery and models suggest this
transition could happen near or just beyond 24 h. The extratropical
low will dissipate over the Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes
absorbed within a frontal zone.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area early this morning.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system may produce locally considerable
flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 34.3N 76.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 35.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 37.0N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 38.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show that the center of Ophelia is approaching the North
Carolina coastline with landfall likely within the next couple of
hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
system during the last several hours and have found that central
pressure of Ophelia has dropped a few millibars to 980 mb this
morning, with highest flight-level winds on the eastern side of the
system. Using the standard surface wind reduction from flight-level
suggest that maximum surface winds are likely between 60-65 kt. The
initial intensity is held at 60 kt based on a combination of the
flight-level winds and velocity data from Doppler radar.
Ophelia's motion has been fairly erratic the past several hours as
it approaches the coast. The current estimated motion is is
north-northwestward (345 degrees) at 8 kt. Ophelia is moving around
the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and is expected to
turn more northward today and then northeastward the next few days.
On this track the center of Ophelia will move inland over North
Carolina in a few hours, and then across portions of southeastern
Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday. There was
very little change in the forecast with just a slight rightward
shift in about 36 h over the Delmarva. This forecast is in fairly
good agreement with the global model guidance.
Ophelia will be making landfall in North Carolina within a few hours
and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with steady
weakening and winds should drop below tropical-storm-force in about
a day or so. The system is forecast to become extratropical by 36
hours, although simulated satellite imagery and models suggest this
transition could happen near or just beyond 24 h. The extratropical
low will dissipate over the Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes
absorbed within a frontal zone.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area early this morning.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from this system may produce locally considerable
flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 34.3N 76.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 35.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 37.0N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 38.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139329
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
Tropical Storm Ophelia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...
Doppler Radar images, Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface
observations indicate that Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle
in North Carolina around 615 am EDT (1015 UTC) with estimated
maximum winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).
An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 77.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi/Papin/Delgado
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...
Doppler Radar images, Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface
observations indicate that Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle
in North Carolina around 615 am EDT (1015 UTC) with estimated
maximum winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).
An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 77.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi/Papin/Delgado
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA MOVING INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 77.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA MOVING INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 77.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Since Ophelia made landfall earlier this morning, the tropical storm
has maintained a healthy appearance in radar reflectivity from both
the Morehead City and Raleigh radars, though the Doppler wind
velocities have steadily decreased as it moves further inland.
1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery depicts curved banding near the
center of Ophelia, though the coldest cloud tops on infrared imagery
have warmed from last night. The Doppler velocity data and surface
observations suggest that maximum sustained winds are down to 45 kt
this advisory, though this could be somewhat generous. However,
Ophelia continues to produce a large swath of heavy rainfall both
near and north of the current storm position, where a large region
of Flood Watches and Warnings remain in effect.
The tropical storm appears to have accelerated this morning, with
the latest estimated motion at 355/11 kt. Over the next 12-24 hours,
Ophelia is expected to begin turning northeastward as it moves into
southeastern Virginia by this evening. This motion should slow a bit
as it becomes tangled up in a frontal boundary moving into the
Delmarva Peninsula and off the mid-Atlantic coastline on Sunday. The
track forecast this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, in
best agreement with the simple and corrected track guidance.
Continued weakening is expected as Ophelia continues to move inland
across eastern North Carolina and then southeastern Virginia. On
Sunday, Ophelia's circulation is forecast to become increasingly
elongated as interacts with a pre-existing frontal boundary offshore
of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Most of the model guidance shows
Ophelia merging with the baroclinic zone in about 24 hours, marking
its transition to an extratropical cyclone, with the low ultimately
being absorbed by the frontal zone in 48-60 h, though this could
occur sooner.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable
flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 35.6N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 38.2N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1200Z 39.3N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Since Ophelia made landfall earlier this morning, the tropical storm
has maintained a healthy appearance in radar reflectivity from both
the Morehead City and Raleigh radars, though the Doppler wind
velocities have steadily decreased as it moves further inland.
1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery depicts curved banding near the
center of Ophelia, though the coldest cloud tops on infrared imagery
have warmed from last night. The Doppler velocity data and surface
observations suggest that maximum sustained winds are down to 45 kt
this advisory, though this could be somewhat generous. However,
Ophelia continues to produce a large swath of heavy rainfall both
near and north of the current storm position, where a large region
of Flood Watches and Warnings remain in effect.
The tropical storm appears to have accelerated this morning, with
the latest estimated motion at 355/11 kt. Over the next 12-24 hours,
Ophelia is expected to begin turning northeastward as it moves into
southeastern Virginia by this evening. This motion should slow a bit
as it becomes tangled up in a frontal boundary moving into the
Delmarva Peninsula and off the mid-Atlantic coastline on Sunday. The
track forecast this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, in
best agreement with the simple and corrected track guidance.
Continued weakening is expected as Ophelia continues to move inland
across eastern North Carolina and then southeastern Virginia. On
Sunday, Ophelia's circulation is forecast to become increasingly
elongated as interacts with a pre-existing frontal boundary offshore
of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Most of the model guidance shows
Ophelia merging with the baroclinic zone in about 24 hours, marking
its transition to an extratropical cyclone, with the low ultimately
being absorbed by the frontal zone in 48-60 h, though this could
occur sooner.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable
flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 35.6N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 38.2N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1200Z 39.3N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Ophelia continues to weaken as it crosses into southeastern
Virginia. The radar presentation has been gradually degrading as the
Doppler velocities continue to decrease. However, there remains a
WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound reporting surface winds between
30-35 kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass also showed
tropical-storm-force winds well to the northeast in association with
an offshore frontal boundary. Thus, Ophelia will remain a tropical
storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt for this advisory.
Ophelia is still moving northward at 360/10 kt. Little has changed
with the forecast reasoning, as Ophelia should gradually turn
northeastward over the next 12-24 hours, with the center gradually
losing definition as it begins to merge with the aforementioned
frontal boundary off the mid-Atlantic coastline. The latest track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest
NHC track forecast is quite similar, if just a touch north, of the
prior forecast. Ophelia should continue to gradually spin down
inland, though higher winds may still continue to be observed with
the frontal boundary to the system's northeast. By tomorrow, Ophelia
is expected to merge with this frontal boundary, marking its
transition to post-tropical status, with the system expected to
become fully absorbed by early next week.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
along portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward along
the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coastline within the Tropical Storm Warning
area.
2. Storm surge inundation will continue through this evening over
portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern
Virginia, including Pamlico Sound and the tidal rivers of the lower
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable
flash and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 36.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/0600Z 37.9N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 39.1N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0600Z 39.6N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Ophelia continues to weaken as it crosses into southeastern
Virginia. The radar presentation has been gradually degrading as the
Doppler velocities continue to decrease. However, there remains a
WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound reporting surface winds between
30-35 kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass also showed
tropical-storm-force winds well to the northeast in association with
an offshore frontal boundary. Thus, Ophelia will remain a tropical
storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt for this advisory.
Ophelia is still moving northward at 360/10 kt. Little has changed
with the forecast reasoning, as Ophelia should gradually turn
northeastward over the next 12-24 hours, with the center gradually
losing definition as it begins to merge with the aforementioned
frontal boundary off the mid-Atlantic coastline. The latest track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest
NHC track forecast is quite similar, if just a touch north, of the
prior forecast. Ophelia should continue to gradually spin down
inland, though higher winds may still continue to be observed with
the frontal boundary to the system's northeast. By tomorrow, Ophelia
is expected to merge with this frontal boundary, marking its
transition to post-tropical status, with the system expected to
become fully absorbed by early next week.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
along portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward along
the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coastline within the Tropical Storm Warning
area.
2. Storm surge inundation will continue through this evening over
portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern
Virginia, including Pamlico Sound and the tidal rivers of the lower
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable
flash and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.
4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 36.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/0600Z 37.9N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 39.1N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0600Z 39.6N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
Forecaster Papin
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 77.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Tropical Depression Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 77.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A
RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A
RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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