WPAC: BOLAVEN - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 231004 1800 6.5N 156.6E WPAC 15 0

[cycloneye]

The models are bullish with this one and as a longtracker.

GFS.



European.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05OCT23 0000Z, TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N
120.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N
157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 66 NM WEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH AN AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICT AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF FRAGMENTED
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W
WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z

EPS has a 890 mb member

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z

[Hayabusa]

12z eps, another sub 900 mb run

[cycloneye]

Guam NWS:


Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
753 AM ChST Fri Oct 6 2023

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY...

A developing tropical disturbance, known as Invest 98W from the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center, is currently located just west-
northwest of Pohnpei near 7N157E. All numerical guidance
continues to show this system will gradually organize as it heads
toward the Marianas, passing through this region sometime Tuesday
into Wednesday. As it approaches and passes through the area,
locally heavy showers and perhaps strong wind gusts will accompany
this feature.

Although it`s still way too early to talk about strength and track
concerns, as there`s still some decent variability amongst the
different models regarding this, one thing that looks
increasingly certain is at least locally heavy rainfall will
develop.


TIMING: Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon

RAINFALL: 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
possible.

WINDS:Strong wind gusts to 40 mph are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms that develop.

MARINE:Waves may increase into the 10 to 14 foot range as
fresh to strong sustained winds potentially develop,
with near gale force gusts possible.

IMPACTS:Potential high surf and possible coastal beach erosion.

$$

Doll

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 060130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060130Z-060600ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05OCT23 1800Z, TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.9N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTPN31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.1N 157.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 052013Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN AREA OF
DEEP CYCLONIC CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 052230Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS CLOSE IN TO THE
LLCC ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS, BUT STRONG WESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW
IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH, WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (30C) SST, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW (05-10KT) DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE
LATEST UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM POHNPEI SHOWS A WEDGE OF ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 400-600MB LEVELS WHICH IS IMPARTING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF TILT ON THE VORTEX, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW THE PACE OF
CONSOLIDATION. EVEN IN THE FACE OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT TRACKS GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N
140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 052031Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT
AN AREA OF DEEP, SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
FLARE, IT REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT 97W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED BY WARM (30C) SST, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT)
VWS, OFFSET BY POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK, WHILE DISAGREEING ON THE AREA IN WHICH THE
SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY FORM. EUROPEAN MODELS ANTICIPATE FORMATION IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL DEPICTS FORMATION TO
THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 060600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 061100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060600Z OCT 23//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 156.1E TO 9.6N 153.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 13 TO 17 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 155.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071100Z.
//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

ASCAT passes almost 12 hrs apart show the system has quickly consolidated with notable improvement of the LLC although deep convection remains slightly displaced to the north. Models have it becoming a tropical storm within the next 48-72 hrs.

[Hayabusa]

Issued at 2023/10/06 13:25 UTC
Analysis at 10/06 12 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°35′ (9.6°)
E155°00′ (155.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 10/07 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40′ (9.7°)
E154°35′ (154.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 10/08 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°55′ (9.9°)
E153°40′ (153.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 10/09 12 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°50′ (10.8°)
E150°35′ (150.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 10/10 12 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05′ (14.1°)
E147°55′ (147.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 410 km (220 NM)
Forecast for 10/11 12 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55′ (17.9°)
E144°50′ (144.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 540 km (290 NM)

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1710279888895455649

[Goomba]

 https://twitter.com/K_R_Z_Y/status/1710325964117254189

[Goomba]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The Big E essentially bombs this. Haven't seen them this aggressive in a while

[Hayabusa]

12z

[cycloneye]

Lookng very good.

[cycloneye]

NWS Guam Special Statement.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1024 AM ChST Sat Oct 7 2023

GUZ001-MPZ001>003-080030-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
1024 AM ChST Sat Oct 7 2023

...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEK...

A developing tropical disturbance, known as Invest 98W from the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center will approach and likely pass through
the Marianas Tuesday night or Wednesday (as it stands right now).

This is a developing situation, but the forecast "cone" is
starting to narrow, with a potential passage between very near or
through the Mariana Islands. IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE, forecast
variability continues and later forecasts will likely change.
What`s important to note is the trends in the data over the last
24 to 36 hours there have been an upward trend in projected
strength, indicating potentially higher sustained winds speeds
have been observed. That said, it`s still to early to specify what
wind speeds will it be as it passes through the region.

What is of more certainty is heavy rainfall and higher seas will
accompany this feature. Current estimates are for 6 to 10 inches
of rain will fall between Monday afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon, with locally higher amounts near 12 inches possible.
Seas will also build into the 14 to 18 foot range, possibly
higher.

$$

Doll

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to TD 15W.

15W FIFTEEN 231007 0000 10.3N 154.4E WPAC 25 1003