ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET says this may become a H near Bermuda: 68 knots/978 mb:

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.2N 77.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.11.2023 60 19.4N 76.3W 1003 33
1200UTC 18.11.2023 72 23.4N 72.2W 999 43
0000UTC 19.11.2023 84 29.0N 67.0W 989 53
1200UTC 19.11.2023 96 37.5N 60.9W 978 68
0000UTC 20.11.2023 108 48.0N 53.0W 979 58
1200UTC 20.11.2023 120 CEASED TRACKING

[cycloneye]

Hi Larry. I split your UKMET run post from the main discussion thread and created the models one.

[cycloneye]

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: not a H as was on the 12Z, but still maxes out as a 51 knot 984 mb TS once past Bermuda. Before that, it is near Bermuda as a solid (993 mb) TS:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 21.5N 74.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.11.2023 60 22.5N 72.7W 1002 35
0000UTC 19.11.2023 72 28.4N 67.5W 997 44
1200UTC 19.11.2023 84 34.3N 62.1W 993 46
0000UTC 20.11.2023 96 42.5N 54.4W 984 51
1200UTC 20.11.2023 108 51.5N 46.1W 988 49
0000UTC 21.11.2023 120 POST-TROPICAL

[ThunderForce]

I'm kind of curious as to why CMC is not picking it up with the trough, whereas the other major global models (GFS, Euro) plus ICON are. Even the CMC ensembles (GEPS) seem to mostly have members getting picked up.

[LarryWx]

After several runs in a row with TCG from this, the 12Z UKMET dropped TCG.