WPAC: INVEST 98W

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98W INVEST 240625 1200 6.8N 130.2E WPAC 15 0

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Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJUN2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N
128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 252203Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A POORLY ORGANIZED, YET FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH A
SMALL AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
GFS SHOWS INVEST 98W CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER MINDANAO THEN A NORTHWARD
TURN IN THE SULU SEA WHICH IS MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH THE OVERALL FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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