WPAC: SOULIK - Tropical Storm

[Hayabusa]

99W INVEST 240918 0000 16.0N 114.6E WPAC 15 1000

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 180200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/180200Z-180600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 17SEP24 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (PULASAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 396 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 172100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.3N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE LOOSELY AGREEING ON THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS, HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THEM ARE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N
114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT,
HOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET DUE TO HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) OF VWS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE SIGNS
OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 99W CONTINUES ITS TRACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[MHC Tracking]

Is now TD 16W.

[Hayabusa]

T2415(Soulik)
Issued at 2024/09/19 04:05 UTC
Analysis at 09/19 03 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°25′ (17.4°)
E107°55′ (107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 110 km (60 NM)
Forecast for 09/19 15 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10′ (17.2°)
E107°25′ (107.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 55 km (30 NM)
Forecast for 09/20 03 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05′ (17.1°)
E106°50′ (106.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Forecast for 09/21 00 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55′ (17.9°)
E105°20′ (105.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 210 km (115 NM)

[SconnieCane]

I seem to remember there was a Typhoon Soulik in 2018, but the WPAC isn't on a six-list cycle like the Atlantic and EPAC, correct? So it's just coincidence that it came up again in 2024?

[MHC Tracking]

I seem to remember there was a Typhoon Soulik in 2018, but the WPAC isn't on a six-list cycle like the Atlantic and EPAC, correct? So it's just coincidence that it came up again in 2024?

Yep, that's just the way it works out with the post-2000 AD names. Looking at the usages of unretired original names, you'll be hard pressed to finds ones which aren't 5 or 6 years apart.