ATL: GORDON - Models

[kevin]

06z ICON shows this disturbance 'winning' from Gordon. It becomes a weak TS around 48 - 60 hours and peaks at 1001 mbar at +84 hrs before becoming extra-tropical near the end of the run.

[MHC Tracking]

Per 6z EPS, decent chance this becomes the next NS over the following five days. Should see NHC chances start to rise:

[kevin]

06z EPS has 23 out of 51 members at TD strength by +48 hrs (45%) and 28 out of 51 at +96 hrs (55%). GEFS is less bullish with the system in terms of intensity, but shows even more members forming a TC, 75+%. I agree with the above post, if models continue to show this in the upcoming 12z and 00z ensembles I expect NHC to go to something like 20/50 tomorrow.