WPAC: JEBI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 240924 1800 14.0N 150.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250200Z-250600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24SEP24 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 242100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2N
149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM EAST OF GUAM. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO
THE WEST THAT IS BEING SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM, CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 95W IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW SHEAR (10-15 KTS) IN THE UPPER LEVELS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR (20-25 KTS) AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 250000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 149E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

tcfa

WTPN21 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8N 148.8E TO 18.5N 145.4E WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251430Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 251044Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH WEAK LOW-
LEVEL STRUCTURE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A SWATH OF 20 TO 25
KNOT CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES, WHICH
IS FUELING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261500Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TD b
Issued at 2024/09/26 07:05 UTC
Analysis at 09/26 06 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°20′ (16.3°)
E147°00′ (147.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 09/27 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°50′ (18.8°)
E144°30′ (144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 09/28 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°20′ (21.3°)
E141°10′ (141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 09/29 06 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°35′ (24.6°)
E138°00′ (138.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

[Hayabusa]

19W

19W NINETEEN 240926 1200 17.2N 146.8E WPAC 30 1004

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS now calling for a typhoon. This run goes to 972, stronger than the previous ones

[Hayabusa]

Jebi

T2417(Jebi)
Issued at 2024/09/27 07:10 UTC
Analysis at 09/27 06 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°00′ (18.0°)
E145°20′ (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE330 km (180 NM)
SW220 km (120 NM)
Forecast for 09/28 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°05′ (21.1°)
E142°10′ (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 120 km (65 NM)
Forecast for 09/29 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°10′ (24.2°)
E139°35′ (139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 210 km (115 NM)
Forecast for 09/30 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°40′ (27.7°)
E139°55′ (139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)
Forecast for 10/01 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°40′ (34.7°)
E143°10′ (143.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Forecast for 10/02 06 UTC
Grade LOW
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N44°30′ (44.5°)
E153°20′ (153.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (31 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 460 km (250 NM)

[mrbagyo]

How come the name Jebi didn't get retired after the 2018 season?

[Hayabusa]

How come the name Jebi didn't get retired after the 2018 season?

Japan probably didn't request it, billions of dollars in damages but low death toll.

[Hayabusa]

0930/20z pass 77 kts