WPAC: INVEST 94W

[Subtrop]

94W INVEST 241017 0000 15.7N 143.9E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

now low

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N
143.5E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF
TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 162330Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A POORLY ORGANIZED LLC
WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (15-20 KTS) WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (31 C) WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK MOVING TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Don't know which would be the dominant one 93W or 94W... but here's the 00Z...


EPS showing intense members