ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JRD]

According to surface analysis charts Post-Beryl is connected to fronts, which means that a wider area could see precipitation. The cold front should also bring some relief from high heat.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/DrKimWood/status/1811086282208203075

[USTropics]

The latest from Alvin, Brazoria County, Texas: If we ever get another dog, cat, or any other gentle critter, I can absolutely, positively guarantee that its name will NOT be "Beryl."

Lots of good-sized limbs down in our neighborhood, fences torn up, nerves shattered, and all of the "standard" effects of a direct hit from a hurricane. Luckily, the power in our part of town was out for less than a day, which was as close to something miraculous as I can imagine. A friend in Humble says that the power company's predicting that his power could be out for "weeks," and he's maybe 40 miles farther from landfall than Alvin is. I might be off base here, but after so many hurricanes taking out power for so long in places (a lot of you probably remember Ike), I would think that more would have been learned and implemented to help protect the regional grid. I'm sure that things have been done in that regard, but Beryl is a reminder that there's still a lot to do.

I now completely believe the assertion that a strengthening hurricane at landfall is worse than a weakening or even stable one. I've been through both, and this one was way worse. If one of you knowledgable folks could explain why a strengthening storm is more effective at mixing the upper-level winds down to the surface, it would save me a ton of future searching, and I'd appreciate that immensely.

Back to the #*%@! cleanup...

This would be an interesting case study, but I would believe the main culprit is the structural organization of the system. If we have a strengthening system, particularly one undergoing RI, we would expect there to be:

(1) A symmetrical storm with a healthy core. A weakening system would preclude there is some type of disruption occurring to the core (such as wind shear or dry air entrainment) that is likely causing the core to be asymmetrical

(2) A strengthening system may not be able to translate upper-level winds to sustainable surface winds, but I would imagine wind gusts are likely higher in an intensifying system as well

(3) A weakening system on landfall is more likely to become disrupted rather quickly, while a strengthening system can maintain further inland. This was actually the case with Beryl, where inbound velocities from the Houston radar showed 95-100 mph sustained winds aloft (translating to 80-85 mph at the surface) several hours after landfall

The NHC also noted this in their 10:00AM discussion

Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface
data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a
fairly well-defined eye present.

(4) Also in Beryl's case, the system exited the Yucatan peninsula with a disrupted core, but still a broad area of low pressure. While this meant it would take more time to organize, we can also see from the graphic below that this enhanced the wind field radius before landfall:


In comparison to Hurricane Harvey, where the storm was essentially starting from scratch when in entered the GOM and was able to RI to cat 4 in a remarkably short period of time, the wind field radius was not too dissimilar (but with a much higher sustained winds at the core):

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/1811745072985096220

[wxman57]

Still no power as of this morning. Got an inch of rain yesterday afternoon to really cool the house down. Slept well last night with a battery powered fan that just won't quit. Have a second arriving Sunday. Currently, we're at the office and freezing cold. It's 68 degrees in our section of the building. I always pack a coat in my car, though.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B013BOC6VC/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

[cycloneye]

Great You-Tube video summary from NOAA Satellites of the Beryl journey.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUx28L3qkWo

[ljmac75]

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/ ... d-islands/

Insurable damage estimates from Beryl. $2.5-3.5 billion in losses in Texas, wind only. Don't know how much damage there will be from flooding and surge, I don't think the surge went into super heavily populated areas.

[LadyBug72]

Beryl caused quite a mess in my neighborhood and she made some pretty eerie sounds as she came through here. Trees that stayed standing during other storms stronger than Beryl have fallen, including 3 in my yard....thankfully they were at the back of my property and no where near my house...I have someone coming today to start the process of getting them cut and removed. My family and I were without power 4 days, still consider us blessed as there are some families still without power a week later.

P.S. I knew to expect but I admit even I underestimated how strong her winds were going to be!

[cycloneye]

I have nothing to do at this time and decided to come to this Beryl thread and really it was quite amazing how it developed so fast from a wave to a cat 4 hurricane when it made landfall at CARRIACOU. The most amazing thing is that period occured on late June and well east of the islands. This image from tolakram was spectacular with the eye over the island.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like a face in that eye.