ATL: BERYL - Models

[wxman57]

I think Canadian and GFS are way too far north. Only a couple GFS ensemble members have it reaching the southern Gulf. Don't have the new CMC ensembles yet, but 00Z took it to northern Nicaragua or southern Belize. Belize landfall looks most likely. That TUTT producing strong westerly shear across the northern Gulf may be quite a barrier for it to try and cross. May or may not reach the southern BoC next Saturday.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro shifts right some up to Belize/Mexico border and winds up in the southern BoC, but before that goes across the Windward islands as only a tropical storm. The other new thing is the euro is showing the wave behind 95L now (it wasn't before)

[jlauderdal]

I think Canadian and GFS are way too far north. Only a couple GFS ensemble members have it reaching the southern Gulf. Don't have the new CMC ensembles yet, but 00Z took it to northern Nicaragua or southern Belize. Belize landfall looks most likely. That TUTT producing strong westerly shear across the northern Gulf may be quite a barrier for it to try and cross. May or may not reach the southern BoC next Saturday.

The GFS has been very aggressive, so wouldn't that help explain at least some of the North idea? I'm not saying it's correct. Your track makes more sense at this point.

[chaser1]

GFS has been pretty consistent overall which by itself is fairly impressive. I am a little concerned for the period starting around 120 hours where each GFS model run has shown significant weakening near the Tiburon peninsula. This of course makes sense if one were to assume that this would be the result of even greater land interaction or significant wind shear at some level. My concern is that I don't necessarily see the proposed storm track suggesting that land interaction as the primary cause. The storm seems to have an adequate anticyclone plus 200mb forecasts seem to be relatively benign of actual strong westerlies. Naturally, upper-level wind shear maps are not to be overly considered at longer forecast length but the 200-850 mb wind shear forecast for 120 hrs + do indicate unfavorable wind shear beginning to develop (in part due to an upper-level cut-off low forming near the N. Bahamas). Unless the LLC were to really get ground up due to passing over a greater amount of S. Hispaniola causing the mid-level vorticity to speed off toward the WNW or NW, then i'm not sure that I see the upper-level conditions depicted nearly as unsupportive of a well-developed hurricane. I'll be very curious to see if the next several forecast updates between today and tomorrow maintains the storm tracking south of Dominican Republic and perhaps only over the Haiti Tiburon peninsula, and if the GFS (and other models) slowly evolve to suggest a stronger storm north of Jamaica or approaching S. Cuba over the near-term model run updates. It's my suspicion that they might.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro has landfall in Mexico after crossing the Yucatan peninsula

[Deshaunrob17]

This is turning out to be a huge win for the GFS
1. It developed the correct wave from the beginning
2. It seem to be doing okay with intensity.Still uncertainty with intensity but a hurricane doesn’t seem far fetched before the islands.
3. It always had the idea of 2 tropical cyclones . Still iffy on this but other models are catching up to the idea too.

[Tammster]

How is the latest Euro in the short term? I'm from Palm Beach County Fl currently in an apartment 20 feet from the ocean on the west coast of Barbados through next week. No one here seems to really care about a possible hurricane hitting in a few days. Up in Fl, at this point the gas stations would be out of gas and shutters would be going up. In our rental apartment we were just told to make sure the windows were closed.


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[chaser1]

I think Canadian and GFS are way too far north. Only a couple GFS ensemble members have it reaching the southern Gulf. Don't have the new CMC ensembles yet, but 00Z took it to northern Nicaragua or southern Belize. Belize landfall looks most likely. That TUTT producing strong westerly shear across the northern Gulf may be quite a barrier for it to try and cross. May or may not reach the southern BoC next Saturday.

The GFS has been very aggressive, so wouldn't that help explain at least some of the North idea? I'm not saying it's correct. Your track makes more sense at this point.

Yup, I'm with you. I think wxman57 has the right overall view on this. Even if the GFS is sniffing out anomalous deepening, i'm not so sure that I can see it gaining the extent of latitude it's operational model suggests. At the same time, i'm not so sure that I see any TUTT having in the GOM or off SE Conus having much negative impact on intensity either. A more northward GFS suggested track would certainly be worse "juju" for the Greater Antilles and GOM region if that were to verify

[BobHarlem]

How is the latest Euro in the short term? I'm from Palm Beach County Fl currently in an apartment 20 feet from the ocean on the east coast of Barbados through next week. No one here seems to really care about a possible hurricane hitting in a few days. Up in Fl, at this point the gas stations would be out of gas and shutters would be going up. In our rental apartment we were just told to make sure the windows were closed.


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Latest euro shows it passing just south of Barbados as a tropical storm. GFS is closer to cat 3, truth is probably somewhere in the middle, so hurricane probably. I'd bet you'll have hurricane watches up there at the 11pm advisory for Monday.

[Stratton23]

12z EPS is in, still a very big spread once it reaches the yucatan peninsula

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

18z intensity guidance trending higher. I wouldn’t want to be in Cayman right now.

[Stratton23]

Some more of the hurricane models including the TVCN now shoot the gap between jamaica and western cuba with this system, interesting

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I realize I am cherry picking here but can you imagine if this verified:

[jlauderdal]

Some more of the hurricane models including the TVCN now shoot the gap between jamaica and western cuba with this system, interesting

I would say the TVCN is feeling too much of the GFS. If you believe the GFS and its intensity, no problem, the TVCN makes a little more sense. TVCN is usually very good, but even NHC goes against it sometimes, and it's rare. Interesting times, especially with the feature behind it. Although early season activity is no predictor of later season activity, the seasonal forecasters must be feeling good, and it's not even July 1.

[jlauderdal]

I realize I am cherry picking here but can you imagine if this verified:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2024062812/hwrf_mslp_wind_95L_43.png

We post models here but for the newcomers, the HWRF is notorious for overdoing intensity, 10-30+ millibars too deep isn't unusual so just be careful looking at it, it has its days of sniffing out big hurricanes but for track, nah and you need model support for looking at intensity.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Some more of the hurricane models including the TVCN now shoot the gap between jamaica and western cuba with this system, interesting

I would say the TVCN is feeling too much of the GFS. If you believe the GFS and its intensity, no problem, the TVCN makes a little more sense. TVCN is usually very good, but even NHC goes against it sometimes, and it's rare. Interesting times, especially with the feature behind it. Although early season activity is no predictor of later season activity, the seasonal forecasters must be feeling good, and it's not even July 1.

This has the vibes of something you'd see on July 28th, not June 28th.....

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Track solution is likely to be a split right down the middle between the Euro and GFS, IMHO. My hunch right now is right over Jamaica.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think people forget that when people often criticize the GFS, most often they are talking about 7+ days out. When the GFS is showing something (consistently) in the 72 to 48 hour range, it's accuracy is much higher. I said 2 days ago that the GFS showing a cyclone in 48 hrs should be given some weight...because, as we see, it has verified.

[Woofde]

GFS Intensity trended upwards again, 964 mb at the islands.

[Cpv17]

Some more of the hurricane models including the TVCN now shoot the gap between jamaica and western cuba with this system, interesting

The TVCN now has this going into the Yucatan Peninsula.