ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

So I am at 18.1, 63.1 and under a tropical storm watch.
Question is do I board up or not.

Hi Barbara. Is better to play it safe even if is not going to be a hurricane when it moves thru your area, because you never know what it will be as surprises come many times in the tropics. Board.

[Sciencerocks]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Bermuda certainly needs the rain. TS/Cat1 would be perfect.

[msbee]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

So I am at 18.1, 63.1 and under a tropical storm watch.
Question is do I board up or not.

Hi Barbara. Is better to play it safe even if is not going to be a hurricane when it moves thru your area, because you never know what it will be as surprises come many times in the tropics. Board.

Hi Luis. I am aware of surprises in the tropics lol we both know how that can happen.
Hope this passes you by.

[abajan]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

So I am at 18.1, 63.1 and under a tropical storm watch.
Question is do I board up or not.

It may be advisable to board up. Currently the system is expected to be intensifying when its center passes southwest of your location and, as Mark Sudduth has stated in some of his videos, strengthening tropical cyclones are more potent than those which are either maintaining their strength or weakening. From my understanding, intensifying tropical cyclones draw down winds from the upper atmosphere to the surface more efficiently than those which are just maintaining their intensity or weakening. I think this is one of the reasons why the damage wrought by Beryl in the Grenadines was so severe. Even though it was "only" a Cat 4 while its eye was passing over them, it was an intensifying Cat 4. So, the devastation was more akin to what one would expect from a Cat 5.

[msbee]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

So I am at 18.1, 63.1 and under a tropical storm watch.
Question is do I board up or not.

It may be advisable to board up. Currently the system is expected to be intensifying when its center passes southwest of your location and, as Mark Sudduth has stated in some of his videos, strengthening tropical cyclones are more potent than those which are either maintaining their strength or weakening. From my understanding, intensifying tropical cyclones draw down winds from the upper atmosphere to the surface more efficiently than those which are just maintaining their intensity or weakening. I think this is one of the reasons why the damage wrought by Beryl in the Grenadines was so severe. Even though it was "only" a Cat 4 while its eye was passing over them, it was an intensifying Cat 4. So, the devastation was more akin to what one would expect from a Cat 5.

Good point. Thanks

[msbee]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

So I am at 18.1, 63.1 and under a tropical storm watch.
Question is do I board up or not.

It may be advisable to board up. Currently the system is expected to be intensifying when its center passes southwest of your location and, as Mark Sudduth has stated in some of his videos, strengthening tropical cyclones are more potent than those which are either maintaining their strength or weakening. From my understanding, intensifying tropical cyclones draw down winds from the upper atmosphere to the surface more efficiently than those which are just maintaining their intensity or weakening. I think this is one of the reasons why the damage wrought by Beryl in the Grenadines was so severe. Even though it was "only" a Cat 4 while its eye was passing over them, it was an intensifying Cat 4. So, the devastation was more akin to what one would expect from a Cat 5.

Good point. Thanks

[Woofde]

There will be more time than usual for this to gain to ACE as this moves north. SSTs are cranking in the subtropics. There are even some 30C areas to the east of Bermuda, which is insane.

Probably some high-end TS or Cat 1 impacts in the Carribean, but it doesn't look too serious at the moment, which is good. Bermuda could get a smack from this though, if the track indeed does align that way.

We might end up with over 60 ACE before the bell, which is nuts.

[OuterBanker]

I was kinda hoping that it would recurve at 70w keep North of Bermuda before heading ne. That would be far enough west of Bermuda and far enough east of seus. it would produce large surf for us and great surfing conditions.

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[Teban54]

Probably some high-end TS or Cat 1 impacts in the Carribean, but it doesn't look too serious at the moment, which is good. Bermuda could get a smack from this though, if the track indeed does align that way.[/url]

FWIW, Cat 1 Fiona did enough damage to Puerto Rico that they requested requirement (submitted by the US), apparently due to heavy rainfalls. It could have been retired even without eventually slamming into Atlantic Canada. So I would definitely not sleep on impacts on the islands.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6WGQwfDMBw

[Sciencerocks]

The LLC is very broad and is clearly to the southeast of the convection...13.5/51.5...Possibly a low end tropical storm for the leewards and puerto rico but once it clears north of them heading into the Atlantic I believe the nhc intensity forecast is quite possible.

[kevin]

Here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

120 kt
2023 - Lee

105 kt
2023 - Nigel

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2024 - PTC 5
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2006 - Helene
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Irma
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

Edit: Thanks Teban54, added Nigel as well.

[Teban54]

Here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

120 kt
2023 - Lee

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2024 - PTC 5
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2006 - Helene
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Irma
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

IIRC, wasn't Nigel 2023 forecast to be a major on first advisory (and failed to become one)?

[kevin]

Here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

120 kt
2023 - Lee

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2024 - PTC 5
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2006 - Helene
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Irma
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

IIRC, wasn't Nigel 2023 forecast to be a major on first advisory (and failed to become one)?

Yes, you are correct. I just copied the list from the Lee thread and updated it, but we also had Nigel afterwards. I added it now.

[abajan]

It's moving at a good clip: 26 mph.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly was expecting this one to have developed by now. Good news for the islands, I think the odds of a hurricane strike are much lower today.

[ouragans]

Interesting detail on the 9z Discussion

Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040
indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not
have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not
well organized. However, these observations also suggest the
possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or
northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by
either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter
flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone
status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt.

[toad strangler]

It's moving at a good clip: 26 mph.

Ya that's a fast track!