EPAC: JOHN - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 98.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[Category5Kaiju]

I'll give this storm a nonzero chance of briefly reaching 130 mph before landfall.

I will admit, an EPAC storm attempting to pull off an Otis during the following year was not on my bingo card.

[Hurricane2022]

I'll give this storm a nonzero chance of briefly reaching 130 mph before landfall.

I will admit, an EPAC storm attempting to pull off an Otis during the following year was not on my bingo card.

In fact the chances are likely 0 at this moment (at least operationally)
John is just a few minutes away from Landfall.

I would like to see a bump to 110 kt on TCR.

[CrazyC83]

I'll give this storm a nonzero chance of briefly reaching 130 mph before landfall.

I will admit, an EPAC storm attempting to pull off an Otis during the following year was not on my bingo card.

In fac the chances are likely 0 at this moment (at least operationally).
I would bump it to 110 kt on TCR.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmUevFWdp

Agreed with 110 kt and also agreed that landfall is occurring now.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane John is a small hurricane per National Hurricane Center.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0232.shtml

[zeehag]

at least our monsters have small centers and only kick a few butts.... hoping the rural area hit recovers well and fast.

[Kingarabian]

GOES imagery seems to be lagging but yeah looks like we have landfall.

[cycloneye]

Landfall.

Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO...

Satellite data indicates that Hurricane John has made landfall
along the southern coast of Mexico just to the south-southwest of
Marquelia, Mexico in the state of Guerrero at around 915 PM CST
(0315 UTC). The maximum sustained winds at landfall are estimated
to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is
estimated at 959 mb (28.32 inches). This makes John a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.


SUMMARY OF 920 PM CST...0320 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Astromanía]

It seems major landfalls on Epac are more common than previous years

[zeehag]

landfall 2120, or 920 pm. as cat 3 cane. i hope the place and people are ok.

[Teban54]

For the second year in a row, an EPAC landfalling major hurricane was not even forecast to become a hurricane at all, just 18 hours before it reached MH intensity.

Otis, 15 hours before MH in TCR (18z 10/24), and 18 hours before operational MH (21z):

INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.4N 98.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.5N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

John, 18 hours before operational MH (03z 9/24):

INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[doomhaMwx]

Got a SAR pass at 00:48Z, a couple of hours before landfall. Max winds here are 105 kts. Adds more support that it was a borderline cat 3-4 (110-115 kts) at or just before landfall.

[zeehag]

so john took a tour of alcaputo bay and is expected to get back to pacific and do what??? this lil guy has become a tourist of mexicio...

[Kingarabian]

NHCZ highlighting how difficult the forecast track has been.

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of John Special Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
low-level center of John has dissipated. Therefore, the system
is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC
advisory. However, an elongated trough partly associated with
John's remnants appears to be forming off the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico. This system is now included in the Tropical
Weather Outlook with a medium chance of development.

Regardless of whether or not John re-forms or a new system
develops, heavy rainfall with the potential for significant flooding
is likely during the next several days over portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 17.7N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

[Kingarabian]

Models show either John or a new system deepening before a second Mexico landfall

[Subtrop]

EP, 95, 2024092500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1020W, 30, 1001, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 110, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026, SPAWNINVEST, ep782024 to ep952024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep952024.dat

[CrazyC83]

Models show either John or a new system deepening before a second Mexico landfall

I believe it would still be John if it redeveloped.

[Landy]

Euro gets this down to 979 mb with landfall in a little less than 3 days. NHC up to 70/70 but once again very well could be a tropical cyclone already. This needs PTC ASAP